Heath maintains that China has tipped over into decline by many metrics, such as demographics and economic health. He prophesies that decline will unsettle the CCP regime, amplifying the party’s obsession with staying in power and setting in motion a vicious cycle that further debilitates combat readiness within the PLA. Prospects of war would recede further than they already have.
In short, Timothy Heath has done an admirable job of showing that the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army are guilty of self-defeating behavior and unlikely to amend practices likely to impair combat performance. They are swimming upstream from the standpoint of political and military culture. We and our regional allies, partners, and friends should welcome China’s self-inflicted harm in the military demesne.