future relationship between indian and china (in CHINESE)

Red Guard

Junior Member
本年度中国外交最大的意外之喜,就是中印两个发展中大国的关系忽然间有了一个突破性的发展。先是两国海军进行了共同演习,曾经被吹得神乎其神的印度海军来到了中国上海。之后是印度总理瓦杰帕依公开向外界表示,愿意与中国在中印边界问题上谈判,甚至:“作出重大让步而在所不惜”。虽然只是个表态,但以曾经力主对中国保持强硬态度的印度人民党来说,已经是难能可贵了。
中印战后,给印度留下了一个比以前简直差一万倍的地缘环境。此战后,中国援助巴基斯坦与印度敌对,印度倾全国之力也没能把背后站立着巨人的巴基斯坦重新合⒌接《?br>次大陆内。在与中国长期的怒目相视中,印度更是没有占住任何便宜,反而给本就不宽裕的国力增加了一个永远无法取胜的对手,其中苦楚,只有印度自己最为清楚。而中国因中印关系的交恶,不得不在自己的西南设置重兵,牵扯了相当大的精力和财力,更带来了严重的西藏问题,在国际上相当被动。两国交恶,没有真正的胜利者。

如果没有当年的中印边界战争,没有两国的交恶,以印度优越的地缘政治环境,它的势力就可以轻易地并吞巴基斯坦,直至中东,饮马阿拉伯海,控制全世界的石油战略命脉,那么印度的大国梦想将可以轻易实现,而不用象中国在崛起之初那样要在朝鲜战争等战事中付出巨大的牺牲。也许现在美国要“遏制”的对象就是印度而非中国,也许现在被拉拢的就是中国而非印度。然而历史没有也许,印度为了当年的战略失误已经付出了足够的代价,它的有识之士早就想改正当年的错误,找回一个稳定的中印关系,友好的中印关系,于印度有百利无一害,印度现在主动向中国示好的举措,是在弥补当年的错误,是经过深思熟虑的外交举措,决不是突然间地心血来潮。

印度与中国对抗中的地缘劣势:

这是由中印边界的现状决定的。

当年印度在中印边界战争中惨败后,虽然中国撤回了传统习惯线,让印度在领土方面占了个大便宜,但具有战略意义的制高点全部在中国军队占领之下,这些海拔均高达五千米以上的制高点,令印军高山仰止,无可奈何。山地地形复杂,地貌多变,后勤补给困难,山地作战一般比普通的战斗所需时间多至少一倍,向来是兵家难题,只有最果敢的将领,最具进攻精神的部队,而且要有经过高强度的训练的精兵才能在山地战中占上风,而高原作战更是难上加难,各种困难成倍于普通的山地作战。从战术的角度看,中印边界线上尤其是东线,简直是魔鬼才能创造出来的战场。1999年几十个巴基斯坦游击队员占领了印巴之间有争议的锡亚琴冰川上的一座近六千米高的山头,印军费尽九牛二虎之力,什么幻影2000,苏27战机,FH77榴弹炮诸般先进武器都用上了,在后勤保障占优势的情况下付出极其惨重的伤亡才拿下山头。可以想见在战场环境更加恶劣的中印边界线上,面对寸土必争且又以顽强着称的中国军队,实力对比并不太占优地印军又能有多大作为。

这只是战术上的劣势,如果有果敢的指挥员,有优秀的部队,有充分的后勤保障,高山并不是不能够克服的障碍。但有一个劣势印度永远也无法弥补,那就是中国西藏与印度核心地区之间的距离,打开随便一张地图,用一支普通的尺子量取中印边界线到新德里的距离,是约四百公里,而到北京的距离,是四千公里,约在十倍左右。这意味着什么?意味着印度在与中国的冲突中,它的导弹武器打到中国的腹心地区,是中国的同类武器打到印度腹心地区的距离的十倍,中国只要在西藏部署一枚射程仅四百公里的战术导弹,印度要想抗衡,就必须部署一枚射程达四千公里以上的导弹,这已经是价格高昂的战略级武器了。中国的战术武器对印度来说就是战略武器,仅此一项不平衡的对比,就可以轻易抵消印度在导弹武器项目上的十年艰辛。所以印度对中国在西藏部署的几百枚战术导弹一直如刺在喉,愤愤不已。而号称强大的印度空军要想空袭中国的战略目标,除非空中加油或者是使用战略轰炸机,更何况中国还有着世界级的防空网,印度空军的战机很难突破。而中国空军要想打击印度目标,战机在西藏起飞后一个俯冲就能到达新德里上空!中国设在西藏的空颜喀拉巨型雷达站,可以俯瞰纵深并不深远的印度全境,与其说是地面雷达,不如说是不上天的超级预警飞机,印度一切举动皆在中方掌握之中,未战即已完全失去了主动权。也就是说,西藏于印度,尤如如来佛祖将孙悟空压在五行山下的六字真言,中国在西藏的远程威慑力量尤如一根铁链,牢牢地锁住了南亚猛虎的咽喉,使其不敢有任何异动。

对印度来说,中国占据了西藏,就占据了兵家必争的制高点,等于是紧紧扼住了南亚猛虎的咽喉。虽然印度在中印边界部署了将近三分之一的军事力量,将最精锐的机械化部队和十个山地步兵师中的九个部署在这一地区,与中国对阵,号称占据了“绝对军事优势”,而且在目前的军力对比下,它的确有能力在边境线上占上风,甚至将中国边防军队赶走。但这种军事优势是纸糊的优势,印军即使凭借部队的数质量优势在战事初起时占些便宜,但中国的边防军只要能坚持一个半月,世界第一的中国陆军就可以源源不断的开上高原,印度的所谓军事优势将化为泡影,而谁都不会怀疑中国军队有能力在国境线上坚守一个半月。更危险的是,如果印军攻得太急,中国军队部署在西藏的战术导弹和战术空军情急之下,有能力将印度的中心城市打成一片火海,这对印度来说就是灭顶之灾了。印度在中印边境部署了大军,却尤如一群披坚执锐的武士,看似威风,却暴露于坚城之下,无遮无拦,想攻,城上箭如雨下,攻不上去,想守守不踏实,随时都有可能被从城上射下的箭雨射成刺猬。以中印边界线的战场环境,根本展不开印度面向中国的大军,它部署在中印边界上的大军实际上功能只有一个,那就是紧紧守住侵占的中国领土,防止中国军队从西藏冲下来“收复失地”。中印边界的态势,在军事上可以画出这样一幅漫画,一边是披坚执锐的印度骑士威风凛凛的立在印度无遮无拦的大平原上,一边却是手执现代化狙击步枪的中国枪手稳稳的藏身于青藏高原的重重遮蔽中,胜负就是毫无军事常识的人也可想而知。

也正因为感受到中国的不平等威慑,印度敢于冒天下之大不韪发展了核武器,以弥补对中国的先天性的劣势,但抗衡了中国的同时,又带来了一个更大的问题,那就是巴基斯坦应声而起也发展了核武器,使印度的周边安全环境不仅没有得到改善,反倒事与愿违的更加恶劣了。

对中国来说,只要西藏还是中国的领土,就等于站在了亚洲乃至世界的巅峰。西藏在中国的地缘政治环境中的地位,是性命攸关的制高点,如果没有西藏,就没有稳定的大西南,西北也将糜烂,中国就不可能有稳定的大后方,就根本不会有当年的大三线工程,也谈不上现在的西部大开发战略,中国的地缘政治环境将比现在糟糕十倍。当年毛泽东周恩来等老一辈革命家经略西藏,给后世中国人带来的益处怎么评价也不为过。同时西藏还蕴藏着丰富的资源,尤其是水资源,在设想中的南水北调工程中,最重要一段就是将雅鲁藏布江引流到长江源头,这不可避免会使印度感到愤怒,但作为优势一方,中国很可能对印度的抗议置之不理。自古弱国无外交,作为边界战争中的失败者和力量的劣势一方,印度对中国没有太多的发言权,使得中国可以毫不顾忌印度的鼓噪,专心经营西藏。在陆地上,中国远比在海上强硬。

中印两国之间在军事对抗和国家安全方面是不平等的,拥有了西藏的主权,中国即使在边境战事中暂时失利,也无关大局。而印度在与中国的军事对抗中,一个不好,就是灭国之祸。印度并非不想顺应美国的对华围堵政策,对中国在战场上战而胜之,以报1962年,并主动交还俘虏和缴获的武器,有争议的领土大部分在印度手中,哪有这样被侵略的?印度梦想成为世界大国,但一个堂堂的世界大国被另一个大国轻松“侵略”,天天哭哭啼啼声言被欺负了,能叫大国吗?等到印度真正成为大国,它就不会老是叫喊被中国侵略了,这对国家的威信损害太大了。

1962年印军兵败西藏后,一直心有所不甘,咬牙切齿地要洗雪前耻。上世纪80年代未,90年代初,印军曾向中国公开叫板,口口声声要与当年将印军打得落花流水的主力,“中国的第54军”较量较量,当时边界形势已经相当紧张,只是因为中国在边界的严阵以待和国际形势的突变,印度在中印边界线上的所谓“军事优势”已成过去。失去了前苏联这个大靠山,印度气势为之一衰。军事上又没有什么太大的把握,最后复仇大计不了了之。前苏联的垮台,使中国人民解放军能够转过头来应付其它的安全问题。在边界居于劣势的印度不得不接受一个事实,那就是必须学会与强大的中国和平共处,回复到上世纪50年代的和平政策上来。所以印度实际上一直急于与中国修好,尤其是在中国飞速发展,军事实力不断增强的背景下,印方更急于将于自己极为有利的边境线固定下来,防止中国更加强大后收复失地。而美国对印度的笼络,被印度作为一个重要谈判砝码与中国讨价还价。印度领导人也正是把握了这个最好的时机,才顶着国内的压力,主动向中国示好,积极争取与中国在边界问题上进行谈判。虽然目前谈判对中国未必有利,但实现中印之间的友好,保证稳固的西南大后方,从根本上解决西藏问题,是几代中国领导人一直以来的愿望,中国还是会热情回应印度的示好的,甚至在边界问题上作一些让步。不得不承认,目前的印度领导人非常明智,远比尼赫鲁时代更加务实。

虽然有识之士都希望中印两个发展中大国实现友好,但两国之间实现关系正常化存在着巨大的障碍。于印度一方来说,在边界问题上的哪怕一小点让步,都会被整个印度社会指为卖国,瓦杰帕依政府向中国示好的举动是顶着相当大的压力的,国内仇华反华的声浪使印度领导人在边界问题上没有什么回旋余地。外界目前对实现边界和平有一个设想,那就是中国承认印度对有争议地区九万平方公里土地的所有权,印度承认中国对阿克赛钦地区的所有权,但即使是这样有利的交换,也很难被印度国民接受。经过数十年的反华宣传,印度国民对中国存在的仇视心理不是一天两天能抹平的。印度社会精英对中国的“瑜亮情结”也不容忽视,那就是一方面通过强调中国的威胁来凝聚印度国民的民族意识,另一方面对??”。印度知识界“精英”天天坐在电视论述节目上夸夸其谈:“印度是民主国家,中国是***社会,印度的发展是能够持久的,而中国的发展是不平衡的,印度强大,武器先进,中国国内问题多多……。”一味迎合普通民众的心理,讲民众想听的话,谁要是敢于说印度对中国居于劣势,必定遭到群起而攻之。以这种心态同一个足以毁灭自己的强国打交道,正所谓不知已又不知彼。一旦事态有变,中印之间能否维持目前的“和平对峙”状态都成问题。正因为印度社会对中国问题的掩耳盗铃的态度,使得两国之间不仅和平很困难,相反还存在着相当严重的足以造成战争的心理隔阂。也因为这一点,中印边界成了中国周边最有可能发生战事的边界,可能性甚至大于台湾海峡!

印度方面对中国的不现实看法,很有可能使印度再一次重蹈上次战争失败的覆辙——-在有超级大国支持,自认为“时机有利”的前提下主动向中国挑衅。而中印边界印度方面的先天劣势,是单靠空谈无法弥补的,如果未来真的如美国所愿发生了中印军事冲突,印度的胜面并不象它自己认为的那样乐观,甚至有亡国的危险。印度这个民族是我们无法理解的,它作为单个国民,是很优秀的,不论是头脑的智慧还是个人品质的善良,都值得一交,但一旦作为一个整体出现在世界舞台上,却是那么的不可理喻。在两国对彼此的认识都有偏颇的前提下,对中印实现友好相处,很难保持乐观,即使关系有些改善,也绝不会回到上世纪50年代的蜜月期。两国之间不可能会回到蜜月年代那样蝴蝶双飞,翩翩共舞,倒很有可能是彼此充满戒心在以实力为后盾的前提下,虚伪的与蛇共舞,也许这样更符合中印关系的实质。

同时也很难设想中国方面能接受印度提出的边境土地交换协定,尤其是在占据战略优势的前提下。中国国内的民族意识已经相当强烈,民间的声音日益受到领导人的重视,政府即使想在边界上作一些让步,以换来友好的中印关系,也需要考虑民间的反对声浪。所以能作出的回应也多半只会是口头上的,不会给印度领导人太多的实惠。

印度人民党政府主动向中国示好,第一是希望在中美对抗的背景下以主动示好换得中国政府的巨大让步,在边境问题上不吃亏反占便宜,从而可以向国民交差。第二是取得中印关系的改善,解除中国在西藏对印度的巨大军事威胁,改善自身的地缘政治环境,并进而实现强国目标。中国政府也并非不想有友好的中印关系,但第一在边境问题上并没有太大的让步余地,拿不出多少东西满足印度巨大的胃口。第二是中国想除掉寄身于印度的西藏流亡“政府”,以解决棘手的西藏问题,但印度不可能将自己手中唯一的筹码恭手交出。双方的愿望南辕北辙。中印两国都有实现和平改善关系的愿望,但谈判底线相距太远,恐怕美好的愿望最后还是要落空。

中印两国能否未达成谅解,解除双方之间的隔阂,并实现边界的友好?未来两国之间能否实现完全和解?并不令人乐观。任何美好的政治意愿都是如此,设想极好,一遇到残酷的现实,就彻底让位于利益考虑,要不然也就不会发生战争了。

于中国民间而言,应该停止对印度这个大国的讽刺揶揄,从更理性的角度来与这个大国打交道。大国不可轻视,更不可轻辱,虽然印度领导人以前在处理中印关系时有过不明智的举动,但毕竟事情早已过去多年,还保持那种胜利者的心态是浮躁的,也是不明智的。中国的老百姓应该对印度持友好的态度,支持政府与印度实现关系正常化而非说三道四。认真了解它的国情和灿烂的文化,增进彼此间的感情而非仇视,相信精诚所至,金石为开,中印之间必将实现友好相处,这只是时间问题。

对决策者而言,首先是要看清超级大国的险恶用心,印度的强大是必然的,与中国的强大一样没有任何人能压制地住,水可疏而不可堵,中国没有必要充当美国压制印度的磐石。与印度这样的大国交恶,只能是压制了别人也遏制了自己。中国应该支持印度成为联合国安理会的常任理事国,支持印度在世界上有更大的发言权,鼓励印度参与国际事务,在全球事务中与印度更多合作而非对抗,并在海洋事务上与印度展开合作,与未来的海军大国印度搞好关系,保证 通畅的海洋交通线。但更重要的是必须记住,中印两国的友好,必须建立在有效的威慑的基础上。必须保持并增强对印方的战略威胁能力,打消印度对中国的领土野心,西藏的主权决不容任何人说三道四。要冷静对待不友好的声音,同时对和平的表示予以积极回应,但不抱持太大的期望。

想要在南亚与虎共舞,最要紧的是紧紧抓住卡住老虎咽喉的缰绳。这种实力外交的政策,将是今后中印关系的主流。


very interesting article. too bad it's only in chinese.
 

modest188

Just Hatched
Registered Member
how many people can read this text or understand the meaning?By translation software?
Sorry,Iam not good at English
^-^!
 

Dizasta76

Banned Idiot
modest188 said:
how many people can read this text or understand the meaning?By translation software?
Sorry,Iam not good at English
^-^!

Dude i'm really sorry, but i neither can read Chinese (i wish i could), nor do i have a translator software at hand to do the job. If anyone could please convert the article to english, i'd be grateful! Thanks in advance!

Dizasta
 

coolieno99

Junior Member
you might tried babelfish translator:

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The this year China diplomacy biggest accident is happy, was in the China and India during two development the great nation relations suddenly had an unprecedented development. First was both countries navy has carried on the together exercise, once was blown the wonderful Indian navy to arrive the Chinese Shanghai. Is afterwards Indian premier the tile outstanding handkerchief according to publicizes indicated to the outside that, is willing to negotiate with China in the China and India boundary problem, even: "Makes the significant concessions to refuse to balk". Although only is takes a stand, but to once advocated strongly maintains the strong manner to China the Indian Popular Party to say, already was commendable. China and India postwar, has left behind to India compared to before simply misses 10,000 time of places reasons environment. This postwar, China aids Pakistan and India is hostile, India leans strength of the national not to be able to stand giant's Pakistan the behind reto gather 5. to meet "? In br subcontinent. In looks at each other with the Chinese long-term angry glare, India is has not occupied any small advantage, instead gave originally not the ample national strength to increase the match which forever was unable to win, distress, only had India to be clearest. But China because of the China and India relations 交恶, can not but establish the large army in own southwest, has involved the quite big energy and the financial resource, has brought the serious Tibet question, in on international is quite passive. Both countries 交恶, do not have the genuine victor. If did not have the same year the China and India boundary war, did not have both countries 交恶, by the Indian superior geopolitics environment, its influence was allowed easily to annex Pakistan, until the Middle East, watered a horse the Arabic sea, controlled the world the petroleum strategy life, then India's great nation vainly hoped for will be allowed easily to realize, but did not need to look like China at the beginning of rising such to have at war and so on in the Korean War to put in the huge sacrifice. Perhaps now US wants "the containment" the object is India but non- China, is won perhaps now over is China but non- India. However the history not perhaps, India already has paid the enough price for the same year strategic fault, its man of insight already wanted to correct the same year the mistake, retrieved stable China and India relations, the friendly China and India relations, has hundred advantages to India not to have an evil, India now on own initiative the action which showed good will to China, was is making up the same year the mistake, was the process careful consideration diplomatic action, was in no way suddenly is prompted by a sudden impulse. India and China resist the place reason inferiority: This is decides by the China and India boundary present situation. Same year India after China and India boundary war disastrous defeat, although China has withdrawn the traditional custom line, let India occupy in the territory aspect to be greatly cheap under, but had the strategic sense the commanding point completely to seize in the Chinese army, these elevations reached as high as five kilometer above commanding point, is admired greatly the Indian armed force mountain, has no alternative. Mountainous region terrain complex, landform changeable, rear service military supplies difficult, the mountainous region combat generally needs a time to be more than at least time the ordinary fight, is always the military commander difficult problem, only has the most courageous military officer, most has the attack spirit the army, moreover must have the process high strength training the crack troops to be able to be in the upper hand in the mountain warfare, but the plateau combat is very difficult, each kind of sleepy hard to bring about time to ordinary mountainous region combat. Looked from the tactical angle that, on the China and India boundary line the east line, simply is a battlefield in particular which the devil can create. In 1999 several dozens Pakistan guerrilla seized between India and Pakistan to have the dispute on tin Asia qin glacier nearly six kilometer high mountain tops, printed the military expenses completely tremendous strength, any illusory image 2,000, the Soviet 27 fighter planes, the FH77 artillery 诸般 advanced weapon all used, occupied the superiority in the logistics support in the situation to pay the extremely serious casualties only then to take the mountain top. May infer in the battlefield environment worse China and India boundary line, also also take is tenacious facing the fight for each bit of land the Chinese army which called, the strength contrast certainly not too is occupying superiorly Indian armed force to be able to have the multi- writings as. This is only in the tactical inferiority, if has the courageous director, has the outstanding army, has the full logistics support, the mountain certainly is not the barrier which cannot overcome. But has an inferiority India forever also to be unable to make up, that is China's Tibet and between the India core area distance, turns on the casual map, takes the China and India boundary line with an ordinary ruler quantity to New Delhi's distance, is approximately 400 kilometers, but to Beijing's distance, is 4,000 kilometers, approximately about ten times. This meant what? Meant India in with in China's conflict, its missile armament projects on China 腹心 the area, is China's similar weapon projects on the Indian 腹心 area distance ten times, China so long as in Tibet deployed firing distance only 400 kilometers tactical guided missiles, India must want to contend with, must deploy a firing distance reaches 4,000 kilometer above the missile, this already was the price soaring strategy level weapon. China's tactical weapon to India said is the strategic weapon, only this not balanced contrast, may easily counterbalance India's in missile armament project ten year difficulty. Therefore India deployed to China in Tibet several hundred tactical guided missiles continuously like puncture in the throat, is not indignant already. But is known as the formidable Indian air force to have to want to raid Chinese the strategic target, only if air refueling or uses the strategic bomber, much less China also has the world-class the anti-aircraft network, the Indian air force's fighter plane is very difficult to break through. But the Chinese air force must want to attack the Indian goal, the fighter plane takes off latter in Tibet to dive can arrive the New Delhi sky! China is located in Tibet spatial Yan Kala the giant radar station, may the bird's eye view depth certainly not profound India entire boundary, if said is the ground-based radar, was inferior to in said is the super early-warning aircraft which does not ascend the sky, Indian all actions all in China grasp, has not fought namely has completely lost the initiative. In other words, Tibet to India, especially like the Tathagata Buddha presses Sun Wukong under five lines of mountains six characters true words, China in a Tibet's long-distance deterrent especially like shackle, firmly has locked in the South Asia brave fighter's pharynx and larynx, causes it not to dare to have any 异动. Said to India that, China occupied Tibet, occupied the commanding point which the military commander must struggle, was equal to has closely blocked the South Asia brave fighter's pharynx and larynx. Although India had deployed in the China and India boundary nearly 1/3 military force, in the sharpest mechanized force and ten mountainous regions infantry divisions' nine deployment in this area, will confront with China, is known as occupied "the absolute military superiority", moreover under the present military force contrast, it indeed has the ability to be in the upper hand on the border line, even the Chinese border defense army will expel. But this kind of military superiority is the superiority which the paper sticks, Indian armed force even if relies on the army the number quality superiority in the beginning of the war time takes an advantage, but China's frontier force so long as can persist a month and a half, the world first China army will be allowed continuously to open the plateau, India's so-called military superiority changes into the bubble, but everybody will not be able to suspect the Chinese army will have the ability to persevere a month and a half in the country boundary line. More dangerous is, if Indian armed force attacks too anxiously under, the China troop disposition is desperate in Tibet's tactical guided missile and the tactical air force, will have the ability India's key city to become integrated with the sea of fire, this to India said will be the total destruction. India had deployed in the China and India frontier the army, actually especially like a crowd wears armor and carry weapons the warrior, looked resembles the power and prestige, actually exposes under the firm city, not obstructs not blocks, wants to attack, in the city 箭如雨下, cannot attack, wants defends not steadfastly, as necessary all has the possibility the arrow rain which shoots from the city to shoot the hedgehog. By the China and India boundary line battlefield environment, cannot unfold India face China's armies, it deployed the army function only has in fact in the China and India boundary, that is the Chinese territory which closely defends invades, prevented the Chinese army flushes down from Tibet "regains loses". The China and India boundary situation, may draw this kind of cartoon in military, at the same time is Indian knight's powerful setting up which wears armor and carry weapons in the great plains which not obstructs in India not blocks, at the same time actually is the hand holds the modernization sniper's rifle Chinese ringer steady hiding to in the Qinghai-Tibet Plain layered camouflage, the victory and defeat is not in the least the military general knowledge person also it can be imagined. Also just because feels China not the equal deterrent, India dared to face universal condemnation has developed the nuclear weapon, made up to China's congenital inferiority, but has contended with China's at the same time, also has brought a major problem, that was Pakistan accordingly but also has developed the nuclear weapon, enable Indian the peripheral security environment not only not to be improved, on the contrary was contrary to what expects is worse. □ Said to China, so long as Tibet or China's territory, were equal to stood in Asian and even the world mountain peak. Tibet in China's geopolitics environment status, is the matter of life and death commanding point, if does not have Tibet, does not have stably big southwest, northwest also rotten to the core, China is impossible to have stably big rear area, simply could not have the same year the big three projects, also is far from present the western big development strategy, China's geopolitics environment present too bad than ten times. Same year older generation revolutionary and so on Mao Zedong Zhou Enlai after slightly Tibet, how the profit which the Chinese brought for the later generation appraises not for. Simultaneously Tibet also is containing the rich resources, the water resources, in the tentative plan northward rerouting of southern river project, the most important section is in particular the Yarlung Zangbo River drainage to the Yangtze River source, this is inevitable can make India to feel the anger, but took a superiority side, China very possibly ignores to India's protest. The weak country did not have the diplomacy since old times, took in boundary war the loser and a strength inferiority side, India to Chinese not too many rights to speak, caused China to be allowed not to have scruples Indian creating a clamor, wholly absorbed managed Tibet. On the land, China in marine is far stronger than. Between China and India in the military resistance and the national security aspect is not equal, had Tibet's sovereignty, China even if in frontier war temporary unfavorable situation, also irrelevant general situation. But India in with in China's military resistance, is not good, extinguishes calamity of the country. India does not want to comply with by no means US surrounds the policy to China, fights to the Chinese on the battlefield in wins it, by the newspaper in 1962, and returned the weapon on own initiative which the captive and seized, had the dispute majority of the territory in the Indian hand, where had is invaded like this? India vainly hoped for becomes the world great nation, but a solemn world great nation is been relaxed "the aggression" by another great nation, cried the declaration to bully daily, could call the great nation? When India truly becomes the great nation, it could not always yell by China to invade, this too was big to the national prestigious harm. After in 1962 the Indian armed force soldiers defeated Tibet, always the heart had unwillingly front, had to redress the shame with clenched jaws. On the century 80's, at the beginning of the 90's, Indian armed force once publicly has not spoken the last words of a spoken part rhythmically to China, keeps on proclaiming must the main force which Indian armed force will shatter to pieces with the same year, "China's 54th armed force" disputed, at that time the boundary situation already quite was intense, only will be because China in boundary being ready in full battle array with the international situation sudden change, India so-called "the military superiority" has become on the China and India boundary line. Lost former Soviet Union this big backers, the Indian imposing manner one has faded for it. In the military nothing too big assurance, finally takes revenge the important matter let it go at that. Former Soviet Union's collapse, enables the Chinese People's Liberation Army to turn the head to deal with other security problems. Occupies in the boundary to inferiority India can not but accept a fact, that is must learn and the formidable China peaceful coexistence, replies on the century 50's peace policies to come up. Therefore India continuously eagerly fixes in fact with China, rapidly develops in particular in China, the military power unceasingly strengthens under the background, will print the side eagerly fixedly to get down to the oneself extremely advantageous border line, after prevented China will be more formidable regains loses. But US to India's bossing around, by India was taken important negotiations weights and China bargain back and forth. The Indian leaders also have grasped this best opportunity, only then was going against the domestic pressure, showed good will on own initiative to China, positively strove for with China carries on the negotiations in the boundary problem. Although at present negotiates to China is not necessarily advantageous, but realizes between China and India's unfriendliness, guaranteed behind the stable west Southern University, fundamentally solves the Tibet problem, since has been several generation of Chinese leader continuously desire, China or can warmly respond, even in the boundary problem which India shows good will makes some concessions. Can not but acknowledge that, present Indian leader extremely unwise, is far more practical than the Nehru time. Although the men of insight all hoped in the China and India two development the great nation realization is friendly, but between both countries realizes the normalization of relation to have the giant barrier. Said to an Indian side, in boundary problem even if dot concessions, can by the entire Indian society refer for betrays country, the tile outstanding handkerchief the action which shows good will to China is going against the quite tremendous pressure according to the government, the domestic enmity China anti-Chinese voice causes the Indian leaders in the boundary problem no maneuver leeway. The outside at present to realizes the boundary peace to have a tentative plan, that is China acknowledged India to has the disputed area 90,000 square kilometers lands the property rights, India acknowledges China to 阿克 the match Qin area property rights, but even if is this advantageous exchange, also is very difficultly accepted by the Indian nationals. After dozens of years anti-Chinese propaganda, the Indian nationals exist to China are hostile toward the psychology are not one day two days can level. Indian society outstanding people to China "fine jade bright complex" also not allow to neglect, that is on the one hand through emphasized Chinese the threat condenses the Indian national's national consciousness, on the other hand is right? ? " . The Indian intellectual circle "the outstanding person" sits daily at the television elaboration program quart it discussed that, "India is the democratic country, China is the *** society, India's development is can lasting, but China's development is not balanced, India formidable, weapon advanced, the Chinese domestic question are much many... ... . " Caters to the ordinary populace's psychology constantly, delivers speech which the populace wants to listen, who if dares to say India occupies to China to the inferiority, surely encounters rally togethers to attack. Sufficiently destroys own by this kind of point of view identical powerful nation to have the social dealings, so-called did not know already does not know other. Once the situation has changes, whether between China and India maintains at present "peace to confront" the condition all to become the question. Just because the Indian society buries head in the sand to the Chinese question the manner, causes between both countries not only peace to be very difficult, on the contrary also exists quite seriously sufficiently creates the war the psychological barrier. Also because of this point, the China and India boundary peripheral became China most to have the possibility to have the war boundary, the possibility even is bigger than the Taiwan Straits! The Indian aspect to China's not realistic view, has the possibility to cause an Indian secondary load very much to step the inferior war defeat the road to disaster □□- in to have the superpower support again, confessed is "the opportunity is advantageous" under the premise to China provokes on own initiative. But the China and India boundary India aspect congenital inferiority, is only depends on the empty talk to be unable to make up, if the future really like US will be willing to have the China and India military conflict, India's victory surface certainly did not look like such which it thought to be optimistic, even had perishes country's danger. Indian this nationality is we is unable to understand, it took the single national, is very outstanding, no matter is the brains wisdom or individual archery target is good, all is worth a junction, but once took a whole appears in the world stage, actually is such impervious. All has under the biased premise in both countries to each other understanding, realizes to China and India in a friendly way is together, is very difficult to maintain optimistically, even if relates some improvements, also cannot return to on the century 50's honeymoon times. Between both countries is impossible to be able to return to the honeymoon age such butterfly dual flight, handsome altogether dances, pours very has the possibility is each other fills the vigilance in take the strength as under the backing premise, is false altogether dances with the snake, perhaps like this conforms to the China and India relations essence. Simultaneously very is also difficult to conceive the Chinese aspect to be able to accept the frontier land exchange agreement which India proposed, in occupies the strategic advantage in particular under the premise. The China domestic national consciousness already quite was intense, the folk sound was valued leader's day by day, the government even if wanted to make some concessions in the boundary, traded the friendly China and India relations, also needed to consider the folk the opposition voice. Therefore can make the response also mostly only can be oral on, cannot give India leader too many actual benefits. The Indian Popular Party government shows good will on own initiative to China, first is the hope under the background which resists in China and America to shows good will on own initiative trades is appropriate the country government's huge concessions, does not suffer a loss in the frontier question instead takes the advantage, thus may report on accomplishments to the national. Second is obtains the China and India relations the improvement, relieves China in Tibet to India's huge military threat, improves own geopolitics environment, and then achieves the powerful nation goal. The Chinese government also by no means does not want to have the friendly China and India relations, but first in the frontier question certainly the not too big concessions leeway, cannot put out how many things to satisfy the Indian huge appetite. Second is China wants to remove resides temporarily goes into exile "the government" to India's Tibet, solves the thorny Tibet problem, but India is impossible own hand in the only chip 恭 to personally hand over. The bilateral desire defeats the purpose. China and India all have the realization peace improvement relations the desire, but the negotiations agent is distanced too far, perhaps the happy desire finally or must fail. China and India haven't achieved whether forgiveness, relieves between the bilateral barrier, and realizes the boundary unfriendliness? Whether future between both countries will realize completely reconciles? Not is certainly optimistic. Any happy political wish all is so, conceives extremely good, as soon as meets the brutal reality, thoroughly yields to the benefit considered, otherwise also could not have the war. Says to the Chinese folk, should stop to the Indian this great nation satire ridiculing, comes from a more rational angle with this great nation to have the social dealings. The great nation cannot despise, may not the light shame, although Indian leaders before when deals with the China and India relations has had the wise action, but the matter already passes after all many years, but also maintains that kind of victor's point of view is impetuous, also is wise. China's common people should hold the friendly manner to India, supports the government and India realizes the normalization of relation but must to say this and that. Earnestly understood its national condition and the bright culture, promote each other the sentiment but must to be hostile toward, believed 精诚 to, the inscription on stone tablet and bronze for opens, between China and India will certainly to realize in a friendly way is together, this is only the time question. Speaking of the policy-maker, first is must see clearly the superpower dangerous intention, India is formidable is inevitable, can suppress with China's formidable same nobody lives, Shui Keshu but cannot stop up, China is not unnecessary to act as US to suppress Indian the rock. With the Indian such great nation 交恶, only could be suppresses the others also to contain own. China should support India to become United Nations Security Council the permanent member, supports India to have a bigger right to speak in the world, encourages India to participate in the international affairs, in the global business with Indian more cooperations but the non- resistance, and launches the cooperation at the maritime affair with India, will do well the relations with the future navy great nation India, will guarantee the unobstructed sea line of communication. But what is more important must remember that, China and India unfriendliness, must establish in the effective deterrent foundation. Must maintain and strengthen to the India side strategic threat ability, dispels India to China's territorial ambition, Tibet's sovereignty allows any person to say this and that in no way. Must calmly treat the unfriendly sound, simultaneously to peace expression positive response, but does not embrace the too big expectation. Wants altogether dances in the South Asia and the tiger, what is most important is closely holds catches the tiger pharynx and larynx the reins. This kind of strength diplomacy policy, will be the next China and India relations mainstream.
 
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