It’s a gradual ramp up, same as first term Trump. He needs to first take care of the small fries before taking on China. The idea being, I’m going to show China I’m serious and won’t be stopped. Everyone else has surrendered so you should too, before it gets worse. It’s a classic kill the chicken to scare the monkey tactic. Trump will make examples of Canada, Mexico, EU, etc. This will in his mind intimidate China to negotiate since if he’s willing to do this to US allies, imagine what he’ll do to enemies.Trump is always coming after China. Who knows, maybe he is putting these tariffs with plans to get Canada and Mexico in line to join his crusade against China. If they refuse, then he might threaten to increase their pain with sanctions, military action, and even annexation. Twist your friends' arms, and they'll eventually obey. That's what Trump and America loves to do.
I'm predicting that Canada will fold again, like it had always done. Mexico might hold out for awhile, but should eventually fold too because America is too close, and too important economically to pick a fight with.
I think China anticipates this because it was never realistic to expect to get America's own neighbours to turn against it right now. That is why China's ultimate strategy is to go after America itself, not its satrapies. That is probably why we see the 6th gen fighter demonstrations, and the announcement of DeepSeek R1. That XHS craze was just a sweet coincidental bonus.
But Beijing is not likely to fall for it. Reason? China practically invented 杀鸡儆猴 as a saying. They know exactly what Trump is doing. Trump being able to scare his allies into submission implies little as they are vassals to begin with. Killing chickens do not give you leverage when negotiating with tigers.