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FriedButter

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Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs, rebuking president’s signature economic policy​

The Supreme Court on Friday struck down a huge chunk of President Donald Trump’s far-reaching tariff agenda, delivering a major rebuke of the president’s key economic policy.

The law that undergirds those import duties “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” the majority ruled six to three in the long-awaited decision.

The ruling is a massive loss for Trump, who has made tariffs — and his asserted power to impose them on any country at any time, without congressional input — a central feature of his second presidential term.

Trump’s legal stance “would represent a transformative expansion of the President’s authority over tariff policy,” the majority concluded. And they highlighted that Trump imposed the tariffs without Congress, which has the power to tax under the Constitution.

Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the opinion of the court. Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Brett Kavanaugh dissented.

The decision noted that before Trump, no president had ever used the statute in question “to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope.”

To justify the “extraordinary” tariff powers, Trump must “point to clear congressional authorization,” the court wrote. “He cannot.”

The ruling was silent on whether tariffs that have been paid under the higher rates will need to be refunded. That sum could total $175 billion, according to a new estimate from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model.

Kavanaugh wrote in his dissent that the refund process “is likely to be a ‘mess,’” after predicting that the short-term impact of the court’s tariff ruling “could be substantial.”

Betting it all on IEEPA

Since retaking the White House, Trump has rapidly reshaped America’s longstanding trade relationships by imposing a staggering array of import duties that have touched nearly every country on earth.

Many of those tariffs were invoked using a novel reading of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. They include Trump’s near-global “reciprocal” tariffs, and separate duties related to the alleged trafficking of deadly drugs into the U.S.

IEEPA does not explicitly mention tariffs, as the Supreme Court noted Friday. Instead, it allows the president to “regulate … importation” of foreign property transactions after declaring a national emergency in order to deal with certain “unusual and extraordinary” threats.

The Trump administration has argued that language empowers the president to impose tariffs on foreign goods.

Critics charged that the law does not permit the president to unilaterally impose levies of any size on any country at any time. A federal trade court and a federal appeals court both found Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal before the Supreme Court took up the case.

The majority of U.S. tariff revenue generated last year came from the IEEPA duties.

Trump critics — and businesses — rejoice

Reaction to the ruling quickly poured in, with the loudest voices cheering the demise of the chaotic policy that has been blamed for raising prices and straining longstanding global alliances.

“This ruling is a victory for every American family paying higher prices because of Trump’s tariff taxes,” Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the House Budget Committee’s top-ranking Democrat, said in a statement. “The Supreme Court rejected Trump’s attempt to impose what amounted to a national sales tax on hardworking Americans.”

House Ways and Means Committee ranking member Richard Neal, D-Mass., in a statement called the decision “a victory for the American people, the rule of law, and our standing in the global economy.”

Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a U.S. sneaker industry group, said Friday’s ruling “marks an important step toward creating a more predictable and competitive environment for American businesses and consumers.”

“This ruling provides relief at a time when cost pressures have been significant,” Matt Priest, president and CEO of the footwear group, said in a statement.

The Distilled Spirits Council, an advocacy group for U.S. liquor makers, responded to the ruling by urging the Trump administration to “secure a permanent return to zero-for-zero tariffs” with top trade partners.

Doing so “would provide much needed certainty for American spirits exporters while helping ease financial pressures on bars, restaurants and retailers at a time when affordability remains a major concern for consumers,” said the council’s president and CEO, Chris Swonger, in a statement.

Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister for trade with the U.S., said in an X post that the decision “reinforces Canada’s position that the IEEPA tariffs imposed by the United States are unjustified.”


Tariff tumult

Trump last April unveiled his sweeping reciprocal tariff plans at a much-ballyhooed White House event marking what he had dubbed America’s “liberation day.”

That announcement stoked a sudden market panic, and the tariffs were quickly put on pause. They have since been repeatedly tweaked, delayed and reimposed, adding confusion and further complexity to the administration’s tangled web of trade policies.

Other IEEPA-based tariffs include a set aimed at Mexico, Canada and China related to allegations that those countries have allowed the deadly drug fentanyl to flow into the U.S.

Trump, a fierce critic of America’s recent history of making free trade deals, has repeatedly praised tariffs as both a bountiful source of federal revenue and a key tool in negotiations with foreign partners and adversaries alike.

He has claimed foreign countries bear the cost of his tariffs, and he has downplayed concerns that the taxes lead to higher prices for Americans. His administration, however, has admitted that the duties are paid by U.S. importers.

Trump has claimed the tariff revenue has been so large that the duties may be able to replace the income tax. He has also floated the idea of sending Americans $2,000 tariff dividend checks.

“We have taken in, and will soon be receiving, more than 600 Billion Dollars in Tariffs,” he wrote in a recent Truth Social post.

Other estimates are significantly lower: The Bipartisan Policy Center, for instance, tallied U.S. gross tariff revenue in 2025 at about $289 billion. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it had collected roughly $200 billion between Jan. 20 and Dec. 15.

For the IEEPA-specific tariffs, the administration said it has collected about $129 billion in revenue as of Dec. 10.

Ahead of the ruling, Trump and his administration talked up the consequences of the high court striking down the tariffs.

“If the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!” Trump wrote on Jan. 12.

U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have stated they believed the Supreme Court would not undo the president’s “signature” economic policy.

Businesses will get refunds and consumers will get nothing. Actually, they will get something. Permanent higher prices.

edit: and the likelihood that Trump is going to triple down on Iran is probably guaranteed. Trade policy is dead. Domestic policy is failing. The 1st year of Trump 2.0 has been completely wasted lmao.

The April and November meeting for China is going to be fun to watch.
 
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FriedButter

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Supreme Court Trump tariffs ruling could put U.S. on hook for $175 billion in refunds, estimate says​

The U.S. government could owe more than $175 billion in refunds to importers after the Supreme Court ruled Friday in a 6-3 decision that tariffs unilaterally imposed by President Donald Trump are illegal, a new estimate says.

The potential refunds to a broad range of companies would be for tariffs already collected by the government since Trump slapped on the duties without authorization from Congress.

The $175 billion refund estimate from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model was produced at the request of the Reuters news wire service. The model is a non-partisan fiscal research group at the University of Pennsylvania.

Multiple importers already have pending lawsuits seeking refunds of their tariffs, citing lower-court rulings that found Trump’s tariffs are not legal.
The Supreme Court ruling on Friday did not say that the federal government could keep the money it has already collected from those tariffs but didn’t explicitly address refunds.

The president had invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs. He was the first president to ever use IEEPA for that purpose.

Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, one of three conservative members of the high court to dissent from Friday’s ruling, warned about the potential logistical difficulty of having to refund tariffs already collected.

“In the meantime, however, the interim effects of the Court’s decision could be substantial,” Kavanaugh wrote in his dissent.

“The United States may be required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers or others,” he wrote.

“As was acknowledged at oral argument, the refund process is likely to be a ‘mess,’ ” Kavanaugh wrote.

“In addition, according to the Government, the IEEPA tariffs have helped facilitate trade deals worth trillions of dollars — including with foreign nations from China to the United Kingdom to Japan, and more,” he wrote.

“The Court’s decision could generate uncertainty regarding those trade arrangements.”

Brian LeBlanc, senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group, in a LinkedIn post on Friday said “we estimate” that the IEEPA-related tariffs that have been ruled illegal constitute “roughly 60% of the tariffs issued to date.”

“That’s a big deal. Until President Trump replaces those tariffs with alternative authorities, the tariff rate just dropped from around 9.5% to around 5%,” LeBlanc wrote. “Refunds are going to be tricky, and we expect the Trump administration to replace most (but not all) of this lost tariff revenue.”

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection in December said the amount of tariffs collected that would be at risk of having to be refunded was $133.5 billion.

That tally would have risen since then because of the ongoing collection of duties.

The amount could have been far higher but Trump has been silently giving big exemptions for certain goods and commodities since the start. Including exemptions to specific Trump aligned companies, tech companies, and mega corporations.
 

bsdnf

Senior Member
Registered Member
Lutnick's family company acquired the tariff rebate rights of numerous businesses.

This is essentially a "let the bullets fly" scenario: the wealthy donate first, then the common people. Afterwards, the wealthy are returned in full, the common people's money is split 30/70, the government and the wealthy take their cut.

Businesses gain a legitimate reason to raise prices, the tariff rebates are split with the Trump’s cult, consumers pay the bill.

Oh, and those countries that signed trade agreements that included mandatory investment, you guys think you can get away with it?
 
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Some1Guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
and the likelihood that Trump is going to triple down on Iran is probably guaranteed.
That's gonna cost a lot of money for the US government and put the US into even more debt causing even more domestic problems as well as even more dedollarization.

I don't think putting anti-west anti-imperialist ideology down in Iran is possible for the US to do especially if they invade Iran, even if they take the current regime down that won't cause people in Iran to suddenly fall in love with the US, even with the protests there where counter protests in support of the current government.

Basically gonna cost a lot of money and gonna make the Iranian people oppose Israel and the US even more, the only thing it will do is militarily weaken Iran which is gonna make Israel's job of building greater Israel a lot easier.

Overall i don't know how much Trump want's to commit to a full war since it will make him look really bad (of course with the release of the Epstein files, it already looks bad for him without starting a war.) which will negatively effect the midterms. It seems more likely that he'll attempt a quick win like in Venezuela but then again that doesn't explain all the military asset build up so i don't know.
 

Sardaukar20

Major
Registered Member
India joins Pax Silica. It's only open for the nations of the free world. Since India calls itself the third AI Supapowar, this is a super tag team. India + US are gonna become unstoppable! China is so doomed! Jai Hind!

While India revels with the US in Pax Silica. Moscow celebrates Chinese New Year. Russia and China have a different kind of friendship.
 

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
Trump is freaking the fuck out lol

TRUMP: 10% GLOBAL TARIFF TO BE IMPOSED ON TOP OF OTHER TARIFFS
TRUMP: I AM ALLOWED TO CUT OFF ALL TRADE WITH A COUNTRY
TRUMP: I AM ALLOWED TO IMPOSE AN EMBARGO
TRUMP: I WILL GO IN A STRONGER DIRECTION NOW
TRUMP: 'NOW I'LL GO THE WAY I COULD HAVE GONE ORIGINALLY'
TRUMP: SUPREME COURT MADE MY ABILITY TO IMPOSE TARIFFS MORE POWERFUL
TRUMP: I DON'T NEED TO ASK CONGRESS FOR TARIFFS
TRUMP: FOREIGN INTERESTS HAVE UNDUE INFLUENCE OVER THE SUPREME COURT
 
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