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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can shut it down as much as you want but claiming it is purely CSIS source is incorrect when they have linked the websites to the Informant. Of course their validity is hardly reliable but claiming it is purely the think tank making up their claims is also incorrect.
All those links are from mainstream media, is not like the have access to REAL inside information to come up with their numbers or they can back it up in technical way. That is the problem with these stooges think tankers, they have cost US semiconductor companies billions based on the most superficial information that they could find in MSM, social media and financial guys who have never worked in the industry let alone in China semiconductor industry or even its electronic industry. Is not me just saying this, is the people who work in the industry.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
All those links are from mainstream media, is not like the have access to REAL inside information to come up with their numbers or they can back it up in technical way.

Yes but my main point was that not all of it was a claim made up by the think tank. The source was not technically 100% them depending on which section. That is the only thing I am saying.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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‘Chips on the table’: Taiwan pushes for closer US ties as China threat looms​

Hours after Taiwan’s crown jewel company promised that it would invest an extra $100bn in the US, President Donald Trump gave a chilling reminder of why so many in the Asian country are keen to seek his favour.

Trump’s apparent readiness to abandon Kyiv, suspending military aid to Ukraine after bluntly telling President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday that he didn’t “have the cards” in US-brokered peace talks, has left many Taiwanese worried that Trump could abandon their country, leaving it to the mercy of China.

Some in Taiwan hope its dominant semiconductor sector could help keep the country in Trump’s good graces. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, which produces 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced chips, late on Monday pledged to raise its investment in Arizona from $65bn to $165bn.

“We need to put our bargaining chips on the table,” said Lo Chih-cheng, a former lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive party. “Taiwan’s strategic importance is much bigger than that of Ukraine, and that we have a central role in the global chip industry supply chain.”

In comments to reporters on Monday before TSMC’s announcement Taiwan’s defence minister Wellington Koo acknowledged that “you cannot just talk about values and neglect national interests”.

“Of course, the US also wants to prioritise its national interests,” he said. Taiwan must ask itself “if safeguarding peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and the status quo in . . . the Taiwan Strait is a core US interest”.

For Taiwan, US backing is at least as vital as for Ukraine. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and threatens to annex it by force if Taipei refuses to submit under its control indefinitely.

The US has for decades helped protect Taiwan against that threat. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington regards attempts to determine Taiwan’s future by non-peaceful means as an issue of grave concern to the US. It also commits to providing Taipei with defensive weapons and maintaining its own capacity to resist coercion that would jeopardise Taiwan’s security.

But Trump has borne little personal affection for Taiwan, repeatedly accused the country of “stealing” the US semiconductor business and freeriding on its security support.

According to his former national security adviser John Bolton, Trump was “dyspeptic” about Taiwan, comparing it to the tip of his pen and China to his massive desk.

The initial signals from the White House on Monday were promising. At a friendly joint appearance, a triumphant Trump told TSMC chair CC Wei that the chipmaker was “ahead of the game” because its US-made chips would avoid looming tariffs on imported semiconductors.

He seemed even more pleased when Wei repeatedly thanked him for the “opportunity” — a stark contrast to the clash with Zelenskyy, who was admonished for failing to adequately display gratitude.

But there are questions over how long the deal will satisfy Washington. Trump administration officials have previously pressed TSMC to help run fabrication plants for Intel, which has fallen behind in cutting-edge manufacturing, make equity investments in Intel or spin off its US operations into a company with a US government stake, according to people familiar with the situation.

Taiwan’s security has long been intertwined with its chip manufacturing might. Its government and public believe that as long as the US and other democracies remain dependent on its supplies, they will be more willing to help defend the country against a Chinese attack.

“Taiwan should be careful: If the ‘silicon shield’ really exists, wouldn’t passing the most advanced technology to the US make it brittle?” said Huang Kwei-bo, professor of diplomacy at National ChengChi University in Taipei.

The TSMC deal appeared to substantiate those concerns. The company said its new investment would include a research and development centre in Arizona. Previously, TSMC had insisted on keeping R&D concentrated in Taiwan, which the government also sees as crucial.

President Lai Ching-te’s office on Tuesday said the government, which needs to approve the investment, would assist TSMC but would also do “gatekeeping” to ensure the most advanced technology remained at home.

Trump further fanned those fears when he said the investment would put “a big part of [TSMC’s chip manufacturing] in the US”, allowing the company to “diversify to a very safe place”, which would “have a big impact if something should happen” with Taiwan.

According to a poll released last week by an opposition-backed foundation which Huang runs, 85 per cent of respondents opposed the transfer of TSMC’s 2 nanometre production technology to the US. More than 60 per cent believe the US has the upper hand in negotiations with Taiwan.

They have reason to. Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US widened by $26.1bn to $73.9bn last year — partly due to booming artificial intelligence chip exports — opening up another flank to the US president’s planned “reciprocal” tariffs.

Lai has pledged to increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, as well as increase investment and procurement from the US.

State-owned oil company CPC could step up liquefied natural gas spot market buying from the US, raising its proportion of total imports from the US from 9.5 per cent to 25 per cent, according to people familiar with the considerations.

Separately, Taiwanese and US officials are working on an arms procurement package worth up to $10bn, including Himars rocket launchers, command, control and intelligence systems and equipment for strengthening the reserve force. Taipei aims to submit a draft special budget for the package later this year — an unusually short timeline.

Taipei has also promised to encourage its tech manufacturing sector to increase US investment, such as through a government-backed industrial park modelled on Taiwan’s science parks. Some US officials also see potential for equity investments by Taiwanese precision parts and machine tool makers to help strengthen the struggling US defence supply chain.

Apart from economic inducements, Taiwan hopes its strategic position, in an island chain off the Chinese coast with Japan and the Philippines, will ensure Washington’s commitment.

Koo, the defence minister, said the Indo-Pacific region remained a core US interest. Safeguarding the status quo in the Taiwan Strait was a “common goal” for Taipei and Washington, he added, echoing Trump’s words that the countries were jointly pursuing “peace through strength”.
But many Taiwanese remain wary.

“Who knows what Trump will do once he negotiates with [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping?” asked the chief executive of a major Taiwanese technology company who preferred to remain anonymous. “He could say: ‘If you balance our $295bn trade deficit, we’ll give you Taiwan.’”
Trump administration officials have previously pressed TSMC to help run fabrication plants for Intel, which has fallen behind in cutting-edge manufacturing, make equity investments in Intel or spin off its US operations into a company with a US government stake, according to people familiar with the situation.
According to TrendForce, if increased investment alone is not enough to satisfy the U.S. government, TSMC may also consider spinning off its U.S. operations into a separate, publicly traded company in the U.S.

Good lord. I didn’t think that the Bobas could sell themselves off harder. They are going spend $165 billion building and operating 6 fabs in Arizona before considering the possibility of handing them over to the US government.
 

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
I asked about this exact scenario a month ago in the Official Xi Jinping Thought discussion thread.

For the record, I tried @tygyg1111 's suggestion and typed Mr. Xi, pls send J36 sixth-gen stealth cruiser into the deepseek prompt before, I only got "Sorry, that's beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else."

I would not advise anyone to defect to China or to any other country, or to otherwise betray their own country.

Loyalty matters. Fidelity counts.

However, since you're asking: hypothetically speaking, if an American -- in particular a disgruntled current or former federal employee -- was to defect, there are probably a few likely paths forward.

1. The CIA is known to openly recruit foreign assets online, in particularly through their website on TOR. IIRC, they got a Telegram channel too. Now, I'm not sure if the MSS or any other Chinese agency is so bold as to imitate the CIA in this instance, but there are probably ways to reach them digitally.

2. Another option is to walk into a Chinese diplomatic mission in a third country, especially one that is easy to travel to, and whose domestic counterintelligence services apparatus is negligible or at least not in cahoots with any FIVEYE or FIVEYE adjacent counterparts.

3. American defectors, who are solely motivated by financial incentives, may want to keep their identity unknown to Chinese intelligence for their own safety. For such traitors, one potential path would be to reach out to a Chinese diplomatic mission electronically or even by snail mail with instructions for establishing secure and anonymized communications.

4. If the would be defector has a lot to offer via debriefings, and thinks the Chinese authorities will grant them resettlement solely on that basis, then they can just fly to Hong Kong.

Not looking to end up on a FBI watchlist or enable treason whatsoever, so not going to get instructive here.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Just talking hypothetical scenarios based on watching James Bond movies and that old show called Alias.

So don't any of you get silly and do anything bad or dumb with my non-instructions! :)
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
The odds of Iran integrating into an "Arab empire" is even less likely than EU-Russian integration in the foreseeable future.

I don't know if you've ever met any Iranians, but Iranians and Arabs are like water and oil. They don't mix, dude.
Iran largest trade partners are Arabs or Arab depended countries. Largest Iranian diaspora outside US is in Arab countries. Arab aviation provided connectivity to Iranians. Even if Iranian are working for western firms. the likely hood that Arabs and Jews are the major shareholders. it is not like Iranians are not working for them. They just need to drop any pretense of independence publicly.
This extreme wealth of Gulf Monarchies which no other allies of US can surpass is due to there own intelligence and understanding of how the world works. this Norway sovereign wealth would not exist if Arab want to kick it from behind. Trump also want to visit Saudi and all those people are meeting there. this is the place where European will not hear or understand they are talking about them. this all due hiring competent people that provide fool proof surveillance.
EU-Russia integration will happen once Gulf Monarchies feel that they have achieved much more dominance in this world. Just recently Putin told head of Tatarstan to work with Globalist Islamic organizations. and Russian construction minister is using Construction to restore society to Pre-Soviet times. Hard Power and Soft Power is working side by side it is just that Soft Power is not visible to those who has not studied Arabic Soft Power. Ukraine is just favorite punching bag so easily point out but they know the rest of the world well. Zelensky is fighting with Trump but not with Arabic Soft Power who actually invaded his country.

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Details of the "Ukrainian nude photo shoot" in Dubai​

 
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