China's Space Program News Thread

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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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The time is right for ‘rules of the road’ in the cosmos
By Michael Krepon, Published: August 17
China is at the cusp of its “SALT moment” with the United States. Moscow and Washington were at a similar juncture in 1969, when the strategic arms limitation talks got underway. President Richard Nixon and General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev decided to try to stabilize a competition in which both superpowers were poised to multiply their strategic offensive forces. The United States was on the verge of deploying national ballistic-missile defenses as well.

The odds of success were limited, since neither country had a history of substantive engagement on these issues or of coordinating government positions for complex negotiations of this kind. When the talks began, SALT critics accused U.S. diplomats of negotiating against the Pentagon and with the Kremlin, while military members of the Soviet delegation warned U.S. officials against revealing “secrets” to Russian diplomats.

Nevertheless, in less than three years, Washington and Moscow reached an interim agreement on offensive forces and conclude the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The former was deeply flawed and the latter quickly lost Republican support. Yet these agreements helped keep the Cold War from becoming hot and, in due course, provided the foundation for much deeper and more stabilizing nuclear arms reductions.

China’s SALT moment with the United States will not involve nuclear arms control and reduction treaties. U.S. and Chinese nuclear arsenals are too dissimilar in size for negotiations, and Beijing is too sensitive about transparency to negotiate verifiable nuclear restraints, let alone arms reductions. Instead, it will focus on space, where the competition is heating up and the stakes are high. What happens in space will heavily influence whether relations between China and the United States become more dangerous or more cooperative.

The space and nuclear domains cannot be separated, one reason the SALT accords and subsequent treaties between Washington and Moscow contained provisions protective of monitoring satellites. When superpower space programs took worrisome turns — such as the Soviet testing of anti-satellite weapons in the 1970s or the Reagan administration’s Strategic Defense Initiative in the 1980s — nuclear negotiations either were badly impaired or ground to a halt. When the two governments accepted tacit restraints in space, they were able to reach agreements limiting and reducing nuclear arsenals.

China and the United States are becoming more dependent on satellites for national and economic security, and both have demonstrated the ability to destroy them. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) used a missile to destroy an aging Chinese satellite in 2007; the Pentagon demonstrated this capability against a failed U.S. intelligence satellite the following year. China’s anti-satellite test, labeled as an “experiment,” created a debris field that will endanger satellites and manned space flight for decades. Washington characterized its test, which did not create a hazardous debris field, as a public safety measure.

Space is becoming crowded with satellites and debris. All major space-faring nations can use ballistic missiles, missile defense interceptors, lasers and jammers to interfere with or destroy satellites. These capabilities provide the basis for mutual deterrence — or for the nullification of the benefits offered by this global commons.

The absence of rules of the road in space jeopardizes international, national and economic security. Three sets of rules are particularly important — norms that support debris mitigation, those that support space-traffic management and those that bar purposeful, harmful interference of objects in space. The need for these rules was further highlighted in February 2009, when a dead Russian satellite collided with a functioning U.S. communication satellite. Norms against reckless behavior exist on highways, the high seas and in the air — but not in space.

A major space treaty is not in the cards because “space weapons” can’t be properly defined and verified: Too many multipurpose technologies and military capabilities can be redirected against satellites. Calling for wide-ranging, unverifiable treaties addressing space is like championing agreements for “General and Complete Disarmament,” just like leaders in Moscow and Washington used to do before they were ready to engage in serious talks like SALT.

The Obama administration, the European Union, Japan, Australia and other countries are ready to agree on a code of conduct for responsible space-faring nations. China is calling for an unverifiable treaty banning the use of military capabilities in space — capabilities that the PLA is hard at work developing. Moscow has aligned itself with Beijing but is now hinting at a more pragmatic approach.

A window of opportunity is opening around a code of conduct if China’s leaders can bring the PLA on board, and if Republican leaders can see the wisdom of this initiative.

Well since the US has technological superiority in space, this artcle is just making a threat to China to stop or else... Or else what? If China didn't show the capability of knocking out satellites, would the US not think twice about destroying Chinese or anyone elses satellites. It's like pollution. Pollution wasn't a big deal when the developed world was behind the vast majority of it. It's only now it's a threat to all of humanity when China literally polluted one spec more of carbon than the reigning champion polluter, the US. The threat shows their cards that despite the technological bravado, it's the Achilles Heel that levels the playing field. China has been calling for a treaty regarding these issues despite what the article argues that everyone else has been ready except China. Oh yeah the transparency excuse so it's all China's fault that they want all access to whatever China is doing yet don't do the same for China the other way around because it's about "national security." So that tells you any treaty is about preventing China from being able to do what they do. This treaty is about stopping China from further developing these technologies. They want to preserve their capablities and the right to use them. They don't want to wait until China has equaled the playing field and then they have to reign in their capabilities to negotiate any sort of treaty. It's llike the land-mine treaty. The US won't sign until they develop an alternate that everyone else doesn't have and then they'll sign. But blame it all on China in the mean time. We just had the Olympics and allegations of cheating. There's no one test for all cheating methods. They can only test for known methods. So when new ways of cheating are developed, they are legally not cheating and only wrong after it has been declared illegal and used. They have to be known and a test developed to detect. And how do they know about the new method? When it's already trickled down to everyone else and then they declare it illegal. Same logic. It only becomes illegal when everyone else has the means of doing it. But unlike space technology, there's no new alterantive to move to so easily. So it ends up they have to openly declare who can do it and who can't and not hiding behind how mutually wrong it is for anyone to do it. Notice how this SALT agreement that China has to initiate doesn't deal with nukes like mentioned. They're not going to touch that as part of the argreement because the US has overwhelming advantage in the number of nukes compared to China.

In a sane world, everyone can do itor no one can do it. What does China have to lose by not intiating this treaty as ordered? Like the whole long list of other complaints have rallied them against China before? And what here alarms them is about technology floating around in space and not lives that are directly threatened. Like China is going to give up something that will eliminate advantges they have and negotiate how more vulnerable China is going to be to them. Sounds like the mentality of the Roman Empire.
 
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jackliu

Banned Idiot
I don't see anything wrong here, if the role is reversed China will do the same thing, the rules are written by the ones in power to keep their power. What China is doing is simply beating the established power at their own game. And one day, when China is on top of the world, I have no doubt they will do the same thing, maybe not as that bad hopefully.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Of course there's nothing wrong with it. Just don't expect any results because of it. Like I said... what are they going to do if China doesn't accept an imbalance in their favor?
 

J-XX

Banned Idiot
Of course there's nothing wrong with it. Just don't expect any results because of it. Like I said... what are they going to do if China doesn't accept an imbalance in their favor?

They will continue to cry about it and show their frustration and anger at the fact that china is catching up with them and even beating them in many areas.
Let them cry, shows china is succeeding.
 

escobar

Brigadier
SZ-9 exhibition in Hong Kong

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