Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
I would like to point out there is no direct evidence that the Chinese really ever intended to serial build any boomer design in the sense "serial" is normally understood where a sizeable number of nearly identical boats is built in a short span of time.
Actually, IMHO, what they have done with the Type 054A frigates and are in the process of doing with the Type 052D DDGs indicates that this is there intent.
They may have always intended to create a fleet of several small classes of just around 2 boats each, separated by 7-10 years, evertually reaching a steady state of around 7-8 operational boats in 4-5 classes. (assuming operational life for each class of 30 years). This is not most cost efficient, but it does avoid block absolescence.
You also can avoid block obsolescence by having a mature enough base to produce cutting edge technology with the desing built to reach forecasted technological advances over its life.
The Chinese have not acheived cutting edge trechnological status in their current nuclear submarine designs, so they are using a small build batch, multiple new class method to get there.
In this way they move their technology base and manufacturing forward so ultimately they can build a class vessel that could be serially constructed (albeit for the PLAN, right now a serially produced SSBN would probably max out at probably six to eight vessels) which had the capability to come out of the chute at the edge of the current technological curve, and be able to be updated over its service life to remain there.
This is the ideal, and it is one that China, along with every other large maritime power, seeks to achieve for its major combatants for the obvous cost benefit reasons, both during the construction period and over the life of the vessels during maintenance.
I expect that the Chinese will get there. Clearly, when they do, they will build that new class over many years and during that build cycle (as the US does) continue to add upgrades to the basic design as they replace the older design boats.
Then, when the actual hull has reached its capacity to be improved and the technologies forecasted for the future require it, they will come out with a new class and start that process over again.
There is no reason why, once they reach that level of maturity, they cannot fold in the serially produced, mature vessel into the end of life of the existing, older, less mature class vessels that were built getting them there. Once they have, they are then on a newer, much more efficient, and cutting edge plane.
