How to stop Recession & advice to Mr Bernake'''

bomber

New Member
My Topic is not only for armed forces forum but also for Business&politics forums.
I like to sharing my idea to who are active in this forum...you are my friends.

Now,Business is dawn turning in the world,People are unemployment and get depression effect via Recession.Then many problems can be seen at TV & Newspaper ,for examples:conflicts,riots,demonstration,fighting,bomb blasts,robbery,looting,and more crimes.I worry about it can toward to the Wars.
Very Simple Idea to Mr Bernake& US & G*8 countries leaders.....
According to the Washinton post news,Mr,Berake still believe in stimulus plan so i want to give my little idea to fill Mr Bernake's plan for all.
Very Simple My Idea is followed..
1#Help & Give loan as credit Loan $ to undeveloped countries to build their infrastructure &health,education sectors to be improved.(TRUE GLOBALIZATION).
For friends***I understand on credit loan is..not give as $ in cash or transfer $ ,just supply equal amount of necessaries technology& hard wares,goods ,foods,etc to poor countries for build infrastructure and upgrade health,education ,etc.
Then US & Related country must manufacture to supply material,technology,products.I believe that unemployment problem will be cool and crimes will be decreased.
:coffee:
 
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pla101prc

Senior Member
Who is Mr. Bernake (Mr. Berake)? Did you mean Mr. Barack --- Barack Obama?

bernanke is as powerful as obama when it comes to economic policies

but the idea now isnt how to stop recession, even if you just leave it alone the recession will have to stop by itself at some point. the important thing is how to avoid a lost decade.
the economists in the US like to think that recession is falling into a whole and recovery is when you stop falling, ordinary ppl of course think that recovery is when you crawl back out.
 

Schumacher

Senior Member
How to stop recessions ? One idea may be to become like N Korea. :)
Seriously, once you've 'opened up' recessions are unavoidable, it's part of the cycle. What a country should do is not so much different from sound advices to individuals like
1) don't overspend/gamble, try to prevent bubbles as much as possible. Try to reduce wasteful spending like maybe start just one war instead of two, or better still, no war at all :)
Reducing the size of any bubbles will also reduce to pain/length of any recessions.
If your 'high' standard of living is based largely on credit, it's only artificial anyway.

2) save during good times so you can spend/invest during bad times, some of the best deals can be found during bad times. Try not to waste time with 'wizards' who come up with excuses like too much savings is the major problem. It's not 100% good but most of the time it's a good 'problem' to have.
3) direct funds to good stuffs that actually benefits the people like education, businesses, environments instead of CEO's bonuses or military contractors. Government and the people should run the countries, not the CEOs.

4) and this may cause some blood pressures to rise, so I'll be subtle. :) Learn from the economies, like the one whose name starts with C over the eastern border of Borat's country, who are coping well now especially how they implement the above points etc. Don't stick your head in the sand insisting the world is flat because you dislike seeing it's round or try still to argue it's flat. It's pathetic behavior for any adults let alone policy makers.

Bernanke's role is only on the monetary side which might be helpful in inflating away some debts but it is ultimately only plugging holes created by fiscal policies.
 

bomber

New Member
Who is Mr. Bernake (Mr. Berake)? Did you mean Mr. Barack --- Barack Obama?

Dear brother,
I also reply a post of you at the topic should burma use multi billion $ for self defense...about I had been to PP and around and we are coming from the Mon Khmer Tribe....etc.

Now,I just want to talk about World Business speed is dawn to 5km/hr slow...& nearly stop(recession).
Mr,Bernarke is successor of Mr.Alan Greenspan (US Financial Pilot) or former Chairman of the Central bank Of USA.
This topic is not to be posted at this area but War always explode after Recession (great Depression)cz of unstable saturation,Unemployment to looting,organized crime ,etc in worldwide .
So,I don,t want to see the bloody wars and production Arms & Ammunition to solve unemployment problem.
Credit Loans to LDC countries and US,and Richest countries can solve the unemployment problem by credit loan system...Win win idea""""":coffee:
 

Ambivalent

Junior Member
Interesting topic. My degrees, BA before my active duty and MA more recently, are both in Economics with particular interests in international trade and finance and development economics.
I can see one very important thing the US in particular must do in the near future, but not this year or next. The US must run budget surpluses for a decade or more to pay down it's national debt. Deficit spending is driving what I call the dual deficits, the budget deficit and the trade deficit. The US spends more than it takes in from taxes, and finances this with Treasury Bills. In a textbook world there is a practical limit to how much of such debt financing a nation may do, as this tends to drive up interest rates and make such borrowing increasingly expensive. The US has short circuited this normal mechanism.
Most Asian nations are growing their economies by developing export oriented industries. They grow their economies by selling stuff to developed nations, in particular the USA. They traditionally run a trade surplus against the US, and the US runs trade deficits year after year. Again, in a textbook world, this should be self correcting. The US buys more abroad than it sells, so dollars should pile up in surplus, lower their value in trade as with any commodity in surplus. This would make US exports a comparative bargain while driving up the cost of foreign imports. However, Japan, China and others cannot afford to loose market share in the US to a rising dollar. Their economic growth would be badly affected. What to do? Well, trade surplus US dollars for all those T-Bills the US Treasury is furiously hawking to all and sundry.
This sordid little trade has gone on for decades, back into the Reagan administration at least. It works for everyone, well almost, but I'll get to that. Asian exporters maintain their favorable terms of trade and grow their economies seemingly without limit. The US government is allowed to spend freely with no constraining financial discipline. The US consumer, ever afraid of that boogyman called inflation ( we never forget the Nixon era stagflation ) get and endless supply of cheap Japanese and now Chinese consumer goods. The CPI is low, Congressmen take home the pork to their districts and Asian Inc, marches forward with development. What's not to like?
Well, this process effectively inflated the Japanese economy until the twin bubbles of their stock and real estate markets both burst. You have to know Chinese leaders see what happened to Japan and suck air between their teeth with every new purchase of US T-Bills. The globe is flooded with US debt, and like any commodity in surplus, it will fall in value. This is a congressmans, and Ben Bernake's worst nightmare. Fisical discipline. Oh the horror! Only the current upheaval bought the US a little, and I do mean a very little time. Right now, for the very immediate future, US debt still looks pretty safe to investors. As other, less leveraged economies recover this picture will change, and rapidly.
My WiFi spot is about to close, so I will finish this half done. In short the US must cut it's foreign debt substantially. But how, when so much value has been lost in the US and the US consumer will no longer be buying for maybe my lifetime. The days of the free spending US consumer are over for a very long time. What now? To be continued.
 

Ambivalent

Junior Member
For the future I could not disagree more with Schumacher. Cycles of boom and bust seem to be an inevitable part of capitalism, though the frequency and amplitude seem to governed by policy choices. One may regulate a capitalist economy and, yes, this reduces the maximum attainable profit during boom times but it also tends to moderate greatly the effects of periodic economic declines. Autarky, however, is a guarantee of poverty. Autarky, in the more polite guise of "import substitution, was adopted by a number of undeveloped nations in Latin America after WWII, as well as by India. The notion was a nation would develop industrially if it had an example of every major industry, each protected by law from competition by exports. The theory was that in time no import protection would be necessary after industries matured. We say auto industries develop in nations without a big enough market to sustain one, simply because the government financed it's existence and protected the local market from competition. The same was true of steel and other heavy industries. Instead of maturing and becoming more competitive, these industries relied on government subsidy and never became cost or quality competitive with their global competitors. When Brazil, India and other nations finally opened their borders to foreign competition very often the subsidized local firms collapsed. They should too. For the consumers, the better deal was obvious, superior quality at a lower price from the foreign goods. Those firms that survived had to make a better product for less money. Some like Embraer did fine. Some, like the old Argentine and Brazilian Chrysler plants closed. Competition and free trade also meant more choices for the consumer, and for business. Instead of being restricted to buying only from the state protected local firm consumers and businesses could buy from a wider global selection of providers of goods and services.
For the US, the primary goal still must be to eliminate our foreign debt. Restricting trade, or subsidizing domestic firms, is still the wrong thing to do. One cannot legitimately claim that the US is de-industrializing solely due to cheap foreign labor. With freely floating currencies and no government intervention, trade imbalances are self correcting. A nation with a trade deficit will see it currency pile up in surplus abroad, causing this currency to loose value in trade. The converse is that the currency of the nation running the surplus will rise in value. This change in currency values will make the exports of the nation running the deficit less costly abroad while making imports more costly. In this fashion trade deficits are self correcting. I explained above how the US and it's trade partners, each for their own selfish reasons, short circuited this natural tendency of markets to maintain equilibrium. To restore equilibrium the US must pay down it's debt regularly and with determination. At the same time the US must demand other nations float their currencies. Yes, this means China. China has used it's fixed currency value to manipulate the terms of trade in it's favor. China is not alone, just the largest offender. If there is one single restriction to free trade I would advocate it would be to design tariffs to counteract the effects of fixed value currencies. Aside from that, I am of the firm opinion that when the US pays down it's debt, it will find it's industries are quite competitive abroad. The dollar must fall in value, it has been maintained artificially high for decades. Let currencies float and you will find US firms are as competitive as any.
I also recommend re-writing US tax laws, which currently favor financial investment over industrial investment. Money flows to that which will turn the greatest profit, and US tax laws strongly favor investment income over industrial income.
For the sort term, there may have to be some sort of national debt forgiveness. The financial industry is still tied down with too much bad debt. Business cannot expand absent loans, and loans are not being made right now. Had it been my call a year ago I would have put $100,000 into every mortgage in the nation. I would not give the money to the banks or to the homeowners, but put it only into each mortgage. With no mortgage default crisis to worry about, the whole credit and banking default crisis would have been nipped in the bud. Now it is too late to save mortgages, but there are still something like $6 trillion in bad credit card debt outstanding and a second wave or mortgage defaults looming from people who lost their jobs. Add to this the fact that a large proportion of the US workforce has taken a permanent, long term cut in pay, and there will not soon be an economic recovery. The optimists are all full of hooey. This will be at least a decade of pain and low to no growth.
I have to add that I think China's economic growth numbers are false. Container volume in the ports of LA and Long Beach are off 17% and 24% respectively. These twin ports are China's traditional land bridge to the US and Europe. There is no way China is growing at the rate claimed.
 

KYli

Brigadier
For the future I could not disagree more with Schumacher. Cycles of boom and bust seem to be an inevitable part of capitalism, though the frequency and amplitude seem to governed by policy choices.
Economic 101, a good start :).
We say auto industries develop in nations without a big enough market to sustain one, simply because the government financed it's existence and protected the local market from competition. The same was true of steel and other heavy industries. Instead of maturing and becoming more competitive, these industries relied on government subsidy and never became cost or quality competitive with their global competitors. When Brazil, India and other nations finally opened their borders to foreign competition very often the subsidized local firms collapsed. They should too. For the consumers, the better deal was obvious, superior quality at a lower price from the foreign goods. Those firms that survived had to make a better product for less money. Some like Embraer did fine. Some, like the old Argentine and Brazilian Chrysler plants closed. Competition and free trade also meant more choices for the consumer, and for business. Instead of being restricted to buying only from the state protected local firm consumers and businesses could buy from a wider global selection of providers of goods and services.
The invisible hand and Laissez faire, I wouldn't want to argue with Adam smith or the conservatives, would I?
For the US, the primary goal still must be to eliminate our foreign debt. Restricting trade, or subsidizing domestic firms, is still the wrong thing to do. One cannot legitimately claim that the US is de-industrializing solely due to cheap foreign labor. With freely floating currencies and no government intervention, trade imbalances are self correcting. A nation with a trade deficit will see it currency pile up in surplus abroad, causing this currency to loose value in trade. The converse is that the currency of the nation running the surplus will rise in value. This change in currency values will make the exports of the nation running the deficit less costly abroad while making imports more costly. In this fashion trade deficits are self correcting.
I have to agree with you here.
At the same time the US must demand other nations float their currencies. Yes, this means China. China has used it's fixed currency value to manipulate the terms of trade in it's favor. China is not alone, just the largest offender. If there is one single restriction to free trade I would advocate it would be to design tariffs to counteract the effects of fixed value currencies. Aside from that, I am of the firm opinion that when the US pays down it's debt, it will find it's industries are quite competitive abroad. The dollar must fall in value, it has been maintained artificially high for decades. Let currencies float and you will find US firms are as competitive as any.
If you don't mind, I would like to talk a little bit about history here. In 1989, briefly after Tiananmen Square the west and Japan imposed a very strict economic and arms emborges toward China, in order to break this encirclement China enacted a hold range of reforms. One of primarily objective of these reforms are to target Japan, that why shortly after the devaluation of Yuan in 1992-1994 Japan can't resist the temptation of cheap labor and invested heavyly into China. Secondly in the 1997-98 Asia economic crisis, China had been able to resist the call of devaluated their currency and won the respect of Southeast Asia nations. Thirdly, both 911 and this economy meltdown had giving China excuses to do nothing, of course China did allowed a 20% gain in Yuan which should be applauded. Back to your question, why China didn't float their currency yet, my short answer would be they are not ready.

Now could I ask you a question? How much should the Yuan revaluated in order to justify the true value? Before the 20% gained in value, I had heard the called for 40% gain. Of course now a day many politicians are calling for another 50%, I guess as long as China could act as a scapegoat the number could always move upward. Personally, I am in favor of another 20% percent increase in the value of Yuan curreny in the next few years, however, I don't think it is wise for Americans to look for victim for their own internal problem that is the endless thirst for goods and wasteful spending habits.




For the sort term, there may have to be some sort of national debt forgiveness. The financial industry is still tied down with too much bad debt. Business cannot expand absent loans, and loans are not being made right now. Had it been my call a year ago I would have put $100,000 into every mortgage in the nation. I would not give the money to the banks or to the homeowners, but put it only into each mortgage. With no mortgage default crisis to worry about, the whole credit and banking default crisis would have been nipped in the bud. Now it is too late to save mortgages, but there are still something like $6 trillion in bad credit card debt outstanding and a second wave or mortgage defaults looming from people who lost their jobs.
Are you advocating for command economy? A direct interference into the market by government would be something a socialism or communism economy would do. I really doubt the US government would go this far, as it contradicts to what some of your previous suggestions or America capitalism economy.
I have to add that I think China's economic growth numbers are false. Container volume in the ports of LA and Long Beach are off 17% and 24% respectively. These twin ports are China's traditional land bridge to the US and Europe. There is no way China is growing at the rate claimed.

Sir, the world bank and IMF would disagree, because there are a lot of economics data China could not manipulate easily. The production of steel, auto, electricity, shipbuiding, trades, and cement etc.., these are the hardcore informations that economists are relying for their assertion of the truth state of China's economic growth. These data might not be perfect, but much more reliable and untainted. I would strongly argue that even though China GDP numbers aren't the most trustworthy but at the very least are closer to the truth than you are proclaimed here.
 
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tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Moving to the correct forum.

Who is Mr. Bernake (Mr. Berake)? Did you mean Mr. Barack --- Barack Obama?
You seriously have never heard of Bernanke before this? I guess that's why the Audit the Fed Bill really should pass.

How to stop recessions ? One idea may be to become like N Korea. :)
Seriously, once you've 'opened up' recessions are unavoidable, it's part of the cycle. What a country should do is not so much different from sound advices to individuals like
1) don't overspend/gamble, try to prevent bubbles as much as possible. Try to reduce wasteful spending like maybe start just one war instead of two, or better still, no war at all :)
Reducing the size of any bubbles will also reduce to pain/length of any recessions.
If your 'high' standard of living is based largely on credit, it's only artificial anyway.

2) save during good times so you can spend/invest during bad times, some of the best deals can be found during bad times. Try not to waste time with 'wizards' who come up with excuses like too much savings is the major problem. It's not 100% good but most of the time it's a good 'problem' to have.
3) direct funds to good stuffs that actually benefits the people like education, businesses, environments instead of CEO's bonuses or military contractors. Government and the people should run the countries, not the CEOs.

4) and this may cause some blood pressures to rise, so I'll be subtle. :) Learn from the economies, like the one whose name starts with C over the eastern border of Borat's country, who are coping well now especially how they implement the above points etc. Don't stick your head in the sand insisting the world is flat because you dislike seeing it's round or try still to argue it's flat. It's pathetic behavior for any adults let alone policy makers.

Bernanke's role is only on the monetary side which might be helpful in inflating away some debts but it is ultimately only plugging holes created by fiscal policies.
surprisingly, this was actually pretty good, Schumacher. I'm impressed.

Interesting topic. My degrees, BA before my active duty and MA more recently, are both in Economics with particular interests in international trade and finance and development economics.
I can see one very important thing the US in particular must do in the near future, but not this year or next. The US must run budget surpluses for a decade or more to pay down it's national debt. Deficit spending is driving what I call the dual deficits, the budget deficit and the trade deficit. The US spends more than it takes in from taxes, and finances this with Treasury Bills. In a textbook world there is a practical limit to how much of such debt financing a nation may do, as this tends to drive up interest rates and make such borrowing increasingly expensive. The US has short circuited this normal mechanism.
Most Asian nations are growing their economies by developing export oriented industries. They grow their economies by selling stuff to developed nations, in particular the USA. They traditionally run a trade surplus against the US, and the US runs trade deficits year after year. Again, in a textbook world, this should be self correcting. The US buys more abroad than it sells, so dollars should pile up in surplus, lower their value in trade as with any commodity in surplus. This would make US exports a comparative bargain while driving up the cost of foreign imports. However, Japan, China and others cannot afford to loose market share in the US to a rising dollar. Their economic growth would be badly affected. What to do? Well, trade surplus US dollars for all those T-Bills the US Treasury is furiously hawking to all and sundry.
This sordid little trade has gone on for decades, back into the Reagan administration at least. It works for everyone, well almost, but I'll get to that. Asian exporters maintain their favorable terms of trade and grow their economies seemingly without limit. The US government is allowed to spend freely with no constraining financial discipline. The US consumer, ever afraid of that boogyman called inflation ( we never forget the Nixon era stagflation ) get and endless supply of cheap Japanese and now Chinese consumer goods. The CPI is low, Congressmen take home the pork to their districts and Asian Inc, marches forward with development. What's not to like?
Well, this process effectively inflated the Japanese economy until the twin bubbles of their stock and real estate markets both burst. You have to know Chinese leaders see what happened to Japan and suck air between their teeth with every new purchase of US T-Bills. The globe is flooded with US debt, and like any commodity in surplus, it will fall in value. This is a congressmans, and Ben Bernake's worst nightmare. Fisical discipline. Oh the horror! Only the current upheaval bought the US a little, and I do mean a very little time. Right now, for the very immediate future, US debt still looks pretty safe to investors. As other, less leveraged economies recover this picture will change, and rapidly.
My WiFi spot is about to close, so I will finish this half done. In short the US must cut it's foreign debt substantially. But how, when so much value has been lost in the US and the US consumer will no longer be buying for maybe my lifetime. The days of the free spending US consumer are over for a very long time. What now? To be continued.

hmm, I think there is an end to every ERA of fiat currency. This current era of fiat currency after the end of Bretton Woods has lasted basically almost 40 years now and it will end soon. As shown throughout history, any time you have paper currency, gov't can't help themselves but to not have any fiscal restraint and overspend until their currency inflate to the point that they have to peg to gold standard again. Of course, the present administration thinks it's fine to spend $3 for every $2 they take in, which follows the practice of that other socialist President who masqueraded as a "Conservative".

The current Fed's policy is to print as much money as they want as long as CPI is low. Well, what they don't tell you is that CPI is a lagging indicator. It's caused by a massive expansion of monetary base, which when combined with greater velocity of money causes a lot of inflation. So, when money start flowing again (or when they keep on printing money like they have been doing), we will see a whole lot of inflation. Now, let's look at the feasibility of reducing this debt:

Interest on the debts is already the 3rd largest gov't expenditure behind wealth transfer and the military (despite the fact that short end interest rate is kept artificially low), even cutting down spending in all the programs will have its limits. If there is a rise in short term interest, the national debt will spiral up even faster than it is doing now. Consider this, the short term treasury bonds (< 2 years in maturity) represent the largest portion of the debt, so any rise in interest rate to combat inflation will kill the economy and the debt payments. Social security was actually bringing in more money than taking out until this year. When, the gov't will actually have to send money to social security to make the payments. Prior to this, the gov't was taking in tax revenue + surpluses from social security. It's kind of convenient that we don't hear more about this on the news. And then, consider all the liabilities coming up which actually total more than the collective assets of the entire country, things look pretty bleak. So, there is no way to go other than printing money -> deflating currency. For rest of us, it's all about finding a way to protect our savings from the devalued dollar.

I also recommend re-writing US tax laws, which currently favor financial investment over industrial investment. Money flows to that which will turn the greatest profit, and US tax laws strongly favor investment income over industrial income.
I like this one. Favour manufacturing sector in corporate tax laws over financial institution. I mean how it is fair for Goldmans sachs to pay like $14 million in taxes for all of last year? These bankers are all criminals. They've been ripping the nation off so bad for so long.

I have to add that I think China's economic growth numbers are false. Container volume in the ports of LA and Long Beach are off 17% and 24% respectively. These twin ports are China's traditional land bridge to the US and Europe. There is no way China is growing at the rate claimed.
you should take a look at the data. There is a huge decrease this year in trade surplus from last year, but that is overcome by much greater infrastructure spending and consumer spending. There is 2 things you should look at: PMI and electricity generation. In the former, the CLSA PMI has seen many month of continuous expansion. This one is not taken by the gov't, so you can't really say it's forged by the Chinese statisticians. The gov't PMI shows similar expansion data. After some periods of falling off, electricity generation is also coming up. When you couple this with greater efficiency in energy usage, this shows a real expansion in industrial activity. There are other factors that shows a huge recovery like the growth in car sales (for example, I think BYD's sales is up 150% this year) and appliances sales. A lot of this is caused by gov't policies favouring purchases like through rebates and such. The other indication of recovery is the hiring frenzy you are seeing in the major industrial provinces again. I don't think the migrant worker employment is back to pre-Aug 2008 level, but I'm reading a ton of stories about businesses not being able to find anyone to hire. Now, how long this can be sustainable is the question. They will reach a point when infrastructure projects slow down. They are already reaching an overcapacity in some sectors. The credit is too loose right now, they are having asset bubbles again. But then again, no one ever said a recovery will be all rosy.
The dollar must fall in value, it has been maintained artificially high for decades. Let currencies float and you will find US firms are as competitive as any.
it's more than just that, US needs to develop a policy that encourages savings/production over buying. When you have a negative saving rate and other countries have a 30%+ saving rate, it shouldn't be too surprising that you have a trading deficit. And then, there are the excessive regulation, the need for more quality education (how many % of people actually go to college for an education they really need?) and more competitive corporate environment (like lower corporate tax or sales tax).
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
The dollar must fall in value, it has been maintained artificially high for decades. Let currencies float and you will find US firms are as competitive as any.
I also recommend re-writing US tax laws, which currently favor financial investment over industrial investment. Money flows to that which will turn the greatest profit, and US tax laws strongly favor investment income over industrial income.
For the sort term, there may have to be some sort of national debt forgiveness. The financial industry is still tied down with too much bad debt. Business cannot expand absent loans, and loans are not being made right now. Had it been my call a year ago I would have put $100,000 into every mortgage in the nation. I would not give the money to the banks or to the homeowners, but put it only into each mortgage. With no mortgage default crisis to worry about, the whole credit and banking default crisis would have been nipped in the bud. Now it is too late to save mortgages, but there are still something like $6 trillion in bad credit card debt outstanding and a second wave or mortgage defaults looming from people who lost their jobs. Add to this the fact that a large proportion of the US workforce has taken a permanent, long term cut in pay, and there will not soon be an economic recovery. The optimists are all full of hooey. This will be at least a decade of pain and low to no growth.
I have to add that I think China's economic growth numbers are false. Container volume in the ports of LA and Long Beach are off 17% and 24% respectively. These twin ports are China's traditional land bridge to the US and Europe. There is no way China is growing at the rate claimed.

the US cannot justify effective provision against China when its very own currency is also being manipulated. furthermore, trade restrictions between large states have always ended in disaster, from napoleon to hoover, there is nothing the US can do to get the RMB up to the level it thinks is correct. its a bilateral issue not everything is gonna go the american way nowadays. on the other hand, China cannot afford inaction on this issue either, but of course their decision making process does not involve mr bernanke.
i would advice against throwing more money into the financial system. first of all it is already politically unacceptable, obama already said no more bailouts. you can argue what is or isnt a bailout, but the congress doesnt care. besides, Japan already tried this it didnt work for them, and they actually had a crap load of savings to begin with, the US is hopelessly in debt. second of all, what the US is now missing is savings, the only way you get savings is by not spending and produce more at the same time. the result is that you get a long period of low growth. the cut in pay might suck but in the long term it is a good thing, it means that US firms are fighting for productivity, there will be a lot of hardship in the process but its better than going bankrupt.
as for China's growth, the numbers are all from IMF and world bank so its quite real. even the government numbers you see on the news are considerably lower than the sum of what each provincial governments reported. that result is also in line with the prediction of 90% of the experts in the world, that is China (Asia) will bounce back before anyone else does.
 
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