2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]

[FriedButter]

I would never gambling in polymarket and etc.. against insider info, fake maps in ukraine fiasco, and also they could choose not to pay out. The gamification of gambling in NA is absolutely asinine and are a plague to society, it will become the next fentanyl crisis. But hey, whatever to keep the green line up.

There was a $54 million dollar bet on when Khamenei would no longer be the leader of Iran and his death would mean that he was no longer the leader of Iran. Kalshi promoted the bet but on the same day as the war started. They posted a notice to exclude Khamenei death as an invalid reason for him not being the leader.

Unsurprisingly, people are completely livid in raging anger.

Kalshi faced a customer revolt over how it handled a $54 million market about the fate of Iran’s leadership. “People are absolutely livid,” says Kalshi trader Nicholas Mahoney.

The market offered “yes” or “no” contracts on whether Khamanei would be “out” as the nation’s Supreme Leader

included a “death carve-out” for markets on when leaders will leave office. But Kalshi had only added a notice about the carveout to the webpage for the market after the attack on Iran had begun, which meant that some traders did not see it

A source at Kalshi told WIRED the company lost approximately $2.2 million on the incident.

“Sorry.” - BP Kalshi

“I'm sorry for the disappointment. We'll improve, thank you for bearing with us,” he wrote. (CEO Mansour)

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[klimsa]

Man they should have written it in English, half the people will see this and think the opposite or get used negatively by Zionist pr.

Meanwhile some crazy things from Hebrewtv:

1) Trump admin entertaining the idea of a long ground war, and talking with Saudis-kuwait-jordan and gulf states about a coalition.
2) The biggest they want are the Saudis, incase of ground war, they want to bring troops stuff etc via the suez canal to Saudis ports on the red-sea side.
3) IraqGov isnt gonna stop them so from Kuwait they will enter iraq into Iran.
4) They are prepared to offer saudis something 'big' for this

"Please please PLEASE try to take Iran by ground, no your desalination plants or your pipelines won't get bombed I promise!! Surely you have the men, the training, the supplies, the logistics to actually carry it out!!"

And then the mango woke up.

 

[another505]

,

There was a $54 million dollar bet on when Khamenei would no longer be the leader of Iran and his death would mean that he was no longer the leader of Iran. Kalshi promoted the bet but on the same day as the war started. They posted a notice to exclude Khamenei death as a valid reason for him not to longer being the leader.

Unsurprisingly, people are completely livid in raging anger.





“Sorry.” - BP

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Ya, that was the incident that I was saying about "not paying out" I forgot the specifics.
Only gamble with money that you already accepted as lost. Or even better, never gamble, these scums don't deserve your money.

 

[zyklon]

Is a crazy scenario that Netanyahu could use nuclear weapons against no only against Iran but also neighbor Muslims powers, because he definitely believe in collective punishment, so that is something to worry about.

But is also worrisome that in the Trump administration a lot the commanders and officers that are very radical almost Taliban type Evangelical Christian Zionists, who really believe about the end of the world, were promoted. How many on ICBMs and Nuclear Submarines. You can't see how desperate and fanatic Lindsay Graham sounds, I think is not because he is advancing any national security strategy, I think is because he really believe it, that by establish the greater Israel God will forget that he is gay, somehow and he will go to heaven in the Fire of the Apocalypse and a course all Jews, Muslims and other Christians will go to hell.

Everyone

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the US and Israel are running low on air defense interceptors. Otherwise, USFK's THAAD battery — or a significant portion thereof — wouldn's be

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to the CENTCOM AOR.

If Iranian MRBMs are hitting high-value Israeli targets — with precision and at scale — after US and Israeli interceptor magazines are effectively exhausted, the neurotic Zionist hardliners currently ruling Israel may (threaten to) nuke Iran in desperation.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Man they should have written it in English, half the people will see this and think the opposite or get used negatively by Zionist pr.

Meanwhile some crazy things from Hebrewtv:

1) Trump admin entertaining the idea of a long ground war, and talking with Saudis-kuwait-jordan and gulf states about a coalition.
2) The biggest they want are the Saudis, incase of ground war, they want to bring troops stuff etc via the suez canal to Saudis ports on the red-sea side.
3) IraqGov isnt gonna stop them so from Kuwait they will enter iraq into Iran.
4) They are prepared to offer saudis something 'big' for this

Entering from Iraq they will have to fight Shia Militias all over the place, they will likely have loses before even reaching Iran. Apart from missile and drone attacks.

I think Saudis may have read the writing in the wall of what is happening. I Think they will want to depart from the US . They saw all these expensive imported equipment being torn apart by a small military player. They have been importing expensive weapons from the US that they can't upgrade, they can't manufacture in the own country and is probably compromised by Israel like the pagers of Hezbollah. I think they will want to develop a large offensive arsenal to create deterrence and establish defense industrial partnership with Pakistan, China and Russia. Or maybe not.

 

[H2O]

Saudi troops? In a ground war?
View attachment 171331
Seriously?

Most likely US / Israeli troops wearing Saudi uniforms. They've done this wrt the Kurds against Syria.

 

[AlexYe]

Saudi troops? In a ground war?

Me thinks, They will work as cannon fodder like the other gulf ones.

Probably just making an informed guess. I would do the same thing since it would skyrocket the cost of recovery and incur further casualties on the invaders.

Probably but this guy has been saying some stuff that got proven later on, they talked about us f15 crash before anyone else too.

Entering from Iraq they will have to fight Shia Militias all over the place, they will likely have loses before even reaching Iran. Apart from missile and drone attacks.

They have been bombing the militias that are on the Iran border, but yeah they will have to go through them, or they could push iraqi's govs army to engage them and occupy their attention.

I think Saudis may have read the writing in the wall of what is happening

Hopefully thats the case, the recently announced $5 bn drone deal with China to make winglong in Saudia also indicate that.

 

[pevade]

Saudi troops? In a ground war?
View attachment 171331
Seriously?

Do they not realize that Iran is surrounded by mountains on all sides? Also if Ukraine are demolishing columns with FPVs what makes them so sure that they can do the same thing in the freaking mountains, where FPV's from the millions of hidden spots to strike their columns. Not to mention the issue of artillery etc....
Engaging in a ground war against Iran.... Well its practically suicide.
If Trump really commits to the ground war. The casualties will skyrocket, then there will be no hiding it.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Man they should have written it in English, half the people will see this and think the opposite or get used negatively by Zionist pr.

Meanwhile some crazy things from Hebrewtv:

1) Trump admin entertaining the idea of a long ground war, and talking with Saudis-kuwait-jordan and gulf states about a coalition.
2) The biggest they want are the Saudis, incase of ground war, they want to bring troops stuff etc via the suez canal to Saudis ports on the red-sea side.
3) IraqGov isnt gonna stop them so from Kuwait they will enter iraq into Iran.
4) They are prepared to offer saudis something 'big' for this

The gulf monarchies better be careful. The risk of failure isn't just going home in this case.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Do they not realize that Iran is surrounded by mountains on all sides? Also if Ukraine are demolishing columns with FPVs what makes them so sure that they can do the same thing in the freaking mountains, where FPV's from the millions of hidden spots to strike their columns. Not to mention the issue of artillery etc....
Engaging in a ground war against Iran.... Well its practically suicide.
If Trump really commits to the ground war. The casualties will skyrocket, then there will be no hiding it.

To be fair, effective proloferation of FPVs beyond ukrainian war doesn't prove nowhere as simple as it appears. And even in Ukraine itself, sides have their respective areas of excellence and struggle to catch up in ones of their opponent.

Finally, i really wonder if tough terrain is an advantage for drones. Datalink LOS is a major limiting factor for them.

If there are iranian strengths to really count on, it's their successful prewar NLOS developments.