J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31

[tamsen_ikard]

In the recent stream, the trio briefly touched on the subject of UAE and J-35AE, and they sounded rather uncertain this time. The TLDR of the TLDR is just politics and "momentum".

No Gulf Arab will ever buy Chinese fighters, let alone stealth fighters. US would literally Bomb them to bits before they let that happen. Especially under Trump, who is unhinged about allies being disloyal.

The only ones who can buy J-35 will be Pakistan. Iran could buy it if China sells it to them, but China will likely not sell J-35 to Iran.

Actually the best candidate for buying J-35 is Turkey. They have the power to withstand the pressure, like they did for S-400. But I don't think China will sell their weapons to Turkey due to Turkish support for Uyghurs.

My prediction is that China will not sell J-35 to anyone except Pakistan for the next 10-15 years. If the global geopolitics changes significantly in the direction of China and more US allies fall into the China camp, then it might happen. But otherwize J-35 will remain unexported to others.

 

[wifi999]

No Gulf Arab will ever buy Chinese fighters, let alone stealth fighters. US would literally Bomb them to bits before they let that happen. Especially under Trump, who is unhinged about allies being disloyal.

The only ones who can buy J-35 will be Pakistan. Iran could buy it if China sells it to them, but China will likely not sell J-35 to Iran.

Actually the best candidate for buying J-35 is Turkey. They have the power to withstand the pressure, like they did for S-400. But I don't think China will sell their weapons to Turkey due to Turkish support for Uyghurs.

My prediction is that China will not sell J-35 to anyone except Pakistan for the next 10-15 years. If the global geopolitics changes significantly in the direction of China and more US allies fall into the China camp, then it might happen. But otherwize J-35 will remain unexported to others.

Turkey may regain F-35s which they have already been purchased. I think the possibility that they will buy J-35s is much lower than the UAE.

 

[Pinko]

No Gulf Arab will ever buy Chinese fighters, let alone stealth fighters. US would literally Bomb them to bits before they let that happen. Especially under Trump, who is unhinged about allies being disloyal.

The only ones who can buy J-35 will be Pakistan. Iran could buy it if China sells it to them, but China will likely not sell J-35 to Iran.

Actually the best candidate for buying J-35 is Turkey. They have the power to withstand the pressure, like they did for S-400. But I don't think China will sell their weapons to Turkey due to Turkish support for Uyghurs.

My prediction is that China will not sell J-35 to anyone except Pakistan for the next 10-15 years. If the global geopolitics changes significantly in the direction of China and more US allies fall into the China camp, then it might happen. But otherwize J-35 will remain unexported to others.

There're always more than 1 way to Rome. Or never say never, Saudi can literally buy J35 via Pakistan, who can deploy the J35 back to Saudi by recently signed mutual defense treaty. It's almost certain the fund for a hefty number of 40 J35s will come from Gulf Arab. Ironically, while you see the impossiblilty of gulf Arab to buy J35, yet find it possible for a Nato number of turkey to buy it.

 

[Phead128]

In the recent stream, the trio briefly touched on the subject of UAE and J-35AE, and they sounded rather uncertain this time. The TLDR of the TLDR is just politics and "momentum".

Probably UAE is using J-35AE as negotiation leverage for the F-35 deal and getting US to drop it's demand to remove all Huawei 5G presence from its' country.

China can't protect UAE and UAE hosts like 3 US military bases, and Trump isn't the one to offend with disloyalty. This is just a case of one country playing two superpowers off each other for negotiation leverage.

 

[AndrewS]

No Gulf Arab will ever buy Chinese fighters, let alone stealth fighters. US would literally Bomb them to bits before they let that happen. Especially under Trump, who is unhinged about allies being disloyal.

The only ones who can buy J-35 will be Pakistan. Iran could buy it if China sells it to them, but China will likely not sell J-35 to Iran.

Actually the best candidate for buying J-35 is Turkey. They have the power to withstand the pressure, like they did for S-400. But I don't think China will sell their weapons to Turkey due to Turkish support for Uyghurs.

My prediction is that China will not sell J-35 to anyone except Pakistan for the next 10-15 years. If the global geopolitics changes significantly in the direction of China and more US allies fall into the China camp, then it might happen. But otherwize J-35 will remain unexported to others.

I wouldn't say ever.

Look at the military balance after 2035.

We're potentially looking at the Chinese Navy being "comparable" to the US Navy eg. 9+ aircraft carriers
And the Chinese Air Force likely having more combat power.

If the US threatens to bomb a Gulf Arab state, China should have the military capability to intervene.
The Arabian Gulf can be covered by ASBMs from mainland China.
I also imagine that Afghanistan and Iran would turn a blind eye to the J-36 transiting to the Arabian Gulf.

Alternatively, China could provide an emergency "supply" of weapons and advisors to defend against a US attack.

The US attacking Saudi or UAE would end up as a strategic disaster for the US.

 

[kwaigonegin]

I wouldn't say ever.

Look at the military balance after 2035.

We're potentially looking at the Chinese Navy being "comparable" to the US Navy eg. 9+ aircraft carriers
And the Chinese Air Force likely having more combat power.

If the US threatens to bomb a Gulf Arab state, China should have the military capability to intervene.
The Arabian Gulf can be covered by ASBMs from mainland China.
I also imagine that Afghanistan and Iran would turn a blind eye to the J-36 transiting to the Arabian Gulf.

Alternatively, China could provide an emergency "supply" of weapons and advisors to defend against a US attack.

The US attacking Saudi or UAE would end up as a strategic disaster for the US.

I just don't see China going into a hot war with the US over some country in the ME. And the severe lack of overseas bases would significantly reduce their effectiveness of the deployed forces.

 

[plawolf]

Probably UAE is using J-35AE as negotiation leverage for the F-35 deal and getting US to drop it's demand to remove all Huawei 5G presence from its' country.

China can't protect UAE and UAE hosts like 3 US military bases, and Trump isn't the one to offend with disloyalty. This is just a case of one country playing two superpowers off each other for negotiation leverage.

There will be broader political and diplomatic considerations, as big ticket arms sales are inevitably highly politically signalling.

While China had been careful to foster good relationships with all ME nations and even leveraged that to build bridges between Saudi Arabia and Iran, its powers of reconciliation are not infinite.

China doesn’t want to pick a side, but if forced to, its core team members are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. That means it needs to be more mindful of Saudi feelings about arms sales to the UAE when they are all but openly feuding with Saudi Arabia in Yemen right now.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I don’t see why the U.S. would want to block J-35 sale to UAE since it gives them the best opportunity to evaluate one first hand. Then again with someone as insecure as DJT in charge I can see them getting mad that China beat them to the punch with a twin-engined F-35…

 

[_killuminati_]

Selling to any Arab country for the foreseeable future is just like handing a few units over to the Americans for evaluation, imo. Except Egypt.

Brazil may be an option. They're currently phasing out their current fleet of F-5's and AMX, and have just a couple dozen Gripens in the pipeline.

 

[TheWanderWit]

Selling to any Arab country for the foreseeable future is just like handing a few units over to the Americans for evaluation, imo. Except Egypt.

Brazil may be an option. They're currently phasing out their current fleet of F-5's and AMX, and have just a couple dozen Gripens in the pipeline.

Brazil doesn't have a need for such an aircraft though. They don't need stealth fighters. Most Latin American militaries aren't of high "quality", and Brazil already has the the best military in Latin America qualitatively speaking by far. Even some J-10CEs would comfortably be a more advanced and powerful aircraft than anything any other Latin American AF possesses.