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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Eh, still think it's just a negotiation tactic. Both sides are posturing for better position to force a compromise, probably because the talks are not going well behind the scenes due to neither side wanting to give ground, so they're back to posturing.

What's important is that this is between the US and China. It doesn't make sense for China to declare a trade war on the world over rare earths. China cannot win that kind of war.
You must have missed my earlier post:

The Chinese leadership has to assume the West has the capability to build up their rare earth supply chain (not saying it will), thus they know the rare earth card has a shelf life. Playing this card means Chinese leadership considers there is considerable risk of the West starting a war against China in the next few years and want to discourage that for as long as possible, while China build up her arsenal and be ready when the time comes.1.jpeg
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Software can be easily copied and pirated. Trump is an idiot.

It took US corporations like Microsoft almost two decades convincing the Chinese government to enforce software licenses. And he just blew it all.
You don't even need to pirate it, the hardest part about software isn't creating it, its getting people to use yours.
Trump forcing people to use Chinese software makes him either a Chinese agent or a masochist, lol
 

tamsen_ikard

Senior Member
Registered Member
You don't even need to pirate it, the hardest part about software isn't creating it, its getting people to use yours.
Trump forcing people to use Chinese software makes him either a Chinese agent or a masochist, lol
There is absolutely nothing the west can do now that China will fear. They passed the hardle that was the trade war starting in 2018. Those were the dark times. China went through it and made itself resilient. Now they are ready to hit back hard.

US has two options, surrender and humiliate itself. Or double down and get destroyed in the process.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member

Professor Wolff and Professor Diesen, renowned economist and probably the internet best political host for rather low key yet penetrating discussion, have a 1 hour talk. It is long so you do not have to watch it.

I watched the whole thing, and enjoyed it. Professor Wolff likes to talk about the past, then bring to the present, and does that again, highlighting what was the Marshall Plan, and making a parallel to the bizarre Trump deal with von der Layen of today. How could these European politicians justify that to its own people? Prof Wolff said to Prof Diesen, who did not offer up an answer. Heh.

Actually did not remember much about this video, but since the mod want some commentary, I remember the last part, but then remember the above.

The last part, Prof Diesen said that Europe was too used to living in Uncle Sam's basement, and cannot let go, that was the message. That characterization made Prof Wolff laugh. But, there was an important point there.

Prof Wolff then recounted a conversation he had with a high level Chinese economist, who basically was talking about the same set up. That the United States provided this umbrella for growth, for Europe after the war, and later other countries, with China probably the very last one. He mentioned the dialectic, of how to navigate in it, and calibrate your moves, the Chinese economist said. My interpretation here, is that this told Prof Wolff the Chinese were willing to take risks and change the system, ever so slightly, moving it a little bit at a time. Note that this also spoke volumes about the United States, who did not see it coming, and even more volumes of the Europeans, who seemed complacent or scared crapless. Prof Wolff could not decide was it was, he though simple explanation were useless that several factors shaped something. Prof Diesen, we can see the wheels in his head turning, but remained silent.

It was a nice video.

:p
 

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
You must have missed my earlier post:

The Chinese leadership has to assume the West has the capability to build up their rare earth supply chain (not saying it will), thus they know the rare earth card has a shelf life. Playing this card means Chinese leadership considers there is considerable risk of the West starting a war against China in the next few years and want to discourage that for as long as possible, while China build up her arsenal and be ready when the time comes.View attachment 162322
What reason would the US have for starting a war before they've built up their own supply chain? If, as you say, rare earths are so critical to military production, then it would not make much sense for the US to go to war with China knowing that in a war time situation, China will certainly close down all trade with the US. If anything, this move forces the US to accelerate building its own supply chain, which would speed up the time to war, not delay it. If made for military purposes, it only makes sense if China intends to start a war, and I don't think that's the case (why would Xi be so impatient?)

Also, if China was planning to play this card (either defensively or otherwise) in a military scenario, it wouldn't give the US early notice (e.g. a month+ of lead time) to stock pile. It'd just shut down the supply without warning. The fact that both Trump's tariffs and the Chinese restrictions are dated to take effect a month+ into the future indicates to me that they want this to be public leverage. The main market for rare earths is high-end manufacturing and particularly the industries China wants to protect its position in (batteries, EVs, solar panels, chips, lasers, etc.) The military aspect is just being used to justify it, the real goal is commercial, in my opinion, since it is commercial industries that are hit the hardest in a scarcity environment (not the military, which have little concern for price and can dictate supply).
 
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vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
What reason would the US have for starting a war before they've built up their own supply chain? If, as you say, rare earths are so critical to military production, then it would not make much sense for the US to go to war with China knowing that in a war time situation, China will certainly close down all trade with the US. This sort of move, if made for military purposes, only makes sense if China intends to start a war, and I don't think that's the case (why would Xi be so impatient?)

Also, if China was planning to play this card (either defensively or otherwise) in a military scenario, it wouldn't give the US early notice (e.g. a month+ of lead time) to stock pile. It'd just shut down the supply without warning. The fact that both Trump's tariffs and the Chinese restrictions are dated to take effect a month+ into the future indicates to me that they want this to be public leverage. The main market for rare earths is high-end manufacturing and particularly the industries China wants to protect its position in (batteries, EVs, solar panels, chips, lasers, etc.) The military aspect is just being used to justify it, the real goal is commercial, in my opinion, since it is commercial industries that are hit the hardest in a scarcity environment (not the military, which have little concern for price).
Jesus, have you paid attention to what’s happening in the world? US government has been trying to increase Patriot/THAAD/Tomahawk/AIM-120D/etc missiles productions for awhile now. European countries have agreed to increase their military budgets to 5% of GDP. Why the hell China would allow them to produce high tech weapons? The very weapons that are very likely to be used on China?

China has already banned quite a few rare earth elements, the latest move simply expand to more. There isn’t likely to be stockpiling because no sane businessman like to keep a huge inventory.

The rare earth card is a one-time-use card. It is not a leverage. Continuous supply for civilian use is.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
I have to say, I don't understand the Chinese strategy with regards to rare earth export controls.

Yes it does signify that China is no longer afraid of American retaliation, which is a monumental step.

But why now? Trump seems genuinely surprised, and to a casual observer it does feel like a blow out of the blue especially when we just had a phone call where both sides were calling for cooperation.

Is it just a negotiating tactic ahead of Trump Xi meeting? To push Trump to say he opposes Taiwan independence?

Just my opinion.

1. For a truce, there is still too much hostility emanating from Washington DC. So screw them.

2. Remember that movie The Silence of the Wolves? Or was it The Silence of the Lambs? Forget, but you know what I am talking about. It is what Hanibal Lecture said as Anthony Hopkins was great, teaching that young lesbian Jody Foster, think in first principles, what is the matter in of itself? Words to that effect.

So what is going on here?

This is a ongoing process, these restrictions, this move is for the future.

Therefore, I have to expect the CCP anticipates something coming soon. Since rare earths are used in weapons production, that is a telling sign.

Prof Mearsheimer said that the war in Ukraine will come to an end, but there probably will be no peace, as those Ukrainians will be upset and still attack as domestic terrorist inside the Donbass region. That makes a lot of sense.

Now if people are being this hostile, they could turn on others later on. So I like to think of this as a pre-emptive move.
 

zbb

Senior Member
Registered Member
The war mongers are definitely panicking hard. Boeing parts are set to be banned. If Trump wants to go scotched earth then it will be fun watching MAGA being fossilized and turned into coal by the end of it.

Trade War 3.0 here we come.
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They seem to have completely missed the main point of China's latest actions. It was the US that first imposed restrictions on advanced chips and chip manufacturing equipment. China is now restricting use of Chinese rare earth in the very same advanced chips and chip manufacturing equipment that the US restricted. China is clearly saying that if you restrict X, then you're not going to be able to use Chinese rare earths in X.

Airliners need a huge amount of rare earths for their engines, avionics, flight controls, etc. If they cut off China from Boeing parts, are they ready for Boeing to be cut off from Chinese rare earths?
 
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