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Hitomi

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't disagree with a structural analysis showing China+ASEAN vs US effects. But I believe your analysis is "straight-line" presuming China continues on its current path. I believe China will use this crisis as an opportunity to reorder ASEAN's relationships with the US by instituting a petroleum sharing arrangement for East Asia. Augmented by Russia's petroleum and China's "Green" technology, the urgency demanded by the crisis would be a win-win for China+ASEAN (CPTPP and RCEP) to turn away from US hegemony and towards a climate-friendly future.

This might be an occasion where crisis means danger plus opportunity.
Indeed, China can promote their new fuel conversion technology such as Ammonia while Russia, Turkmenistan (through China), Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia provides the immediate backstop from their stocks. Not to mention all the drilling in the SCS. Might even bring the Philippines closer if this drags on long enough.
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member
I like the guy's videos but I think he was a CIA agent

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Nah, I've watched quite a few of his videos, I disagree with a lot of what he says but he doesn't fit the archetype of a spy at all. He fits instead the archetype of an idealistic Chinese liberal who spent many adult years living in the west and became disillusioned, much like Ai Weiwei.

In his other videos, he states many times that Putin is a strategic mastermind, that the West is corrupt and collapsing, that the US is going to invade Iran and lose and that civil war is coming. Like many Chinese immigrants, the longer they spend in the West the more they realize that they don't really fit in. Just last year after his channel blew up he had an incident in Canada where he spanked one of his kids in a park, was citizen arrested by bystanders and park staff, then was questioned by the police. He felt humiliated, but after he posted the story instead of sympathy he caught a lot of flak from his viewers.
 

Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
On his recent podcast, he said Iran will be in ruins and US will be out of Mideast. That leaves Israel the only regional power in Mideast.

I am thinking the world will look like this in the future.

US will rule the Western Hemisphere, Europe will rule Africa, Israel rule Mideast, while China and India rule Asia.
Europe will not rule Africa. If they tried it won't go as planned. The world will be decentralized, not under blocs.
 

PeregrineFalcon

New Member
Registered Member
One thing CPC must do is to mercilessly crush the spread of evangelicalism in China. It’s an extremist ideology. Catholic and Orthodox Christians are fine. Protestants especially Evangelicals are highly pro-Israel. It’s a dangerous trend to allow this radical ideology to spread within China. Israel will exploit this population to their advantage. They will be more loyal to Israel than to China. You see this in the US especially under Bush and Trump.
Nip this in the bud before it’s too late.
Totally agree with this. Doesn't seem as if China is doing enough. Lately they seem to be targeting the Buddhist clergy far more than the underground churches. They should look closely at South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia where there are many of this evangelicals. When their numbers are large enough they always meddle and change society and government.
 

Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
Totally agree with this. Doesn't seem as if China is doing enough. Lately they seem to be targeting the Buddhist clergy far more than the underground churches. They should look closely at South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia where there are many of this evangelicals. When their numbers are large enough they always meddle and change society and government.
Abrahamic faiths are like that in general, they tend to be political ideologies wrapped under the guise of religion. They present themselves as harmless religions and lull you into a false sense of security then warp the brains of its adherents. I'm far from a Marxist but he was correct when he said religion is opium for the masses.
 

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
Might be worth considering to stock up on food staples like rice, flour, etc.

Because fertilizer prices are going to skyrocket. Could save some money or whatever.


It was what that financial guy Louis Vincent Gave said a few months ago.

Everyone knew that the Americans wanted to cut rates, and will cut rates.

The only problem would be in the case when they were faced with a policy constraint that would not allow them to cut rates, is what Mr. Gave said.

To clarify, in a case of stagflation, the Fed may not be able to cut rates.

Cutting rates would boost the economy.

That does not seem possible now.

That spike in oil prices, will raise the cost of energy, the cost of food, the cost of insurance due to this volatile, and expectations of inflation will fuel inflation. This means everything is going up in price. Once it goes up, due to price stickiness, it stays there at that higher price.

With higher prices for the basic stuff people, there is less money around. Less disposable income means the economy starts to tank. While inflation remains stubbornly high.

This stagflation is like the worst possible outcome, that that is the outcome that should happen now.

All because of this Iran war.

The American economy was not that strong lately. Now it is coming down with a case of a severe flu. And who knows how long that will last.

That is why I do not understand this war. Not only the US lost all their bases in the Middle East, wars usually are good for the economy but not this one due to the military situation pertaining to the Arabian Sea and the oil that needs to transit there, which could make a mild case of stagflation into a unrelenting case of stagflation and recession. It is beyond stupid. Yet here we are.

No wonder the Chinese lowered their growth rate targets to 4.5% as much of the world is going to go into recession this coming year if this war does not end soon and oil prices retreat back to $50 bucks a barrel.
 

sndef888

Captain
Registered Member
America has no good options here. They failed to collapse the Iranian government on the initial strike so they're left with either escalating (and likely losing midterms due to oil prices) or pulling out (and admitting defeat)

Everybody is gonna get hit economically but China will come out on top because they're dominating renewables
 
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