Indian Economics Thread II

Status
Not open for further replies.

donjasjit

New Member
Registered Member
India doesn't have a stable demographic future. There's a reason the the 2021 Indian census has been delayed to 2024, after the next election.

Even according to optimistic numbers from the Indian government, TFR was 2 in 2021. If you look at the Indian population pyramid (WHO), you'll notice the cohort below 20 is shrinking at an accelerating rate, 2.7% for those between 10 and 20, but 4.4% for those under 10.

Put together it means India's TFR was likely to shrink at minimum 4% annually if COVID never happened. This matches up with India's number prior to 2014. It was at -2% yoy and went as low as 3.2% in 2013. Then in 2014, the TFR numbers magically rose to only -1.2% per year from then until COVID. During the COVID years India's reported TFR rose again to -0.8% yoy. I repeat it rose during COVID. I wonder what happened in 2014? I think someone with a penchant for making up fake figures whose name starts with an M and ends with an I came into office.

A yoy decline in TFR of 3-4% means India will be where China currently is demographically in 9-12 years. And that's just from continuing previous trends.

Let's also talk about climate change. It's basically going to hit the countries in the tropics hardest (this is also why the West doesn't actually care about it). Of the tropical countries, India's likely to be the hardest hit. 60% of India's agriculture is dependent on the rain, i.e. the Indian Monsoon. Groundwater in India is already overstressed and climate change promises to disrupt the monsoon season making its timing and amount unpredictable. Climate data shows both drought and flooding increasing in India. Furthermore, the increased temperatures and weather variability will reduce rice/wheat yields in India. Indeed there's some suspicion this has already started to take place given the numbers from 2001-2013, again the numbers 2014 onwards being powered by pure Jai Hindinum. Not to mention what increased temperatures will do to worker productivity and health.

All of that will have a further impact on India's TFR. I'm not holding my breath on India's "stable demographic future". But you don't care about any of that, so let's just say it:

JAI HIND
Instead of trying to research something which is quite obviously out of your depths, I will make things a lot easier for you-
Indian population pyramid 2050
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China population pyramid 2023
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China population pyramid 2050
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

See how similar Indian population pyramid in 2050 is to Chinese population pyramid in 2023.

By the way, India’s GDP right now is slightly higher than what China’s GDP was in 2007.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member

Shams

New Member
Registered Member
Instead of trying to research something which is quite obviously out of your depths, I will make things a lot easier for you-
Indian population pyramid 2050
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China population pyramid 2023
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China population pyramid 2050
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

See how similar Indian population pyramid in 2050 is to Chinese population pyramid in 2023.

By the way, India’s GDP right now is slightly higher than what China’s GDP was in 2007.
Do not try to make argument on subjects you have no understanding of based on online articles , where most data are western sourced. Indians acting as middle man in this is quite irritating. China is homogenous unlike india. India is severely divided and it's economic output is region based. India's most advanced economic and technology zones are rapidly aging, there is massive disparity in-between indian demographics. Next time you show data for some reason, you better show data that you collected, well researched instead of sourced data that indians claim to understand better than the researchers themselves. It is analogous to the case of rafale where indians do better advertisement of Rafale and have better understanding of Rafale than the French themselves.
 

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
Instead of trying to research something which is quite obviously out of your depths, I will make things a lot easier for you-
Indian population pyramid 2050
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China population pyramid 2023
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China population pyramid 2050
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

See how similar Indian population pyramid in 2050 is to Chinese population pyramid in 2023.

By the way, India’s GDP right now is slightly higher than what China’s GDP was in 2007.
Wow you're thick... or maybe illiterate?

I'll summarize what I wrote:
Modi-era TFR numbers are nonsense and the actual TFR is much lower.
The changing climate will disproportionately affect India and drag its TFR numbers even further down.

Is that simple enough for you to understand? You replied to me with "b-but my projections" when those projections are based on Modi's numbers and an unchanging climate.

By the way, population projections out to 2050 are pretty much nonsense. The only thing locked in for 2050 is the cohort above 50 because they're the group literally giving birth right now. Predicting the population sizes for cohorts that aren't even born yet while assuming a static world (no government or cultural interventions, no environmental changes) is laughable.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
The New York Times article clearly shows the difficulties a developing nation like India will face to rapidly advance it's economy. However, India has 2 advantages-
1 It has time. Decades and decades of time. Unlike East Asia, India has a stable demographic future.
Demographics is not destiny, in my opinion, but it does give you time to frame the right strategy to grow. India is not in a race to develop before it gets old.
Time? How much more time does India need?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
In 1990, meaning 33 years ago, India’s per person income was $367 and China’s was $317. That was the last time we were ahead of them.
The World Bank’s data shows that India’s per capita income in 1960 was $82, while China’s was $89. In 1970, we were almost even, with India at $112 and China at $113. In 1980, India was $266 and China considerably behind at $194.
Notice that China was slightly behind India around when both nations went into the phase that we call liberalisation. But liberalisation has not helped us replicate what they have done. China grew at 11.7% in the 1990s (versus our 5.6%), then 16.5% in the 2000s (against our 6.5%) and then 8.8% in the 2010s (versus our 5.1%).
India was ahead of China in GDP per capita in 1980 to 1990. Why did China grew rapidly since then but India didn't? India had plenty of time from 1947 to surge ahead of China. India had so many "advantages" over China since independence, namely:
1) Industries, companies, institutions, and infrastructure left behind by the British Raj.
2) A large pool of Western-educated professionals. Continued access to obtain education in the West.
3) Favourable geopolitical climate. India can count on both the West and the Soviets for assistance and praise. India had the privilege of calling for food aid when it suffered from famines. India had plenty of help from Western companies and individuals to help with its R&D. India always had access to generous capital and technologies from both the West and the Soviets. In the 1980s, the Western commentators predict that India, not China who will become the next Superpower. Yeah right!

India was technically ahead of China for quite a few decades in the Cold War. Why then is India the laggard today? Why is India's economy 1/5th the size of the Chinese economy today? India suffers no significant issues with the West and Russia. No one is throwing sanctions and trade restrictions at India, not even China! India has a sizable English-speaking population, hence India can communicate with the English-language world better. Apparently, everybody "loves" India today. India now has that super duper PM, 56-in chest Narendra Modi in charge. Why hasn't India blitzed China and take over the world? How many more decades does India need to become a Supapowa? Everyone is bored already, waiting for India to fulfil its destiny.

2 It has the support of the West. The West may not be as powerful as it was in the past but it will still be a powerful economic force and they desperately want India to challenge China.
Whether that strategy works or not, only the future will tell.
India had Western support for much of its history since 1947. Where has that gotten India today? I don't buy that myth that Western support alone can turn a nation into a superpower. Western support is useful, but its what you do with it that matters. Singapore and Malaysia had plenty of Western support. Singapore did well and became a first world country, but Malaysia f**ked it all up and remained a third world country. And Malaysia was the one that was touted to have the much greater potential. The Philippines had much more Western support than Vietnam. Even its economy was ahead of Vietnam's economy for some time. But today, it is behind Vietnam's economy by some distance.

Western support is only as good as you can use it. Use it well, and you can grow into an economic powerhouse. Squander it, and you'll remain a poor nation with time running out. India had squandered all that generous Western (and Soviet) support that it has received over the decades. India is getting a vanishingly slim second chance today, but it is already squandering it. Gangster economic policies, brain drain, no coherent development plan, religion over science, Jai Hind mentality, arrogance, complacency, venal mentality, sexual depravity, immaturity, more talking than working. I can go on and on. The way India is going today, all that Western support is not gonna work. The mindset of the Indian elites and their supporters today is totally unsuitable for nation building.
 

donjasjit

New Member
Registered Member
Wow you're thick... or maybe illiterate?

I'll summarize what I wrote:
Modi-era TFR numbers are nonsense and the actual TFR is much lower.
The changing climate will disproportionately affect India and drag its TFR numbers even further down.

Is that simple enough for you to understand? You replied to me with "b-but my projections" when those projections are based on Modi's numbers and an unchanging climate.

By the way, population projections out to 2050 are pretty much nonsense. The only thing locked in for 2050 is the cohort above 50 because they're the group literally giving birth right now. Predicting the population sizes for cohorts that aren't even born yet while assuming a static world (no government or cultural interventions, no environmental changes) is laughable.
You may be living in a firewall separated country but India is a free country. The fudging of numbers you wrote about might be common in a totalitarian society but not in a country where the press, both domestic and foreign pounce on the slightest whiff of such things.

Is that simple enough for you to understand?
 

donjasjit

New Member
Registered Member
Time? How much more time does India need?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



India was ahead of China in GDP per capita in 1980 to 1990. Why did China grew rapidly since then but India didn't? India had plenty of time from 1947 to surge ahead of China. India had so many "advantages" over China since independence, namely:
1) Industries, companies, institutions, and infrastructure left behind by the British Raj.
2) A large pool of Western-educated professionals. Continued access to obtain education in the West.
3) Favourable geopolitical climate. India can count on both the West and the Soviets for assistance and praise. India had the privilege of calling for food aid when it suffered from famines. India had plenty of help from Western companies and individuals to help with its R&D. India always had access to generous capital and technologies from both the West and the Soviets. In the 1980s, the Western commentators predict that India, not China who will become the next Superpower. Yeah right!

India was technically ahead of China for quite a few decades in the Cold War. Why then is India the laggard today? Why is India's economy 1/5th the size of the Chinese economy today? India suffers no significant issues with the West and Russia. No one is throwing sanctions and trade restrictions at India, not even China! India has a sizable English-speaking population, hence India can communicate with the English-language world better. Apparently, everybody "loves" India today. India now has that super duper PM, 56-in chest Narendra Modi in charge. Why hasn't India blitzed China and take over the world? How many more decades does India need to become a Supapowa? Everyone is bored already, waiting for India to fulfil its destiny.


India had Western support for much of its history since 1947. Where has that gotten India today? I don't buy that myth that Western support alone can turn a nation into a superpower. Western support is useful, but its what you do with it that matters. Singapore and Malaysia had plenty of Western support. Singapore did well and became a first world country, but Malaysia f**ked it all up and remained a third world country. And Malaysia was the one that was touted to have the much greater potential. The Philippines had much more Western support than Vietnam. Even its economy was ahead of Vietnam's economy for some time. But today, it is behind Vietnam's economy by some distance.

Western support is only as good as you can use it. Use it well, and you can grow into an economic powerhouse. Squander it, and you'll remain a poor nation with time running out. India had squandered all that generous Western (and Soviet) support that it has received over the decades. India is getting a vanishingly slim second chance today, but it is already squandering it. Gangster economic policies, brain drain, no coherent development plan, religion over science, Jai Hind mentality, arrogance, complacency, venal mentality, sexual depravity, immaturity, more talking than working. I can go on and on. The way India is going today, all that Western support is not gonna work. The mindset of the Indian elites and their supporters today is totally unsuitable for nation building.
For all your long winded article how about some facts-

India’s GDP right now is about the same as China’s GDP A decade and a half ago.

India has much better demographics. IMF predicts India will grow much faster than any other major economy for the next several years. Every single year from now on India is going to cut down on China’s lead of 16 years.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top