2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[horse]

Curious gold has been dropping somewhat..

Could be anything. It will be volatile with this geopolitical backdrop.

One battle the next day or whatever can change everything and things go haywire again.

Gold went up a lot, and rich people always own some gold.

Since those rich people might have some losses, or some GCC government needs cash, since they got gold profits, sell some gold to cover expenses.

 

[GulfLander]

Hudson Inst having another Iran war reasoning using China

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032290566944571883

 

[Temstar]

It is a two front. The Americans got the Iranian front, then the Israelis got the other front against the hapless Arabs.

That is why I do not like how the Iranians are fighting this war. Iran should have hit Israel harder, 2x to 5x times as hard. They look like they are wimping out the Iranian leadership.

At the end of this war, which one day will come to an end, Israel will still be a mortal enemy of Iran who wants to destroy you.

So, it is only logically Iran would like to see a smaller and crippled Israel instead of a larger one, which Bibi is intent on doing.

Priority number #1 should have been to flatten Israel and all of Israel, make it impossible for Israel to attack anyone. Wiping out the US bases was a success, but if Israel is not weaken to the point where it no long feels embolden to threaten everybody, then Iran is the dummy again.

Iran must hit Israel at least 3x times or 5x times harder. People like China and Russia cannot trust Iran if it does not have the right stuff.

You just cannot trust someone incapable like that.

You're not wrong, but on the other hand Israel is also a harder target to hit, both due to better multi-layered AD as well as due to distance, Iran just straight up have a lot of ballistic missiles in their inventory that doesn't have the range to hit Israel. IRGC looks like they are trying to strike a balance. They certainly haven't forgotten to hit Israel though:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032256844991734042

The refinery at Haifa might have been hit with a strike in the last few hours.

 

[simonov]

Is Iran use Beidou for their Missile as for GPS replacements

and why both Israeli and USA not use jamming tactics like Russia jamming GPS for Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles

 

[another505]

Hudson Inst having another Iran war reasoning using China

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032290566944571883

They can't think in chinese perspective and geopolitics, all they can do is make assumptions base on projections of their own mentality.
Perhaps Kegseth is right in one thing, the american academia has their head stuck up in the butt after decades of dominance, that they have become detached from reality. (not that he is right about warrior ethos and shit when he barely served) Recently, my class had to do a presentation to our professor and she struggles to understand new concepts from different students. Everything she says and critique are derivative from the past 20 years.

 

[enroger]

You guys are talking as if China is not also following their national interests only. Every great power does the same . Haven’t you guys seen China condemn Irans attack on gulf/an Arab states at the UN? China has far more interests and stake in gulf states than in Iran. So China will still tilt more towards them than Iran(though they don’t have to make it too obvious ). In fact India, Russia etc etc all have more stakes in gulf Arab countries than in Iran. This again shows that Iran’s policies since the mullah seized power has been a failure to be honest. It’s why they are isolated apart from having militias groups in quasi semi failed states countries like Yemen/ Lebanon .

The gulf states by contrast have been very strategic in drawing in different powers economic/trade interests in their territory, reason they hold a lot of sway/influence globally . After this was Iran will emerge even more weaker than before and more isolated to be honest. I don’t Qatar who was one of the main conduit of by passing some sanctions in the black market towards Iran( the even fell out spectacularly with the Saudis and UAE due to their close ties with Iran) and maybe even Oman will be less tolerant of cooperating with Iran like before.
the biggest losers of this war will be Hezbollah first( Israel will focus more on them and their plight will be far worse and longer even after Iran war is over), Iran second (this will weaken the country economically and militarily and isolate them more ) , thirdly Gulf Arab states who have taken a hit on their reputation.
biggest winners is Israel firstly for all the obvious reasons , secondly Russia( the get to enjoy selling more of their oil at higher prices with some sanctions lifted (ironically benefitting from Irans isolation/sanctions), China also gets to benefit as more countries will double down on their long term vision of electrifying their economy which means China will sell even more renewables globally since thy et dominate this crucial field. Though short term, China is also worried about Irans action of closing the strait of Hormuz where a significant portion of Chinas oil also passes through . In fat the countries most affected by this action are Asian countries , not the US(who is the worlds largest oil producer ironically).
it’s ironic how things can have ripple effects globally

I don't know what you wrote has any relevance to my post since I was talking about how Jewish capitals tried and failed to infiltrate a certain country, but I'll bite.

The biggest losers are the gulf states no matter how the war goes. They banked on US to protect them and it simply didn't happened, their reputation of safe wealthy investment haven is gone forever and their oil export is shown to be subject to Iranian control.

The second biggest losers is either US/Israel or Iran, depending on which side fold first, and it is looking more and more likely Iran will prevail. If Iran come out of this alive then they not only achieved deterrence against US/Israel, they also demonstrated their control over the strait of Hormuz, which makes them the only viable guarantor of oil trade in the region, not the US. All this will make Iran an incredible powerful entity in the future global power structure, not to mention the economic benefit it will bring.

 

[FriedButter]

So another Fireworks Friday and Lower Oil TACO Sunday?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032328485922836870

 

[gaussgun]

Beijing rejects Sinopec's request to tap commercial reserve, sources say

China has rejected a request by refining major Sinopec to access 13 million metric tons (95 million barrels) of national commercial ‌reserves to offset an expected supply gap as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran threatens Middle East exports, two sources said this week.

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[Temstar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032304833513095550

American Shilao's thoughts on recent US war planning. Or as Otter would say "Yes, there appears to be an issue with both the current state of affairs and public morale".

 

[TPenglake]

You're not wrong, but on the other hand Israel is also a harder target to hit, both due to better multi-layered AD as well as due to distance, Iran just straight up have a lot of ballistic missiles in their inventory that doesn't have the range to hit Israel. IRGC looks like they are trying to strike a balance. They certainly haven't forgotten to hit Israel though:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2032256844991734042

The refinery at Haifa might have been hit with a strike in the last few hours.

I saw a vid explaining the multiple layers of early warning detection that, especially with the involvement of the US navy this time around, Iranian missiles have to pass through and then subsequently the amount of interceptors the US and its allies can launch before their missiles can land on Israel. So rather Iran sticks to the age old tactic of attacking the weakest part of the line like how during WW2 rather than fighting battle hardened Wehrmacht, it was easier for the Allies to attack weaker and less motivated Eastern European conscripts like Romanians or Hungarians to break the formation and ultimately outflank the Germans. Iran's been doing this from day one attacking the Gulf states economies and of course holding the broader global economy hostage.

Plus for now Hezbollah is keeping Israel plenty busy and especially in the future once Israel begins the ground invasion of Southern Lebanon.