Yes. And I am saying that it should not be treated as "a given".
It's not something to talk about as if a casual remark, but that a fleet expansion of that scale (even if it's keeping J-16s around and retiring J-10Cs early) is a huuuge deal.
Future PLAAF fleet procurement and composition
- Thread starter Totoro
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Yes. And I am saying that it should not be treated as "a given".
It's not something to talk about as if a casual remark, but that a fleet expansion of that scale (even if it's keeping J-16s around and retiring J-10Cs early) is a huuuge deal.
Personally, I see expansion (or a mix of expansion and partial mothballing the fleet 4.5th gens) is more likely as world tension is getting more critical the next 5 years, or even till unification is achieved.
I don't see why not. The major expansions in production capacity means some form of expansion in fleet size is inevitable just as a result of continual running of said production over time, even if they retire every last 4.5-gen. The only question is the scale and timing thereof. Unless you think they're planning on shutting down capacity in the near future? Which doesn't make any sense; they could've just retooled old lines instead of adding new ones if they didn't want to expand.
I suppose there is also the possibility of dedicating significant capacity to unmanned production, but that would seem premature at this stage.
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Not really -- increased production capacity may well relate to a desire for significant qualitative overmatch while retaining overall fleet size to be largely the same.
The idea of them increasing fighter fleet is not illogical, but it also isn't something that can be presumed, just because in terms of speculation we need to have some level of grounding.
For example, it's like being in 2012 where the PLA basically had 24 destroyers (many obsolescent) between its six major destroyer flotillas, and how we couldn't just presume that they would massively expand their future destroyer fleet in the future after the oldest of the 24 destroyers back then were retired and replaced.
We had to either have rumours (which didn't really tell us of the expansion in destroyer fleet size until midway through the decade) or until we see proof in the pudding itself (new ships being built at scale that could only mean a fleet expansion).
Same goes for the fighter situation -- at this point, the idea of expanding the fleet size is within reason, but treating it as a given (when alternative solutions exist, such as early mothballing of 4.5th gens exist), without rumours projecting their direction, is something that should be stated with substantial justification and "entertain this for purposes of discussion" imo
The way I see it, the current situation with AVIC is more analogous to the one with CSSC after they built out the new halls at Bohai. Unlike shipyard infrastructure for surface combatants, which can be and often is shared with civilian hulls, there's only one reason you need submarine halls. So that meant what we saw was a very clear signal of intent that lots of new submarines were coming over the next decade, even though the new subs themselves did not appear until years later. The fact that old submarines naturally need replacements did not detract from the conclusion that the undersea fleet was set for a major expansion.
Likewise, AVIC is not about to start cranking out civilian airliners from its new facilities. That's what COMAC is for.
The nuclear submarine/Bohai expansion is analogous, I agree -- but the Bohai expansion also did have some caveats (and still has some caveats) that remain unclear similar to the expansion of fighter production facilities.
For example, while we expect an increase in PRC nuclear submarine fleet size by virtue of the Bohai expansion, we do not know what that means for the size of their existing SSK fleet -- would it stay the same, or reduce slightly, or reduce significantly? That is especially the case as they still have modern SSK variants being produced with existing SSK lines either remaining in good shape or even being modernized.
Parallels to the 4.5th gen fleet and new 5th gen introduction are there (albeit imperfect).
The way I see it, an expansion of fighter fleet size is indeed a very reasonable thing to project.
But the prior discussion has been a little bit more specific than just "fighter fleet size may grow to an unknown degree" -- it is instead saying that based on projections of PRC 5th gen production from now to the early 2030s, they may well have their 4.5th gens to become the "oldest" fighters in service by around 2030, and if 5th gen production continues into the mid and late 2030s and if 6th gen production starts in early 2030s, then the question is what happens to the 700 or so 4.5th gens which will all have at another 10 or more years of airframe life on them?
So when we talk about "fighter fleet size expansion" it is specifically in relation to that population of 700 or so 4.5th gens. (J-10C and vanilla J-16) in the 2030 onwards environment.
I see where the idea of keeping onto the J-10s and J-16s come from. They are, respectively, probably the best single engine 4.5 gen fighter in the world and likely the outright best 4.5 gen fighter in the world. In any other country, these would be considered premium planes and even the US is trying to build new F-15EXes and these are effectively less advanced planes than J-16s.
However, it looks like China is a good position to really ramp up 5th gen fighter production, so why not take advantage of it? Right now they're replacing pre-4.5 gen fighters, but that's only going to last so long. And once it gets to the 4.5 gens, why stop? Sure, you'd lose a bit of capability this way, but the advantages of having a lot more 5th gen fighters is much greater. And it's not all that hard to hang onto a few 4.5 gen brigades if those capabilities are still valued.
At the end of the day, the PLA sees how the USAF and USN hold onto their huge legacy inventories and how these inventories have led to stagnation and rot. It's a lesson of what to avoid, and the PLA is in a good position to take a very different path. Right now, having more modern fighters is more useful than an outright expansion of the PLAAF so I this is the better approach to take.
However, it looks like China is a good position to really ramp up 5th gen fighter production, so why not take advantage of it? Right now they're replacing pre-4.5 gen fighters, but that's only going to last so long. And once it gets to the 4.5 gens, why stop? Sure, you'd lose a bit of capability this way, but the advantages of having a lot more 5th gen fighters is much greater. And it's not all that hard to hang onto a few 4.5 gen brigades if those capabilities are still valued.
At the end of the day, the PLA sees how the USAF and USN hold onto their huge legacy inventories and how these inventories have led to stagnation and rot. It's a lesson of what to avoid, and the PLA is in a good position to take a very different path. Right now, having more modern fighters is more useful than an outright expansion of the PLAAF so I this is the better approach to take.
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
I could see J-10C being phased out starting around the early 2030s, with J-16s staying in service until late 2030s. Smaller, less autonomous CCAs designed for operations over or near friendly airspace is likely to become a mature capability and available in sufficient numbers prior to larger, more autonomous CCAs designed to operate further away in contested airspace.
I now see the reason you laid out about retiring the J-16s. If indeed the PLA wanted to keep the manned aircraft fleet the same size, I do see that as a possibility. What to do with the J-16s? They have good engine, good radars, long combat radius. On the other hand, once they are mothballed as is, when the PLA need this asset, there will be no one left who know how to fly them. I suggest turning them into drones. strip out the pilot related stuff, add CPU etc. to ensure the configuration can autonomously process all the sensor inputs, control the plane and the weapons and communicate and network with other assets. It can then be mothballed. Some day in the future, AI will make drones more lethal and make them behave more like manned assets. As time goes on, upgrade the software/hardware for the control portion.
BTW, I meant to say PL-21 instead of YJ-21, which allows the J-16 to fire off shots at long range.
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I'm not familiar with the PLAAF's fleet composition, but shouldn't they retire all their 3rd and 4th-generation aircraft first, or have most of them already been retired?