J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[TK3600]

I think the need for J-35A is purely for air force to subsidize naval aviation, because otherwise limited scale of J-35 naval would not be worth it. I expect J-35A to remain limited. Some think J-35A would be a more spammable plane than J-20, but maybe it will not go that way.

 

[gelgoog]

Shenyang already produced about as many J-16 aircraft as there are JH-7s. I think it is highly likely they will switch production to the J-35 as fast as possible.

The factory needs to be loaded with something. I still think it is a mistake for the Air Force to go with a twin-jet as the low end but this is how things turned out. Economically a single engine stealth aircraft would have been more cost effective. The twin-jet mostly makes sense for the Navy. Gives a lower chance of a pilot dropping into the ocean in case of engine failure.

 

[TK3600]

While smaller, I don't think J-35 is the low end. It should be as good as J-20 minus the fact smaller size meant reduction in range and what not. Its introduction to air force might be an industrial concern rather than some specialized capability.

 

[gelgoog]

The low end will likely be loyal wingmen drones.

Yeah, like I said the Air Force ordered it because they need more leading edge air superiority aircraft, and this is the best Shenyang has to offer right now.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Even PLAAF plan to replace legacy airframe 1 to 1, like you said, only need 7 years with current J-20 production rate.

This isn't just numbers.

J-20 is limited to external data feed and radar working in SAR mode when it comes to attacking ground targets.
If its EOTS is indeed LWIR, it won't come very useful even for positive human id.

J-20 is very much a "not a pound for air to ground" kind of aircraft.
I.e. in most situations, when you're doing strike, you're risking piloted aircraft for a glorified truck work.

I think the need for J-35A is purely for air force to subsidize naval aviation, because otherwise limited scale of J-35 naval would not be worth it. I expect J-35A to remain limited. Some think J-35A would be a more spammable plane than J-20, but maybe it will not go that way.

They developed their own variant, though.
"Subsidy" could've been done with just a j-35.

 

[lcloo]

The way I look at it is that for the period between 2025 to 2035, China would need a more balance high-low mixed for combat effectiveness and economy in operations with below acquisitions.

High end heavy weights - J20 and its variants should be needed in such number to replace all existing heavy weight 4.5 gen Flankers plus any need in quantity to counter near future threats. My guess is at least 1,000 more J20 (all variants) would be built in the next 10 years.

Middle/Low end - J35A to replace all J7, J8, J10 (all variants) and early 4 gen J11A . The question is how many J35A is required to replace these 3th gen and 4th gen fighter jets. And also how many additional numbers for near future threats.

J35A has the disadvantage to J20 in that its induction into service is late by a decade. And when the 6th gens enter IOC, the induction rates of J35A might be winding down, as J20 would be as well. However, if China need far more fighters than its existing fleets, IMO, at least 500-700 J35A might be needed.

If China's economy can sustain operation of around 3,000 fighter jets at the end of the next 10 years, I see no reason not to do so. The publicly circulated unconfirmed reports said China has 1,200 to 1,500 fighter jets at this moment. So there is a possibility that China would want to double its fighter jet strength if the threats justify.

ALso, I don't see CCA replace manned fighter jets in the next 10 years (2025-2035), instead they would be like complement to manned fighter. Though this might change in or after 2035 when CCA's AI becomes mature.

 

[Gloire_bb]

The low end will likely be loyal wingmen drones.

Too early for drones to be lo.
At their current state, they're multipliers. But even smallest crewed jet represents a different capability set.

 

[SteelBird]

Speaking of which, the Vietnamese delegation visiting the AVIC booth at LIMA and looking at the J-35 and J-10CE

Since the air battle between India and Pakistan on 7-May, Vietnamese media have report a lot on this. Guess what's the comments from their netizens? "If China were not a neighbor and had a lot of border conflicts with Vietnam, a lot of Chinese military stuff would be very good to buy". That means, they like Chinese stuff, but they won't buy due to political reasons.

 

[ENTED64]

Even PLAAF plan to replace legacy airframe 1 to 1, like you said, only need 7 years with current J-20 production rate.
Why you need to shorten it to 5 or less by adopt J-35A at larger scale? Are we in war time now?
What do you do with the production line and workers after 5 years?
Tech is advancing every year quickly and we're at the brink of CCA revolution not to mention 6th gen.
Ramping up production like no tomorrow is not a wise investment.
On the contrary, If CCA concept actually works this approach would be a disaster.

7 years is a long time and whatever you might think, clearly the PLAAF thinks they need J-35A otherwise they wouldn't be ordering it. So perhaps they think they want to replace it faster than 7 years, perhaps they think they want more planes in general, perhaps they think J-35A is worth it in and of itself. Bottom line there's some reason for it otherwise they wouldn't adopt it and helping to advertise for exports alone is not enough.

So you might think this is excessive but they disagree. Further even if they ramp up to say 50 J-35A a year over a few years this is hardly "ramping up production like no tomorrow". It would only be a little higher than current procurement rates given J-10C and J-16 production rates will be declining.

Also nobody is talking about shutting down J-35A production line in 5 years. Just like J-16 in production while J-20 is in production, J-35A can still be produced and useful long after 6th gen and CCA make its debut. Essentially your point only makes sense if CCA and 6th gen make all previous planes completely worthless. This seems unlikely and regardless conservative institutions like the military aren't going to just cancel all current programs in favor of an unproven not yet ready wunderwaffe. Besides by your logic they should shut down J-20 production too while they're at it.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Speaking of which, the Vietnamese delegation visiting the AVIC booth at LIMA and looking at the J-35 and J-10CE

Supposedly Japanese and French delegates were checking it out too. Doesn’t necessarily mean they are interested in acquisition but of course there is spotlight effect.