2026 Israel-US vs. Iran conflict [Military updates/News Only]

[Friendly]

He explicitly said no ground troops, then left wiggle room. Does it mean he's going to do it? IMO it's a deliberate distraction.

It has to be said that until now, Trump seemed to have learned the lesson of the Global War on Terror, which is no land war in Asia. Why would he need ground troops if the US mainland is safe, and all the damage is to Israel & GCC?

It's to the benefit of the US if everyone, especially in Asia where all the big rivals are, is busy fighting wars and blowing up oil infrastructure. Ukraine and Russia are already doing it to each other. Now the alternative is also getting slowly blown up.

Some marines are not really that important in the grand scheme of things. Trump can do whatever and blame Israel for it, just like he did with the Pars oil field attack. The US knew exactly what Iran would do in retaliation. The whole thing is deliberate.

 

[bebops]

Marines could be there to do operations against Iran-aligned ships that pass through the straits. The so called 'shadow fleet.' Also, they can secure agianst Iranian attacks outside Iran. Just because Iran has not deployed troops overtly means little. If push comes to shove, it makes sense for Iran to fight in say, Iraq instead of just it's own territory.

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also said no ground troops, but he's erratic so we'll see.

He is trying to be ambiguous to confuse his opponents. This is his 4D chess. He is probably trying to seize the oil island off Iran.

 

[FriedButter]

It has to be said that until now, Trump seemed to have learned the lesson of the Global War on Terror, which is no land war in Asia. Why would he need ground troops if the US mainland is safe, and all the damage is to Israel & GCC?

1) Trump has a political deadline. It must end before summer (mid terms).
2) Trump boxed himself in by setting his condition as an unconditional surrender.
3) Energy prices cannot remain elevated as per the political deadline.
4) There is no off-ramp because settling for anything less would be a political, ideological, and imperial humiliation.
5) The AIPAC Israeli donors will turn him into a scapegoat if the objective isn’t achieved.

Iran knows all this. Therefore, they have no reason to settle to seek an off-ramp when they hold the economic cards.

As such, Trump must gamble on greater risks in hopes of securing an victory,

 

[cqxt11]

are people believing that a few thousand can reach an hold an island 30 km from the mainland without getting gibbeted by drones, not even considering counter-value escalations? or troops being dropped to do rambo stuff in the desert?

it is more likely that syrians invade lebanon or somehow go for the iranian border

 

[bebops]

I think the deadline is likely summer but it has to be before Fall election. Whatever he is doing right now is he wants to try every single tactics in the book to get his opponents to surrender.

 

[FriedButter]

I think the deadline is likely summer but it has to be before Fall election. Whatever he is doing right now is he wants to try every single tactics in the book to get his opponents to surrender.

I heard that a lot of voters make up their minds about who they vote for in mid or late summer.

 

[Friendly]

1) Trump has a political deadline. It must end before summer (mid terms).
2) Trump boxed himself in by setting his condition as an unconditional surrender.
3) Energy prices cannot remain elevated as per the political deadline.
4) There is no off-ramp because settling for anything less would be a political, ideological, and imperial humiliation.
5) The AIPAC Israeli donors will turn him into a scapegoat if the objective isn’t achieved.

Iran knows all this. Therefore, they have no reason to settle to seek an off-ramp when they hold the economic cards.

As such, Trump must gamble on greater risks in hopes of securing an victory,

Yes to all the above. But consider that Iran isn't really a problem for the US in the first place. We knew from the Omanis, then the British, that the Iranians, as always, went belly up in the negotiations when facing the US and gave up all the nuclear stuff. Why did Trump attack anyway?

The Epstein stuff plus the crazy Christian Zionists around him. Sure. But there is the issue of oil, and Trump is weirdly obsessed with it. He talked about Kharg all the way back in 1988.

The US learned that you could basically hold an oil-dependant government hostage if you control the sales, just like with

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. Venezuela was second. Iran is obviously third.

If you can't control it, blow it up. Either way the rivals are cut off.

 

[AlexYe]

There is no going back to the world of 2025 anymore.

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Iranian speaker has been saying that for a while, hopefully the future for iran is better post 2026 war

Successor has been appointed .

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034599334163984520

Pls stop going to homes.

US to unsanction Iranian oil floating on water, says Bessent​

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They really re desperate to keep the oil price down, it reach $110 for brent crude, , meanwhile Omani and other oil are past $140

This is actually kind of a big deal isn't it? You could fairly convincingly argue what's happening here with this deal is Iran has dealt enough pain to US that US is starting to pay Iran reparations.

From here it's not actually that big of a logical leap to ceasefire agreement for removing all sanctions on Iran.

I think more like they are desperate because of Oil situation, Russian oil that was on barges has almost reach $100 already

look at the imagery. It is not grainy or low SNR at all. It is in fact extremely clear, and showed a collision from an oblique angle rather than straight up and down. So it was not a luck based shot.

If it was complacency it would be a low contrast, low SNR image, with a vertical shot as the plane flew right above - which is kind of like what happened in Yugoslavia.

I think it may be a case of tracking and waiting for the plane to enter the envelope of a IR guided missile.

Could be this thing was used,

Or whatever this thing is since this one seems more 'hide-able'

The Yemenis already had given the F-35s a few scares, it was a matter of time before someone screwed up somewhere in a conflict of bigger intensity, specially as crews are pushed further back to avoid getting nailed on the ground, increasing missions length and fatigue. Meth can only carry you so far.


Even sanctions on Belarus are getting lifted

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034658204576014774

Fertilizers have prices have gone up 70% thats why

5th Missile wave launched by Iran on Israel in last hour.. crazy

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034754804371607804

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034757248187068574

What will they say now, they said the missiles have been getting lower n lower day by day, yesterday and today breaks the narrative.

He wants a blow by blow recreation of Ukraine War or what???

He copied special military operation already, why not more?

France is DEFINITELY out right..? right...? I wonder if Uk will flip

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034769438482808956

Ignore all the macho-bs stuff hegseth said, accordine to Caine.
They have begun using A10's and AH64's in iran, but a10 videos etc that have come out are from Iraq, fighting iraqi militia.
And he said fighting southern iran the strait area, do a10's have the range to lift from israel refuel and come back then?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2034606216186409182

 

[EmoBirb]

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Boxer is indeed departing San Diego, but not to the middle east, it's going to the pacific

However, in a statement from the U.S. Navy Third Fleet in San Diego to FOX 5/KUSI, military officials said the Boxer ARG and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are conducting “routine operations in the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of operations.”


“An integral part of U.S. Pacific Fleet, U.S. 3rd Fleet operates naval forces in the Indo-Pacific to conduct routine training that ensures the continued warfighting readiness of Navy and Marine forces operating in the area,” the statement said.

Quite frankly, especially with tweets and quick headlines, we should take 2 minutes to check the sources rather than filling several pages with wild speculation before checking.

 

[bebops]

Hi,​

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10 hours ago · With daily costs nearing 1 billion shekels, Israeli officials are informally using budget limits to gauge the war's likely duration, ...

US wants additional 200 billion fund for the war. That allows them to wage a war for 150-200 days. Once that is used up, the war will end. US cannot fight a 10 year war in Iran like it did for past wars.