Future PLAN naval and carrier operations

Deino said:

Since it went much too far off-topic, became too much political

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AndrewS said:

You are correct that no sane opponent would ever want to fight China proper on land.
But that opponent may have no choice.

If the US and China get into a naval-air war, how long will it be until we see the Chinese Army pouring into the Korean Peninsula?
The US 2nd Infantry Division based in Seoul will be forced to fight the Chinese Army, and the US will be dragged into that land war in which it cannot achieve a strategic victory.

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With the current balance of military power, I agree that the main purpose of the PLAN will be to keep the trade routes open.

But realistically, Gwadar is too isolated to support and is there actually any need for a PLAN presence there, if Chinese/Pakistani/Iranian/Afghan trade is completely intermingled at Pakistani ports?

On the other hand, it is feasible for the PLAN to keep the South China Seas open, given the new bases and how close it is to the Chinese mainland. China is the world's largest trading nation with most of that trade flowing through the SCS, and China does sit at the centre of the Asian trade network.

So China will be trying to keep the SCS open for everyone in order to intermingle its trade and break a US blockade.

In comparison, the US will be trying to shut down that shipping. Given how dependent Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia are on SCS/China trade, those countries will be aligned with China against a US blockade.

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Deino said:

Since it went much too far off-topic, became too much political

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Orthan said:

A thread with this kind of theme always becomes political.

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• Ok so let’s do a timeline my favourite part for 003

1. 
   July 2018 modules spotted
   July 2020 launch
   July 2021 Sea trials
   
   Simultaneously 004 follows in 2021
   
   By 2021 we should see 005 and 006
   
   JNCX and DL
   
   First modules of 2 x CVN should see 2021
   
   Launch 2024 and sea trials 2025
   
   So basically from March 2015 to mid 2025 China will have built
   
   002 STOBAR
   003 CV EMALS
   004 CV EMALS
   005 CVN
   006 CVN
   
   That’s 5 carriers in 10 years

Viktor Jav said:

And may I ask why would China initiate a fight on the Korean Peninsular ? Setting aside the problem of how would China actually convince a mercurial North Korea to allow it access to the DMZ (Kim may be temperamental but he is not stupid enough to put himself in a situation where Beijing has direct power in his country). There is the issue of whether there will be a justification for such an act. It is not a given that South Korea will come leaping to the US' aid in any Sino-US conflict, even with a mutual defense treaty in place. The potential damage Seoul will suffer is far too great, vice versa if China ever does invade the Korean Peninsular, it will be facing one of the largest and most heavily armed military in the world in a defensive posture. The cost would be considerable.
Unless the conflict directly involves South Korea's interests, it is unlikely that it will openly align itself with either side in a conflict and neither side would seek to actively court it either.
Though I agree on the rest of your assessment that a sea blockade on China is a lot more complex than just preventing goods from being shipped to and fro China. The implications on global trade would be tremendous.

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PikeCowboy said:

1) Because it serves at the US army base of operations for east Asia.
2) They won't necessarily have a choice.

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PikeCowboy said:

1) Because it serves at the US army base of operations for east Asia.
2) They won't necessarily have a choice.

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Viktor Jav said:

And I believe that I have stated that it is very unlikely that South Korea will allow the US to base it's operations on its soil in the event of a Sino-US war unless the conflict directly affects it's interests. Even during peace time do we ever see any US planes or ships being based in South Korea that actively participated in patrols or operations clearly earmarked against China ? The answer would be no, South Korea is extremely careful to make it clear that US forces in South Korea are there for North Korea and North Korea only. I would expect that during a Sino-US conflict South Korea's first reaction would be to declare neutrality and to bar the US from using its base for any operations against China.
Only Japan has made it's side clear from the start, but that is should come as no surprise.
And at the same time if China initiates hostilities with South Korea, it will inevitably draw in one of the top military powers in the world on the US side. Sure the PLA has the bigger manpower, but it is not likely all 2 million troops can be focused on the Korean Peninsular, South Korea on the other hand has all its half a million active troops right where the fight is going to be.
And we are honestly expecting North Korea to just roll over and allow China to cross it's borders to initiate war with South Korea, henceforth dooming its future to whatever outcome the Sino-US war concludes ? If anything, North Korea is going to fortified both its northern and southern borders just like South Korea is going to do. And if there is anything China can do just as foolhardy as initiating war with South Korea, it will be attempting to coerce North Korea when it is prosecuting a war with the US at the same time.

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