Re: New Generation Fighter
Interesting analysis, but I wonder why the J-20 can't be used for anti-ship as you say.
First, you get a very rough position of the CVBG via satellite, OTH radar, long-range UAV or sonar.
Then you fly in a few J-20. The CVBG will not be emitting as its trying to hide. Neither side will have an easy time finding each other, but mostly likely J-20 will find the CVBG first since it's so much bigger.
Once J-20 finds the CVBG, they each fire one small but advanced ASM at <100 km range and turn tail.
J-20 is optimized for S-band stealth (among others) and SM-2 will not be able to lock onto it. EP-3 can't track it effectively either. Nor can F/A-18 deal with it.
The small but advanced ASM uses ramjet and travels at high supersonic speeds. In 1 to 2 minutes it impacts the carrier. The small size is compensated by a tactical nuclear warhead. Point defenses like SeaRAM can't handle too many of these incoming at once.
If they have a small but advanced ASM that is. I don't think there will be any supersonic anti ship missiles in the near future which can fit into the weapon bays of 5th gen fighter aircraft.
Also the use of tactical nukes effectively gives you world war three (GG) -- China won't be using nukes unless it's a "all the sh*t hits the fan" scenario.
I also doubt an overlapping environment of many Aegis, Hawkeye and CAP won't be able to detect a flight of stealth fighters closing in, espicially if it's to within 100 km. (And why mention EP-3, it's an ELINT platform not a AWACS/AWEC)
This whole J-20 vs CBG scenario depends on too many variables -- detection via sonar, uav, OTH and the like, the ability of J-20 to penetrate an IADS and CAP at sea and get within a dangerously close kill envelope, the size and capability of the missiles (let's assume small subsonic, conventional warhead at the moment. We don't know of any supersonic AShM at the moment)... and then fire off the missiles and turn tail, where their higher RCS hindquarters will be visible to all the remaining ships and aircrafts radar.
I doubt the number of AShMs able to be carried by a flight of J-20's -- if any -- can cripple let alone sink a carrier.
And all this again depends on whether the weapons bay is deep enough to fit AShMs and if China has any AShMs able to fit in there.
The risk of sending in your premier, stealthy air superiority fighter is massive and the chances of all them coming back is slim. Why gamble with expensive J-20s when you can use equally capable JH-7As or H-6 variants instead, which can fire missiles with longer range so they don't need to enter the danger zone?
(Or ASBM, land based AShM, sub launched AShM, or even just a submarine itself)