As the first rule of data analysis shows, trash-in =
Trash-out. But if you build a model on wishful thinking and feed it trash fake data, is it any wonder you get an Idiot Sandwich result?
The only factor about Trump’s tariffs move that surprised China was how batshit insane and utterly stupid it was.
Paradoxically, this is likely to reduce the likelihood of a kinetic confrontation as China has to both dial up the stupidity levels of its American behaviour model by a massive level, as well as dial down its assumptions about America’s self preservation awareness capabilities. This might mean it’s model predicts America will press the Big Red Button in the event of war because it’s too stupid and stubborn to understand the consequences of doing so beyond the immediate gratification it gets from being able to hurt the foe.
China's calculus involving a nuclear exchange with the US changed quite a bit after COVID, as China was quite astonished by the amount of deaths that the US was able to tolerate.