It is possible what was said was intentionally vague/misleading (to hype out the "threat" as the americans do regularly), perhaps the number refers to both subs commissioned from 2024 onwards (which means launched by 2023 or earlier) as well as subs launched from 2024 to date.
09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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I believe he said "12 subs including nuclear powered ones." which infers non-nuclear ones are included in that tally.
Good call on Hangor subs. Its possible.
I can't find the mention of 3 041s in the testimony there. Do you have a page or a timestamp?
Also, does anyone have actual photos of further 094 in the launch dock or is it all a matter "its possible"?
Its not just copernicus data, various think tanks or janes would buy photos from additional satellites if such a launch event happened.
Re 3 x 041s actually no I don't and I can't find it either, it was someone posting on here that mentioned it. The only hard number I can find is 10 SS(B)N in 5 years (page 12 lines 12-15).
We know there is at least 1 041 so the other 2 could either be 039C or 041, if not Hangors.
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Thanks. The whole transcript has some interesting bits.
Kuiken, career politician, said china launched 10 nuke subs in last 5 years and 3 in 5 years prior to that. (2021 to 2025 and 2016 to 2020? Personal guess of what he meant)
Admiral brookes said:
Today china has 6 ssbns.
He said by 2027 china will have 70 subs in total.
By 2035 it will have 80, with half being nuclear.
By early 2040s china will have 10 ssbns.
He also said china is moving from conventional and nuclear sub construction to nuclear sub construction only. And he explcitly mentioned there the small form nuke sub with conventional like capabilities but long endurance. (The so called 041)
Not sure about kuiken's claim. 10 nuke subs seems like one too many unless first 041 is counted, which is entirely plausible. An added hypothetical 094 would then go over 10 subs.
3 subs in 2016 to 2020 however seems too many? 2 094 were launched in said period. (On top of 4 launched prior) And all 093a were launched prior unless there is a 5th 093a out there, somehow.
Kuiken, career politician, said china launched 10 nuke subs in last 5 years and 3 in 5 years prior to that. (2021 to 2025 and 2016 to 2020? Personal guess of what he meant)
Admiral brookes said:
Today china has 6 ssbns.
He said by 2027 china will have 70 subs in total.
By 2035 it will have 80, with half being nuclear.
By early 2040s china will have 10 ssbns.
He also said china is moving from conventional and nuclear sub construction to nuclear sub construction only. And he explcitly mentioned there the small form nuke sub with conventional like capabilities but long endurance. (The so called 041)
Not sure about kuiken's claim. 10 nuke subs seems like one too many unless first 041 is counted, which is entirely plausible. An added hypothetical 094 would then go over 10 subs.
3 subs in 2016 to 2020 however seems too many? 2 094 were launched in said period. (On top of 4 launched prior) And all 093a were launched prior unless there is a 5th 093a out there, somehow.
So 15 years to build 4 SSBN? Is he assuming that older subs will be retired or are his projections that pessimistic?
they launched 6 type 094 SSBNs in 24 years. we have 14 years till 2040. he probably just looked at that number of years and thought "14÷24=0.583 , 0.583*6=3.5 rounded up to 4 SSBNs till 2040"
Some brewed thoughts on the 09VI SSBN, within the context of whatever information and rumors that have percolated through the internet in the past few years:
On the construction timeline
My guesstimate is that the first boat will be launched no earlier than late 2026 but most likely in 2027 (perhaps 2028 if there are delays). This is based on a few clues that we've gotten in the near past:
I see a lot of comparisons being made between a notional 09VI SSGN version and the Ohio-class SSGN. It is worth noting that the Ohio-class SSGNS were not actually purposely-built. They are the result of the USN choosing to reduce its SSBN fleet down to 14 boats after 18 have already been built, partly due to treaties with Russia. In fact, the four "extra" boats were initially slated to be retired prior to being reactivated for SSGN conversion. AFAIK, these Ohio SSGNs are the only SSGNs that are built from SSBN hulls. Even the Russians have seemingly delegated SSGN tasks to their Yasen SSNs so as to combine the SSN/SSGN roles into one hull.
If China really wanted, she could commission a "stretched" variant of the 09V or even convert the old 09IVs into SSGNs, but given the emphasis of the PLAN on anti-shipping rather than expeditionary land-attack duties, these are unlikely prospects. For the time being, given the doctrine of the PLAN and the naval force structure that supports it, 24 VLS cells on the 09IIIB and 09V would be more than sufficient.
On the construction timeline
My guesstimate is that the first boat will be launched no earlier than late 2026 but most likely in 2027 (perhaps 2028 if there are delays). This is based on a few clues that we've gotten in the near past:
- The first tender for an assembly platform that supports a 14-meter-diameter hull (and for the demolition of older assembly platforms) was published in January 2023.
- A second tender was announced in January 2026; I wonder if this is for a follow-on hull or an indication that more halls of the facility are now being dedicated to 09VI construction.
- There are reports that components for a "large pressure hull" were spotted in November 2023 (). Does anyone have satellite images of these supposed components?
- The time from initial assembly to launch is generally about 3-4 years. This is actually consistent with both US and Chinese sub development in the recent past, with the exception of a few cases.
- The subsystem tenders for the 09V submarine date back to as recent as the end of 2022. If we assume that the 09VI follows a similar time frame in terms of construction and assembly, a 2027 launch wouldn't be unreasonable.
- Historically-speaking, Chinese SSBNs have followed SSNs closely in terms of construction and commission dates. AFAIK, the first 09IV was launched not more than two years after the first 09III did so. Obviously, the 09VI would be larger and more complex than the 09V, but Chinese R&D and manufacturing have improved substantially as well.
- For what it's worth, US intelligence has estimated that the 09VI would enter construction in the mid 2020s. A steel-cutting date in late 2023 would be in line with this assessment.
I see a lot of comparisons being made between a notional 09VI SSGN version and the Ohio-class SSGN. It is worth noting that the Ohio-class SSGNS were not actually purposely-built. They are the result of the USN choosing to reduce its SSBN fleet down to 14 boats after 18 have already been built, partly due to treaties with Russia. In fact, the four "extra" boats were initially slated to be retired prior to being reactivated for SSGN conversion. AFAIK, these Ohio SSGNs are the only SSGNs that are built from SSBN hulls. Even the Russians have seemingly delegated SSGN tasks to their Yasen SSNs so as to combine the SSN/SSGN roles into one hull.
If China really wanted, she could commission a "stretched" variant of the 09V or even convert the old 09IVs into SSGNs, but given the emphasis of the PLAN on anti-shipping rather than expeditionary land-attack duties, these are unlikely prospects. For the time being, given the doctrine of the PLAN and the naval force structure that supports it, 24 VLS cells on the 09IIIB and 09V would be more than sufficient.
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I'm pretty sure those were just 09V hulls which started to appear in late 2023 before a launch in early 2026. No 14m (or for the matter anything larger than ~12m) hull sections were ever observed at Huludao which makes it IMO unlikely for any 09VIs to be in late stages of assembly. That is of course assuming 09VI will not go down the old route of 09IV and 092 and share the same pressure hull diameter as the respective SSN of their generation.
Chinese doctrine is changing.
Previously, the 1IC and 2IC were highly contested.
And for land-attack at these distances, it is better to use land-based missiles or aircraft.
By 2030, I reckon China will likely be able to achieve air and maritime superiority at these distances.
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But in order to reach land targets beyond the 3IC, China won't have enough aircraft carriers to do this for at least 15 years.
But if China now has Type-095 nuclear submarines which are quieter than ocean background levels, then it is very feasible for Chinese submarines to reach the open waters of the Pacific Ocean and reach high-value targets on land that were previously "safe".
For example, if the US strikes Jiangnan Shipyard or the J-20 factory or missile production facilities, then China would retaliate against the Newport News Shipbuilding, the F-35 factory or Raytheon's missile factories.
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While I also think this is the likeliest scenario, I wouldn't exclude one where PLANs emphasis on anti-shipping capabilities as you said resulted in a similar route as the Soviet Navy fielding the Echo, Charlie and Oscar SSGNs for this specific reason.