PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[AndrewS]

there is also a geography piece. Iranian missiles have to traverse thousands of km of airspace that are under US/Israeli control, with various air based and ground based AD and sensors along the way. in the case of Taiwan, air space beyond the eastern coast of the island are all likely under PLAAF control. PLA rockets also have to travel much shorter distances, from various angles. in fact, geography works against Taiwan offensively too, where it intends to hit any of the larger cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen etc), its missiles also must travel long distances under intense PLA AA fire.

Yes.

The other thing to remember is that since the Middle East erupted, I think the likelihood of a Taiwan war has dropped to near zero.

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After the Pelosi episode, when the US actually had to face the prospect of an actual war, I suspect that US hardliners looked at the situation and even they balked at what a US-China war would actually mean.

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But let's take a hypothetical scenario where China believes a war with the US is inevitable, perhaps due to the US supporting Taiwan's formal independence.

The rational course of action is for China pre-empt this by actively a support a proxy war or directly intervene against Israel due to:

1. Israel's deliberate mass starvation (definitely a war crime and arguably a genocide) of 2 million people in Gaza, which has been under Israel Army military occupation for over 50 years
2. The 50+ year military occupation of the West Bank by the Israel Army, which is supporting 500,000 Jewish colonists trying to take control of the West Bank from the 3 million existing Palestinian inhabitants

My guess is that such objectives would enjoy broad support around the world. Remember that the latest polls show that even in the USA, 55% of Americans disapprove of what Israel is doing in Gaza.

If the US supports Israel, then they become the "bad guys" in the eyes of a majority of the world, and puts China on the side of the "good guys". If the US and China are in conflict in the Middle East, everyone will be asking why, which shines a huge spotlight on Israel as a nasty imperialist colonial state.

From a military perspective, it also means the US Navy escorting cargo ships to Israel. They would have to run a missile blockade, similar to how the US Navy has to enter deep into China's A2AD zone to resupply Taiwan. It would be very costly and bleed the US military.

My best guess is that Israel would end up with its electricity grid destroyed and under maritime blockade, with incoming cargo ships under missile attack for weeks/months/years.

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This sort of scenario should be obvious enough to both US and Chinese decision-makers, and they both would have a huge interest in preventing this from happening.

 

[sanctionsevader]

The rational course of action is for China pre-empt this by actively a support a proxy war or directly intervene against Israel

How does PRC support factor into this though? How does this support materialize and who is the regional actor that takes action on the PRC's behalf?

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

But let's take a hypothetical scenario where China believes a war with the US is inevitable, perhaps due to the US supporting Taiwan's formal independence.

The US leadership is not asinine, so the US will not be pushing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait while it's attention and resources are divided by the ongoing conflicts in the Ukraine and Palestine. So your hypothetical situation would never come to pass.

 

[gelgoog]

The US leadership is not asinine, so the US will not be pushing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait while it's attention and resources are divided by the ongoing conflicts in the Ukraine and Palestine. So your hypothetical situation would never come to pass.

I think you underestimate the US leadership's belief in their own superiority above all others. And they still think they are immune from counter-strike. There is nothing rational about these people.

 

[AndrewS]

The US leadership is not asinine, so the US will not be pushing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait while it's attention and resources are divided by the ongoing conflicts in the Ukraine and Palestine. So your hypothetical situation would never come to pass.

And suppose it is Taiwan that says it will declare independence, and the US feels compelled to support them?
The US is being dragged along for the ride.
It's like how Israel is dragging the US down with them

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I agree that such a hypothetical situation involving a US-China-Israel-Palestine proxy war likely won't happen, because both China and the US can see the consequences and will work to avoid this.

But I think it's still useful to outline such a hypothetical scenario, as there may still be some hardliners in the US who still think the US declaring war on China is an option.

It seems to be fashionable these days for Republicans to call China "evil"
But if the US is actively supporting Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank with weaponry, then who are the bad guys?

From my perspective, I see unqualified US support of Israel as a disaster for the USA.

 

[AndrewS]

How does PRC support factor into this though? How does this support materialize and who is the regional actor that takes action on the PRC's behalf?

It's not really about regional actors working on behalf of China.

There are already many regional actors effectively at war with Israel.

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To name a few:

Because of Gaza, the Houthis have already declared and more importantly, are enforcing a blockade of Israel's southern ports facing the Red Sea. They've already decided that this is worth being subjected to airstrikes by the US military. The Houthis have nothing left to lose, and much to gain from Chinese support. Think Chinese anti-ship missiles or long-range cruise missiles/drones.

Iran and Israel have been in an undeclared shadow war for decades now, where they would openly assassinate and conduct sabotage against each other. And now, Iran is openly launching large-scale missile attacks from Iranian territory directly against Israel. Suppose Iran gets access to Chinese weapons, which have been specifically designed for an A2AD scenario against the US military. Iran could credibly threaten US aircraft carriers operating in the Mediterranean for example. Cargo ships heading to Israeli ports are even more vulnerable.

6 months ago, it seemed like Hezbollah was ready to go to war against Israel on behalf of Gaza, but it looks like Iran pulled them back because Iran didn't want a full-scale war.
Today, we see the Israeli Army and Hezbollah attacking and killing each other daily at the border.
Suppose Hezbollah gets access to large amounts of Chinese weapons?
At a minimum, you're looking at more lethal tit-for-tat attacks, with Hezbollah potentially striking deep into Israel with large numbers of low-cost precision guided weapons.

 

[supersnoop]

I think you underestimate the US leadership's belief in their own superiority above all others. And they still think they are immune from counter-strike. There is nothing rational about these people.

The US government is indeed full of these irrational people over the years (ie Dick Chaney), but there are rational people too. We were looking at a very similar scenario 20 years ago and Dick Chaney was convinced that the US could handle Iraq, Afghanistan, and Taiwan at the same time.

And suppose it is Taiwan that says it will declare independence, and the US feels compelled to support them?
The US is being dragged along for the ride.
It's like how Israel is dragging the US down with them

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I agree that such a hypothetical situation involving a US-China-Israel-Palestine proxy war likely won't happen, because both China and the US can see the consequences and will work to avoid this.

But I think it's still useful to outline such a hypothetical scenario, as there may still be some hardliners in the US who still think the US declaring war on China is an option.

It seems to be fashionable these days for Republicans to call China "evil"
But if the US is actively supporting Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank with weaponry, then who are the bad guys?

From my perspective, I see unqualified US support of Israel as a disaster for the USA.

The question would be why Taiwan would be compelled to do so if the US was weary of it. Last time CSB tried (as above), Bush Jr. told him to punt it.

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Another thing I wanted to point out. This missile swarm tactic is not too unlike the US' future strategy of swarms of JASSM and LRASM. Are they really LO-enough to avoid this kind of mass interception in the face of high volume CAP, connected sensor networks from sea to land as the PLA is working on? Are they as "jam-proof" as they are designed to be?

 

[gpt]

And they still think they are immune from counter-strike. There is nothing rational about these people.

Better yet they think they can win a nuclear war

 

[supersnoop]

View attachment 128176

Better yet they think they can win a nuclear war

Reminds me of something I just read on Reddit the other day about whether Chinese capabilities are real or not.

"So you want to risk nuclear war to find this out? Don't know why people are so excited to play Fallout IRL"

 

[Heresy]

View attachment 128176

Better yet they think they can win a nuclear war

That sounds like u/Nukem_extracrispy. He's an amusing clown. You should ask him, "well, if the United States had such superiority, why haven't they eliminated the Russian, Chinese and North Korean arsenals then?" And watch him squirm and respond with something asinine like, "...because American leaders are weak.." or something like that.

Fairly certain the guy is some low-level African American ex-contractor who worked for the U.S. military in some capacity and lives in Taiwan.