2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
the war is over, looks like Trump capitulated, it seems Trump just talks tough, the deal greatly favour Iran...
Iran cannot lower it's guard, it need to develop a full counter arsenals that can hit Israel and US planes/ships, plus all their interests in the middle east. Example data center, hotels, air/seaports, radar stations. Means, introduction of sea skimming missiles/torpedoes into playbook. Advance drones, quick launch ballistic missiles, anti-air missiles. The straits of Hormuz defacto control as compensation for sanctions done by countries. Means, collecting the toll payment from any ships origin country that implement sanctions on them. Must be some formula, economic payment. Let says, country A confiscate their asset due sanction, Iran will collect the confiscate sanction money from the country ships. This is fair reciprocal. All those UN rules, talks, regulations are basically nonsense anyway. Hard facts on the ground determine the rules of the game.
Iran is probably secretly hoping for a US victory in Cuba, that would take away any incentive for Trump to come back and risk another brutal exchange hoping for a "win". let him get his win somewhere else.
Despite all the news of possible peace which the stock market somehow believes( AI stock trading on media algorithms), Iran should really push hard for a victory instead of a mediocre peace. Their current advantage in drone warfare will lose its edge over time as defences and tactics will steadily improve. FPV drones is a godsend to poorer nations to fight back against richer nations right now but this can change.
It's only a matter of time until the war fully resumes. This is the conflict that was in the pipeline for more than two decades. No way US will back out without a major victory (balkanization and vassalization of Iran).
It's to Iran's luck/benefit that the initial plans of US failed, namely a popular uprising led by the Monarchists, Arabs waging war on Iran and a Kurdish insurrection. US is surely organizing a Plan B (which doesn't revolve around ending hostilities and probably not a full ground invasion). My guess is: US is trying to recruit a regional player to commit to long-term hostilities against Iran. UAE looks likely but they don't got much of a punch. Perhaps, anti-Shia outfits in Iraq to destabilize the region more?
It's to Iran's luck/benefit that the initial plans of US failed, namely a popular uprising led by the Monarchists, Arabs waging war on Iran and a Kurdish insurrection. US is surely organizing a Plan B (which doesn't revolve around ending hostilities and probably not a full ground invasion). My guess is: US is trying to recruit a regional player to commit to long-term hostilities against Iran. UAE looks likely but they don't got much of a punch. Perhaps, anti-Shia outfits in Iraq to destabilize the region more?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Seems Iran has still somehow not learnt the basic lesson that against an opponent like Trump, any sign of weakness will only incite more attacks.
The Iranians should have overreacted to the American salami slicing probing attacks, which was the only possible way to pre-empt a gradual resumption of the war in full.
At a minimum they should have spammed ballistic missiles at the U.S. air base used to launch the probing attack with the aim of causing maximum damage and loss to U.S. lives possible. I would have said even going after the Burke docked in Qatar would have been a fair game if it was still there at the time of the attack. Point is Iran should have had a big list of targets and attack options all lined up and ready to go immediately, and it’s response should have been far sooner to make it abundantly clear that Salami slicing is a total no go for the Americans.
Ceasefire deal? Peace deal? Extension 60 days? NONSENSE!! Again, the more you hear this peace deal, all these talks nonsense, the more Iran need to prepare because the enemies are preparing and waiting for opportunity. One thing I hope the IRGC regional commanders do, is do a "pre-emptive" strikes first. This makes the US Israel and their gangs calculation very difficult. Gain the starter opportunity and once sees the opening strike first....Use whatever excuse you want to use later, for defensive, because of being provoked or whatever nonsense excuse/reason you can think off. Just mouth it out. If you don't have idea, just use AI to think of the excuses for you. The idea is you want to unbalance your enemies and rocked the chess pieces/traps they layout. You gain the upperhand and strike pre-emptively the location of your own choosing and time of your choosing. Don't wait for their plan, you execute first. Make their calculation more complex, be more unpredictable yourself...more unpredictable then Trump and you play back the stock markets. You already sanctioned, what's the use of the global economy or stock market right? All those market nonsense has no meaning for you, they might be benefitting other countries, but to you already under sanction, I say to hell with them.....when the oil prices going down, you fire a couple of ballistic missiles at US allies oil refineries. You see the US officers having secret meetings with the GCC...you shoot the drones at them, you see concentration of oil KC135 tankers at Israel air bases...just fire 4 or 5 ballistic missiles at it...under pretext they are preparing to attack you first. This will make Trump has sleepless nights and the midterm calculation complex and whatever Pentagon planning more complex. The stock market roller coaster, gaming the market traders that have insider information difficult to predict. They bet up, you make it down.....they short it, you suddenly announce peacedeal is imminent in 1 hour....the one has "insider" information is the real IRGC commanders to decide the market trend.....why play their games and strategy that they are so familiar with. You make your game, you make the paradigm and war planning, negotiation shift.....be smart IRAN!!
Also you are the LORD of this Region....all which in your domain, you are the master. US is just a country far away across the ocean, even when they want to attack you, hell of logistic and expenses to pay. And I tell you with their debt in their economy, they are just a scare crow.....all bark and little bites. Your base, Zagros mountains, your people and ballistics, drones are the kings of this area. And you can cause them hell of a pain, not them directly, their ilk, their allies, their business investmests in the region.....blow it all up. Show that you are, not king of the world....but here at least You are the Lord of the mighty Persian empire and master of this land here. Keep it up.
Also you are the LORD of this Region....all which in your domain, you are the master. US is just a country far away across the ocean, even when they want to attack you, hell of logistic and expenses to pay. And I tell you with their debt in their economy, they are just a scare crow.....all bark and little bites. Your base, Zagros mountains, your people and ballistics, drones are the kings of this area. And you can cause them hell of a pain, not them directly, their ilk, their allies, their business investmests in the region.....blow it all up. Show that you are, not king of the world....but here at least You are the Lord of the mighty Persian empire and master of this land here. Keep it up.
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