Renminbi (RMB)/Yuan Appreciation & Internationalization

[Maikeru]

The problem is China will never open up her capital markets (and for a good reason) and alow her curency to be freely traded, so the RMB will never be a major world reserve currency like the dollar or even the Euro/pound. I don't think Chinese leaders want that either. They just want or need to keep enough presence for RMB to negate any US nuclear option sanction moves against China like cutting china off swift/dollar . So China needs some.sort of alternative and option. However that doesn't means opening up her capital markets , and even more so to have a resevre cureency it has to be extremely liquid and very, very easy to convert into and out of it, something that won't be possible with the RMB for obvious reasons..So people should stop this thing of BRICS or whoever replacing the dollar . Won't happen for obvious reasons.

Gold, with or without gold-backed stablecoin.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The problem is China will never open up her capital markets (and for a good reason) and alow her curency to be freely traded, so the RMB will never be a major world reserve currency like the dollar or even the Euro/pound. I don't think Chinese leaders want that either. They just want or need to keep enough presence for RMB to negate any US nuclear option sanction moves against China like cutting china off swift/dollar . So China needs some.sort of alternative and option. However that doesn't means opening up her capital markets , and even more so to have a resevre cureency it has to be extremely liquid and very, very easy to convert into and out of it, something that won't be possible with the RMB for obvious reasons..So people should stop this thing of BRICS or whoever replacing the dollar . Won't happen for obvious reasons.

You're repeating these moneybrained platitudes like they mean anything. It doesn't matter that China's capital account is closed because people holding RMB won't be a matter of choice, but necessity. We're beginning to see China using its monopsony power to compel payment in RMB. As China's position in supply chains becomes more indispensable, it will coerce more transactions in RMB whether anyone likes it or not. The recent rare earth licensing saga was just the tip of the iceberg; there will come a day when the gloves come off.

Don't want to hold RMB? Enjoy the inflation shocks and shortages in your country as your citizens kill each other in bread lines.

 

[tphuang]

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More and more Western news outlet are reporting on the restructuring of debt to RMB as part of China's push to side track USD in its global dealings.

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Also looks at CIPS volume. We were up to 689B per day in September. The big jump was from 2023 to 2024 (123 to 175T)

 

[Sinnavuuty]

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More and more Western news outlet are reporting on the restructuring of debt to RMB as part of China's push to side track USD in its global dealings.

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Also looks at CIPS volume. We were up to 689B per day in September. The big jump was from 2023 to 2024 (123 to 175T)
View attachment 163828

This is very significant. A major reason why countries that don't want to get rid of the dollar in trade relations is that part or all of their respective debts are in dollars, which inhibits these countries from receiving currencies other than the dollar. In itself, it's a system that has allowed countries to become slaves to the dollar.

To reverse this, China is literally providing a solution: convert your debts to RMB and free yourself from dollar enslavement. Now you can accept trading in any existing currency, including the dollar itself, but without being forced to choose that option because of the perpetuation of your dollar-backed debt.

 

[qrex]

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More and more Western news outlet are reporting on the restructuring of debt to RMB as part of China's push to side track USD in its global dealings.

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Also looks at CIPS volume. We were up to 689B per day in September. The big jump was from 2023 to 2024 (123 to 175T)
View attachment 163828

I remember you saying it was around 650B-700B a day for 2024, that seems roughly stagnant for 2025 then? Also that graph is weird the 764B in March is lower then the 678B in Aug?

 

[tphuang]

I remember you saying it was around 650B-700B a day for 2024, that seems roughly stagnant for 2025 then? Also that graph is weird the 764B in March is lower then the 678B in Aug?

depends on the day. Keep in mind that it will be higher in March, because there is less traffic in Jan/Feb due to CNY.

For example, October is lower per day at just 552B per day because we had the week long October 1st golden week.

But, if you can average 650B for the full year, that works out to well over 200T for the full year.

But yes, the growth from 2024 to 2025 isn't as large as from 2023 to 2024.

 

[qrex]

Yeah based of the 175T figure for 2024 its around 479.45B a day so just increasing to 600 range would still be a significant increase (slower rate then 2023-2024 tho). Also was that 682b figure on your image from last year instead of this year? The IMG you posted shows 682B for Oct but the live website does show 552B

 

[tphuang]

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Cambodia is set to become one of the first countries to store gold in China or SGEI. Will put some of its reserves in SGE vault in Shenzhen. Huge move here as China is seeking to do these deals with more countries.

 

[Wrought]

RMB has been added to the list of currency options for global airlines.

The

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(IATA) will add the yuan to the settlement currencies available to airlines and aviation suppliers through the industry association’s clearing house, a move bolstering China’s efforts to promote the internationalisation of its currency. Yuan settlements will be available from next month following the completion of a trial period, the association said in a statement issued on Wednesday, with domestic carriers China Southern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines as the first to test the system this month.

IATA’s clearing house platform already offers users seven currencies for payments: US dollars, euros, British pounds, Swiss francs, Singapore dollars, Australian dollars and yen. It provides settlement services to 581 airlines, including 33 Chinese and foreign airlines operating in China, and processed US$63.8 billion in transactions last year.

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[Wrought]

Apparently the IMF and World Bank came in with an assist on the Kenyan loan conversions from USD to RMB.

President William Ruto's economic adviser, David Ndii, revealed that multilateral lenders were worried that Nairobi was using their dollar loans to pay China rather than funding the nation's infrastructure and budget. Kenya completed converting three dollar-denominated loans from China into yuan last month. According to the Treasury, this would save the nation almost $215 million (KSh 27.8 billion) annually in interest payments. The swap enables the three China Exim Bank loans' variable, dollar-based interest rates to drop to their lower, yuan-based rates. According to the Treasury, interest on the US dollar was above 6%, while interest on the yuan facility was 3%. However, Ndii has revealed a covert force behind the swap.

"The Western lenders questioned why they ought to help us while other lenders were taking out the money. For this reason, they exert pressure on nations to restructure their debts so that the funds they invest remain in the nation rather than being used to pay off other lenders," Ndii explained, as reported by Business Daily.

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