J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[phrozenflame]

There are two important points, considering the next 10 years.

China isnt seeking parity with US, its seeking overwhelming dominance in its backyard, so that when reunification does occur, US decides to sit it out, it immediately looses the global soft power or if it doesnt, it looses the pacific front very blatantly and clearly, not some stalemate fight, no ifs and buts and looses the hard power. You get one shot at at being the top dawg in hard power, so you can dismantle the soft power behind the legacy power and IMO, that shot increasingly seems to be inflecting towards reunification.

Thats not going to happen just with 1,300 J-20s surrounded by ~2.5k+ F-35s (+ 1-2k CCAs).

Thats going to happened with 1300 J-20s, 700-800 J-35s, and 3k CCAs.

I know this is super simplistic scenario, but the crux of the matter is J-20 production alone will not be enough to catch up to opposition 5th gen numbers. Hence, J-35 comes into play.

China caught up in tech but it was still late to the party, now, its in phase of catching up in fielding the right numbers.

Again, Im referring to end point scenario of total and utter dominance in its backyard. It is critical because it is needed to dismantle the soft power that will be used to hobble and constrict the economy if things end up somewhere in stalemate scenario. The win has to be so overwhelming that it redraws global politics, that India, Japan, Korea, Phillipines, ~Australia, they all start singing peaceful co-existence with neighbours and break the perceived shackles of outsiders. US isnt defending Taiwan, its decided that this is the hill they'll stake their soft and hard power vis a vis China.

Power is relative.

 

[GiantPanda]

The PLAAF had created a syllabus around the J-20. It is developing a new one around the J-35A.

They going to induct 100 J-20s a year. Imagine, incorporating 500 plus in the next five years -- that's about three times the entire fighter force of the RAF. And that's not including about 500 J-16s in the next 5 years too. Absorbing all that is not trivial.

So thinking that a new fighter-type built around a new engine class would increase their numbers any faster is fallacy in my opinion. It is equivalent to drinking from a fire hose and someone handing you another twenty bottles of water.

The PLAAF is -- and has been for the past two decades in its modernization drive -- a complete heavy-engine force from the J-10 to J-11 to J-16 to J-20 based on AL-31, WS-10 and now WS-15. Their doctrines are based on the range and power output of heavyweight engines. It is why they did not induct the FC-1.

They will need to develop a new syllabus for an aircraft like the J-35A from training to maintenance to operations. In the meantime, there is opportunity for SAC to begin expanding its lines for exports and the PLAN.

In fact, I think it fits in rather well for exports to help to prime the J-35 production ecosystem for the day in the coming decade when the carriers are coming in numbers (multiple 004s, 005s, maybe a second 003) and the PLAAF are ready to accept J-35As in numbers (after inducting over 1000 J-20s and J-16s.)

 

[Tomboy]

The PLAAF had created a syllabus around the J-20. It is developing a new one around the J-35A.

They going to induct 100 J-20s a year. Imagine, incorporating 500 plus in the next five years -- that's about three times the entire fighter force of the RAF. And that's not including about 500 J-16s in the next 5 years too. Absorbing all that is not trivial.

So thinking that a new fighter-type built around a new engine class would increase their numbers quicker is fallacy in my opinion.

The PLAAF is -- and has been for the past two decades in its modernization drive -- a complete heavy-engine force from the J-10 to J-11 to J-16 to J-20 based on AL-31, WS-10 and now WS-15. Their doctrines are based on the range and power output of heavyweight engines. It is why they did not induct the FC-1.

They will need to develop a new syllabus for an aircraft like the J-35A from training to maintenance to operations. In the meantime, there is opportunity for SAC to begin expanding its lines for exports and the PLAN.

In fact, I think it fits in rather well for the exports to prime the J-35 production ecosystem for the day in the coming decade when the carriers are coming in numbers (multiple 004s, 005s, maybe a second 003) and the PLAAF are ready accept J-35As in numbers (after inducting over 1000 J-20s and J-16s.)

J-16 production is likely coming to an end soon or even right now, I doubt SAC will continue making J-16 when J-35 and J-XDS will be taking up valuable floor space. It is likely more and more production lines for the J-16 will be converted to J-35 as it starts to ramp up in production. Theres already enough J-16s to basically replace the entire JH-7 fleet and more, which is basically J-16's main purpose as a strike fighter. J-20 production is basically capped at ~120 aircrafts per year with no way to acquire more 5th generation aircraft, inducting J-35A makes sense IMO. If SAC could scale up to similar numbers as CAC, then China could at peak be inducting 200+ 5th generation aircrafts per year which would help with deterring any funny ideas from the US when China would operate the largest 5th generation fleet. I doubt J-35A would be that bad, it is said that the range of J-35 is rather surprisingly high, it probably isn't ridiculously high like J-20As but there's a reason why PLAAF is inducting both at the same time. J-20As for higher end missions requiring longer range and J-35A for closer missions in the SCS. Also, J-35A's WS-19 is also said to be basically equivalent in thrust as early 4th generation "heavy engines" such as AL-31 so realistically speaking J-35A seems to be more or less a decently heavy fighter with good range. I personally believe that J-35A will be inducted in the hundreds with production scaling up very fast especially with the new additive manufacturing and SAC's newly commissioned factory, possibly reaching peak within the next 2 years while J-16 production would be whining down until J-35 production peaks which then J-16 would stop being procured with whatever extra floorspace going to J-XDS LRIP. IMO inducting J-35A en masse only after a 1000 J-20 has been made (likely late this decade or early 2030) is too late for PLAAF especially by then most of SAC's floorspace would likely be going to full production of J-XDS. China needs number right now.

 

[defenceman]

Hi,
everyone he want very bit of fighter plane as a 5th generation, in the meanwhile
USA ordering more and more F15 EX, so why not china keep its fleet of J16 or
J15 for bombing run J20 & J35 can’t carry that much weight until china have 6th
generation to bomb around in case they have to do the job
thank you

 

[Tomboy]

Hi,
everyone he want very bit of fighter plane as a 5th generation, in the meanwhile
USA ordering more and more F15 EX, so why not china keep its fleet of J16 or
J15 for bombing run J20 & J35 can’t carry that much weight until china have 6th
generation to bomb around in case they have to do the job
thank you

China already have over 400 J-16s by now compared to like a dozen of F-15EX the US has right now. USAF only have around 104 F-15EX planned with additional 219 F-15Es in service right now, that's only 343 4.5th gen bomb truck in total. No one is saying PLAAF is going to retire J-16s immediately after inducting J-35As, we are just saying it makes no sense to continue producing J-16s when more production could go into J-35A. J-16s are likely to serve for another decade or two as cheap bombtrucks for low intensity conflicts and carrier planes for EW equipment.

 

[GiantPanda]

J-16 production is likely coming to an end soon or even right now, I doubt SAC will continue making J-16 when J-35 and J-XDS will be taking up valuable floor space. It is likely more and more production lines for the J-16 will be converted to J-35 as it starts to ramp up in production. Theres already enough J-16s to basically replace the entire JH-7 fleet and more, which is basically J-16's main purpose as a strike fighter. J-20 production is basically capped at ~120 aircrafts per year with no way to acquire more 5th generation aircraft, inducting J-35A makes sense IMO. If SAC could scale up to similar numbers as CAC, then China could at peak be inducting 200+ 5th generation aircrafts per year which would help with deterring any funny ideas from the US when China would operate the largest 5th generation fleet. I doubt J-35A would be that bad, it is said that the range of J-35 is rather surprisingly high, it probably isn't ridiculously high like J-20As but there's a reason why PLAAF is inducting both at the same time. J-20As for higher end missions requiring longer range and J-35A for closer missions in the SCS. Also, J-35A's WS-19 is also said to be basically equivalent in thrust as early 4th generation "heavy engines" such as AL-31 so realistically speaking J-35A seems to be more or less a decently heavy fighter with good range. I personally believe that J-35A will be inducted in the hundreds with production scaling up very fast especially with the new additive manufacturing and SAC's newly commissioned factory, possibly reaching peak within the next 2 years while J-16 production would be whining down until J-35 production peaks which then J-16 would stop being procured with whatever extra floorspace going to J-XDS LRIP. IMO inducting J-35A en masse only after a 1000 J-20 has been made (likely late this decade or early 2030) is too late for PLAAF especially by then most of SAC's floorspace would likely be going to full production of J-XDS. China needs number right now.

J-16 production has only gone up in the past few years and it is the most widely used aircraft in interceptions and exercises around Taiwan and the East China Sea with Japan.

Range is important. There is plenty of evidence (including statements from officials/ex-officials) that PLAAF is going all J-20 and J-16 in inducting new fighters. No one was even certain there was a J-35 variant for the air force until shortly before Zhuhai.

We need more to say that the PLAAF is pivoting away from the J-16 to move towards the J-35A (which IMO would fill a completely different role.)

 

[Tomboy]

J-16 production has only gone up in the past few years and it is the most widely used aircraft in interceptions and exercises around Taiwan and the East China Sea with Japan.

Range is important. There is plenty of evidence (including statements from officials/ex-officials) that PLAAF is going all J-20 and J-16 inducting new fighters. No one was even certain there was a J-35 variant for the air force until shortly before Zhuhai.

What's the point of J-16 in a real conflict with the US? Non stealth aircrafts are going to be downed in the first wave if they are used for A2A roles, J-16 are only going to be used as launch planes for antiship munitions and that's it and you don't need over a thousand J-16s for that. You need real 5th generation aircraft to go against US's fleet of 5th generation aircraft. The only reason they are widely used for interceptions is because as a strike fighter they are nearly all based near the shore and cheap to operate. Plus, I doubt the J-35's range is going to be much worse compared to a J-15T as I would've imagined the PLAN wouldn't be too happy about that just like how the USN hated the hornet when compared to the F-14 due to its short range.

Remember J-35 is still a much larger aircraft compared to a F-35, it's nearly the size of a flanker

 

[AndrewS]

The PLAAF had created a syllabus around the J-20. It is developing a new one around the J-35A.

They going to induct 100 J-20s a year. Imagine, incorporating 500 plus in the next five years -- that's about three times the entire fighter force of the RAF. And that's not including about 500 J-16s in the next 5 years too. Absorbing all that is not trivial.

Flanker airframes looked about 40 per year for some time.
It wouldn't make sense to ramp this up to 100 per year.

They might as well focus that expansion on J-35 capacity.

 

[Schwerter_]

What's the point of J-16 in a real conflict with the US? Non stealth aircrafts are going to be downed in the first wave if they are used for A2A roles, J-16 are only going to be used as launch planes for antiship munitions and that's it and you don't need over a thousand J-16s for that. You need real 5th generation aircraft to go against US's fleet of 5th generation aircraft. The only reason they are widely used for interceptions is because as a strike fighter they are nearly all based near the shore and cheap to operate. Plus, I doubt the J-35's range is going to be much worse compared to a J-15T as I would've imagined the PLAN wouldn't be too happy about that just like how the USN hated the hornet when compared to the F-14 due to its short range.
View attachment 152799
Remember J-35 is still a much larger aircraft compared to a F-35, it's nearly the size of a flanker

Just one thing: J-35 isn't nearly the size of a flanker in terms of geometrical size, volume-wise it'll be somewhat closer but still overall it's a much smaller aircraft. Comparing it to the super hornet is probably better in this regard (thrust class, size, empty weight and MTOW, even roles since both seem to be do-it-all platforms while being relatively speaking low cost)

 

[GiantPanda]

Flanker airframes looked about 40 per year for some time.
It wouldn't make sense to ramp this up to 100 per year.

They might as well focus that expansion on J-35 capacity.

No, the rampup started a few years ago up to 70 around 2023 and then up again to around 100 last year. The J-16 production numbers are going up in the recent past not winding down as J-10s are inducted in ever decreasing numbers.

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The Flanker lines and components streams with J-16 and J-15 variants will be busy for years. You need range and carrying capacity whether PLAAF or PLAN. You cannot carry much fuel or ordance internally period.

I think the all-stealth force that people suddenly think is available "now that we have the J-35" is highly irrational.