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[jobjed]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

If NK ceases to exist, the United States would have no legitimate reason for maintaining forces on the Korean peninsula as the reason they have a presence there is to deter an attack by the North. Should both Korea's unite into a single entity; a defense pact between Korea and China is both possible and desirable. the Chinese and Koreans know better than anyone else the barbarism of the Japanese. Am I alone nauseated at the sight of Japanese naval vessels flying their battle flag?

The US will definitely not leave the Korean peninsula of their own accord regardless of the existence of North Korea. China and Russia are on the border of North Korea and are in close proximity to South Korea, it's the perfect vantage point to launch espionage activities. Why on earth should the US leave a place where the inhabitants are expendable and at the same time, is suitable as a FOB for intelligence gathering? And yes, the inhabitants of the Korean peninsula are expendable to the US, why should they not be? Only US citizens matter to the US, and Koreans are not US citizens.

In addition, do you honestly believe the US gives a flying poop whether its presence in a region is "legitimate" or not? If it's in their interest and within their ability to do so, then they will go to a place, stay there and no military in the world can make them move. In the hypothetical scenario that North Korea does collapse, the US will just make up another excuse that their troops are there to ensure the safety and stability of the peninsula and to safeguard "Korean" interests in the face of an "aggressive" China and/or Russia.

 

[Phead128]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

China has $3.3 trillion dollars in foreign reserves.

Korea needs $1-4 trillion dollars to rebuild North Korea after unification. (This amount will bankrupt(!)South Korean economy - she needs external (read: FOREIGN) aid to assist in nation-building in North Korea, because she cannot do it alone without bankrupcy)

Whichever country (US or China) that can provide low-interest loans and financial aid for the reconstruction of Unified Korea, is the nation that Korea will bandwagon with.

So what if America has a strong military in the region, it's $$$$ that Unified Korea needs, and it's $$$$ that China has a lot of, which the U.S. doesn't have or is even remotely capable of competing against China in terms of financial firepower needed.

 

[Surgeon]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

The US will definitely not leave the Korean peninsula of their own accord regardless of the existence of North Korea. China and Russia are on the border of North Korea and are in close proximity to South Korea, it's the perfect vantage point to launch espionage activities. Why on earth should the US leave a place where the inhabitants are expendable and at the same time, is suitable as a FOB for intelligence gathering? And yes, the inhabitants of the Korean peninsula are expendable to the US, why should they not be? Only US citizens matter to the US, and Koreans are not US citizens.

In addition, do you honestly believe the US gives a flying poop whether its presence in a region is "legitimate" or not? If it's in their interest and within their ability to do so, then they will go to a place, stay there and no military in the world can make them move. In the hypothetical scenario that North Korea does collapse, the US will just make up another excuse that their troops are there to ensure the safety and stability of the peninsula and to safeguard "Korean" interests in the face of an "aggressive" China and/or Russia.

I concur with your assessment

 

[advill]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

The title of this thread is changed to "Build-Up" which is much better than "Militarism" which is a misnomer connoting that the Japanese are PRESENTLY the Villains. We know that China has extensively built-up their Armed Forces for whatever political, security or military reasons during the past decades. Of course there have been commentaries inc. "Vigorously stepping-up its Economic & Military Power". However, if China's Armed Forces, including its PLA-N DOES NOT start serious hostilities in sea territorial disputes, it would be fair to comment that PRC's Navy is a benign force for the moment. Same reasoning applies with the Japanese Armed Forces which have taken steps to boost the defenses of their country and territories, and not invade other territories. All these rhetorics by nations have to be examined clearly and objectively, and hopefully be settled by diplomatic means where possible. But if there is NO headway, military analysts including the Chinese Seasoned Warrior of Old "Sun Tzu" expounded : "Never Underestimate your Opposition (Enemy)" - do it at your peril when the shooting starts.

If NK ceases to exist, the United States would have no legitimate reason for maintaining forces on the Korean peninsula as the reason they have a presence there is to deter an attack by the North. Should both Korea's unite into a single entity; a defense pact between Korea and China is both possible and desirable. the Chinese and Koreans know better than anyone else the barbarism of the Japanese. Am I alone nauseated at the sight of Japanese naval vessels flying their battle flag?

 

[usaf0314]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

China has a mutual defence treaty with NK, so like it or not, if NK is invaded without cause, China would be treaty bound to come to NK's defence. The upshot is the treaty expires in 2020, and I seriously doubt China would renew it after then.

Regarding Korean reunification, the issue at hand is one of balance and cost. The two Koreas cannot reunify unless both China and America sign off. China will never allow SK to swallow NK if SK is allied to America and reunification under SK means US military bases right across from the Chinese boarder.

Reunification under NK is such a none starter it is not even worth discussing.

The only way the two Koreas would reunify is with China's blessing and support and American acquiescence, and the only way China would agree to reunification under SK is if it got cast iron assurances about the new unified Korea's allegiances.

Right now, neither SK or China trust each other enough to ditch the current, respective allies and jump into bed together, but a newly militarising Japan could easily be the catalyst both sides needs to overcome their differences and mistrust.

The main reason China will never "sign off" for SK to swallow NK is going to be mainly due to the involvement of the United States. U.S. want drama in the Korean Peninsula so it can create excuses for U.S. military buildup in the Pacific to keep tabs on China and Russia. However when push come to shove, any conflict that involves China(i.e. island dispute) militarily, U.S. will stay far away from and remain neutral on the issue. China and SK has little reason to antagonize each other since both nation has lived in relative peace politically for a long period of time and both are victims of Japanese Invasion, and both has island disputes against Japan. Now as for SK swallowing NK, it is not possible right now. NK's current economic condition and its development state is on the verge of collapse, SK will be at a huge economic loss due to refugees(pretty much the entire NK population) and building infrastructure. no doubt China would help in this regard, but SK will still take an enormous hit economically, especially with the current state of the global economy.



I think the main focus right now discussing this military build-up is what are the boundaries drawn by article 9. and how many has been broken, and how long before the entire constitution is revised to allow japan to have a traditional military. Currently, all laws has been broken(or revised for loopholes) with the exception of a few such as nuclear armament.

Most of the current aggression of military build-up started with the start of the 21st century. First there was organizational structure. The JSDF was originally assigned as an Agency, in 2000 it was upgraded to Ministry. This upgrade in status allow the JSDF play a more direct role in Japan's internal politics.

From here, article relating to "no deployment of troops on foreign soil" was broken as U.S. allowed Japan to send JSDF Logistical Squadron to Iraq in 2004.

And recently, during the South China Sea dispute, Japan has offered to supply patrol boats and naval vessels to the Philippines and Vietnam. Therefore breaking the No Arms Trade article, of course the excuse this time was Japan is not selling the vessels, they are donating them...

Lastly, Japan is not allowed to have oversea projection capabilities with its JSDF, that is not what the new so called "Helo Destroyers" which are carriers with a fancy name.

I guess the question is, where is the bottom line? of course right now U.S. support Japan's decision in its buildup, but where do we draw the line. And how will its neighbor react to this build up? Obviously the Vietnamese and especially the Philippines government has forgotten the pain since japan is giving them toys to play around with.

 

[usaf0314]

Re: Japan's military build-up

sorry, double post

 

[Franklin]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

ROFL

Japan's dire demographic & economic problems do not lend well to a "Return to Militarism".

Exactly, too many people here ignore the economic reality of Japan and the economic cost of a military buildup for Japan.

 

[Kurt]

Re: Japan's military build-up

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This blog article explains final arms spurts. Who is better at building much functional military equipment in the two years prior to a wwar enters with a major advantage of an all modern force. It's a reason to worry about military spending if war is coming within 2 yeras and the arms race has begun. Money spent in peacetime on lots of equipment is lost and makes only outdated stuff available when required. The article doess not mention that you need some skills and organization to integrate the latest weapons (or you have problems like the Soviets prior to WWII).

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Public debt can be of many kinds and I don't know why Japan has no inflation to reduce their debt. Are they trying very hard to avoid becoming a world power that dwarfs Russia?

 

[Surgeon]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

Exactly, too many people here ignore the economic reality of Japan and the economic cost of a military buildup for Japan.

The reason for Japan's wars of aggression in the 30's was the need to feed it's military machine, it's dreams of empire. Japan lacked the raw materials which were a prerequisite for military adventures. One can argue that in this respect, nothing has changed. I think the fundamental issue is not so much the scale of Japan's build up; how many extra aircraft or ships it provides to it's military, but one of perception, of attitude. Contrast Japan's perception of itself as the victim of aggression, not the instigator of it, to Germany's acceptance of it's role in starting the 2nd World War. In Germany today, it is an offense to deny the events of the Holocaust; contrast that to Japan's total failure to acknowledge it's crimes, to omit them from it's history books. What has Japan ever done for the United States? Launch an attack without warning or justification, and in modern times; destroy it's auto industry. My regret is that the United States will find itself on the wrong side of history.

 

[thunderchief]

Re: Japanese Return to Militarism!

The reason for Japan's wars of aggression in the 30's was the need to feed it's military machine, it's dreams of empire. Japan lacked the raw materials which were a prerequisite for military adventures. One can argue that in this respect, nothing has changed. I think the fundamental issue is not so much the scale of Japan's build up; how many extra aircraft or ships it provides to it's military, but one of perception, of attitude. Contrast Japan's perception of itself as the victim of aggression, not the instigator of it, to Germany's acceptance of it's role in starting the 2nd World War. In Germany today, it is an offense to deny the events of the Holocaust; contrast that to Japan's total failure to acknowledge it's crimes, to omit them from it's history books. What has Japan ever done for the United States? Launch an attack without warning or justification, and in modern times; destroy it's auto industry. My regret is that the United States will find itself on the wrong side of history.

Japanese are smarter then Germans in this regard - they didn't fall in that guilt trip trap . In reality , human history is full of so called "wars of aggression" . You always have nations that want to keep something (conservative powers) and nations that want to get something (revisionist powers). Sometimes one side wins , and sometimes other . It is dynamics of human history .

Japanese error in this particular moment of time is that they want to be revisionist power , to get something they lost in WW2 . In reality , not only they cannot achieve that , they will have tough time to keep their current position in East Asia . Both economics and demographics are not on their side , so they made head for catastrophic defeat .