Future PLAN naval and carrier operations

Somewhere the thread is starting to lose track of its purpose. I would agree that China would never initiate any conflict in the Korean Peninsula, period.

vesicles said:

Yes, a CBG packs a whole lot of firepower, especially like the USN. However, the USN can pack even more powerful punches when it has access to land-based assets. Using landed-based systems is also more cost effective.

Similarly, it would be much more efficient for China to use its land-based assets when fighting near the first island chain. Because how expensive, complex and dangerous to operate the CBGs, the carriers are second options for wealthy nations when they can’t find land-based assets. I’m sure even the USN would have preferred land systems if given a choice.

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Land based assets might be more efficient, right up to the first island chain, but it doesn't bring national pride like a carrier does.

There is always a political side to this.

Viktor Jav said:

And may I ask why would China initiate a fight on the Korean Peninsular ? Setting aside the problem of how would China actually convince a mercurial North Korea to allow it access to the DMZ (Kim may be temperamental but he is not stupid enough to put himself in a situation where Beijing has direct power in his country). There is the issue of whether there will be a justification for such an act. It is not a given that South Korea will come leaping to the US' aid in any Sino-US conflict, even with a mutual defense treaty in place. The potential damage Seoul will suffer is far too great, vice versa if China ever does invade the Korean Peninsular, it will be facing one of the largest and most heavily armed military in the world in a defensive posture. The cost would be considerable.
Unless the conflict directly involves South Korea's interests, it is unlikely that it will openly align itself with either side in a conflict and neither side would seek to actively court it either.
Though I agree on the rest of your assessment that a sea blockade on China is a lot more complex than just preventing goods from being shipped to and fro China. The implications on global trade would be tremendous.

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If China and the US are in a naval-air war, China will lose. And desperate leaderships will do anything to avoid defeat.
And if China loses, how long will North Korea survive as it will be utterly alone? Fatty Kim knows this.

So Fatty Kim would welcome Chinese soldiers engaging the US 2nd Infantry division based in Seoul. And nothing Seoul will do can stop China seeking to engage the US on land, where it is China that has the relative advantage.

It will be a re-run of the Korean war, except China has a good chance of conquering South Korea and capturing the US 2nd Infantry division. The worse case for China is just another stalemate like last time

The main use of Chinese carriers is to make sure a China-US naval and air war as unlikely as possible.

Oh my oh my! An old school member has returned for a very short visit. FriedRiceNSpice is from way back!!..all the way back to the EZboard days...i.e. 2005...I'm happy to see FriedRiceNSpice visiting. Next thing you know Gollevian,planeman and a host of others will show back up!

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As much as we all think about what the Chinese are capable of with their CVs at this point until all the logistics lines and escorts are trained up and in place the Chinese CVs will more than likely stay close to home. but someday we will see them roaming all the oceans of the Earth.

Right now to the near future, I would see Chinese carriers do these:

Continue to train up more pilots.

Exercise. A Chinese carrier group can represent blue or red force against other Chinese fleets or land based air forces.

Scare the pants off Taiwan by having a carrier group encircle the island and conduct exercises east of the island.

Respond to a large FONOP in any of the China seas, by which I mean a FONOP involving US or even a British carrier. By response I don't mean chasing after and escorting the FONOP ship, I mean do a large exercise after the opposing carrier has left the area.

If you got Type 075s these ships can be sent into escort missions in the Gulf of Aden.

bd popeye said:

Oh my oh my! An old school member has returned for a very short visit. FriedRiceNSpice is from way back!!..all the way back to the EZboard days...i.e. 2005...I'm happy to see FriedRiceNSpice visiting. Next thing you know Gollevian,planeman and a host of others will show back up!

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Hehe thanks Popeye, although I rarely post, I still lurk in the shadows as this forum is one of the best sources of up-to-date and reliable information on news and developments regarding China and defense matters. Also love your daily photos threads , its amazing how you have kept those up all these years!

Thank you my friend..Thanks so much.

Since this forum started 13 years ago the PLA has undergone a great transformation! actually..well nearly unbelievable!

Iron Man said:

Nobody here AFAIK is talking about China initiating a war with SK or the US on the Korean peninsula, but rather as a means of opening up a second front at a distinct advantage for the Chinese side as part of a wider ongoing military conflict between China and the US. China being the one to initiate hostilities in this region is a false narrative; it's never going to happen.

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A second front already means war, you cannot honestly expect SK to just let China strike at US assets on its soil without any retort ? The idea that China can some how conduct a so called "second front" without it escalating into a full blown war its the political example of an emperor without clothes/ word twisting. And if that second front is going to involve SK I highly doubt that China will have a distinct advantage on the Korean Peninsular.
Plus I never put forth the premise that China would be the first one to fire a shot in the region, but that is what other people have contended ,starting with the original posts.
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/goto/post?id=517620#post-517620

AndrewS said:

If China and the US are in a naval-air war, China will lose. And desperate leaderships will do anything to avoid defeat.
And if China loses, how long will North Korea survive as it will be utterly alone? Fatty Kim knows this.

So Fatty Kim would welcome Chinese soldiers engaging the US 2nd Infantry division based in Seoul. And nothing Seoul will do can stop China seeking to engage the US on land, where it is China that has the relative advantage.

It will be a re-run of the Korean war, except China has a good chance of conquering South Korea and capturing the US 2nd Infantry division. The worse case for China is just another stalemate like last time

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It is not like North Korea is putting all its chips with China nowadays. If it was, it would not have gone out of it's way to go nuclear. Nor would Kim have purged all his top officials with links to China.
And how would conquering South Korea help China in it's war ? It does not deprive the US of its ability to operate in the region, it still have bases in Yokosuka, Guam and Okinawa. It does not defeat a major contingent of US assets in the region. South Korea only has 20,000 thousand US soldiers and 0 aircraft carriers or strategic assets.
If China is doomed to lose a naval-air war with the US from the start, invading South Korea will hardly tip the war back to its favour. Worst comes to worse, South Korea can fall and the US can still fight on just as well.
And that fall will not come easy for China, I don't know that it is about people talking about a Korean war rerun, but let us just rerun the figures for once. If China wants to invade South Korea it will have to not only potentially fight North Korea which while weak can still put up a fight or at least be a passive aggressive partner that constantly hampers Chinese operations, it will have to face off against a half million strong army, backed up by one of the largest airforce and navy in the region. The only way China can ensure that it will have a distinct advantage would be if it concentrate a good portion of it's naval-air and land assets in the region, assets that are needed to face off the US. In fact, invading South Korea would result in a spectacular backlash for China at worse, and a meager morale boost at best. Capturing the US 2nd infantry may sound good on the media, but it does not address the issue of US carriers plying the East China Sea, or bombers taking off from Guam or Okinawa.