Future PLAN naval and carrier operations

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
this was actually one of the reasons for Soviets to use the swarms (which I mentioned Saturday at 8:10 PM and Yesterday at 10:31 AM);
the other reason was the Soviets assumed the bigger is the group of attacking missiles, the higher is a probability some missile(s) will hit
("higher" as compared to sending separate missiles in separate attacks)

Yes. Then Aegis plus VLS was developed to fire missiles every 2seconds to counter the swarm.

But slow subsonic swarms give the defender multiple VLS slavoes to shoot them down, even at 20km. With a Mach 3 missile, there is only 1 chance.

Plus I seriously doubt that an Lrasm can make it to 20km without being detected.

It is after all, a small missile which can't avoid detection by UHF radars.
 

Brumby

Major
A typical ballistic missile has a conical warhead with a radar cross section at X-band of 0.01 m2. In contrast, the LRASM is claimed to be very stealthy – virtually undetectable. The USN has always had a healthy respect for sea skimming cruise missiles more than ballistic missiles. This is because the detection window for a typical non VLO sea skimming cruise missile is in the 15 to 20 nm region due to the earth curvature regardless of how powerful are your ship sensors. The LRASM further adds to this problem because it is not only VLO but its onboard ESM features dynamically allow it to navigate around the sensors of its targets and or escorts based on their electronic emission patterns. In addition, the LRASM can operate collaboratively in a swarm like manner through networking its multi-modal sensors and offering diverse observation angles to improve target identification. Using its onboard AI algorithm, it can dynamically retarget autonomously. In effect, the swarm protects each other by quantitatively overwhelming defenses when they operate through collective behaviour. Neither the Chinese or the Russian have anything similar because their design philosophy is simply brute force based on speed through a bigger missile to house more fuel. The next phase of the LRASM is to add EA and ECM onto its capabilities.

Btw there are different meanings to the word swarm attack. The traditional and most basic meaning is simply that a bunch of missiles are launched together against a target hoping to "swarm" it by sheer numbers, The swarming features of the LRASM is AI driven where they are able to conduct decision in real time and collectively through a network of data links to ether re-target or cooperate in attacks by sharing information and acting collaboratively.
 

azesus

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yeah, "claimed" to be virtually undetectable. "Claiming" plus blah blah blah plus other accumulative additive other measures with vague general subjective artistic poetic literary wordings all combined complex operations all work harmoniously in a zen like ta-chi network nirvana state while demanding excruciating technical detail insider military grade spec details burden of the proof on the russia/china side because the weakest link is the highest strength of a chain thus prone for failure, okay GOT It.
 

lgnxz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes, especially this one
its onboard ESM features dynamically allow it to navigate around the sensors of its targets and or escorts based on their electronic emission patterns
Like how does a missile 'navigate around sensors' ?? Huh, didn't know that a radio wave can be physically evaded once you're in range. And also this..

networking its multi-modal sensors and offering diverse observation angles to improve target identification. Using its onboard AI algorithm, it can dynamically retarget autonomously
How does sensor fusion of many used for targeting can cause a countering defense' system 'swarmed and overwhelmed' due to the said targeting sensors? Based on your writings here it seems to me that this LRASM missile is only using those sensors to help it target or perhaps an evasive move against anti-missile defense, though with the subsonic speed I wonder how effective it can be. However it's not swarming anything. It's not disrupting the defense' sensors, at the end of the day it's only a single missile..

conduct decision in real time and collectively through a network of data links to ether re-target or cooperate in attacks by sharing information and acting collaboratively.
Sharing information and acting collaboratively, with what? Other missiles? If so then it goes back to the same old tactics of missile swarming..
 

azesus

Junior Member
Registered Member
Like real time remote control "perfectly" without transmission distorted error suffer any defensive jamming once fired off and without the platform being threatened perfect harmoniously data link sharing guiding missiles around and round all defense
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yep, more "California Dreamin" here on SDF, (think 15T J-20 empty weight), if you are a thousand miles away from the boat? (no way in hell thats gonna happen), you're NOT flying a fighter cap! and those B-1s (which are small in total numbers) have suddenly become magnitudes more dangerous.

but honestly, those carrier battle groups are in far more jeopardy from an attack submarine fleet

California dreaming indeed.

It would be very funny indeed if the CSBA paper (written by former Pentagon and Navy strategists) was actually written in California.

Remember that this paper is an attempt by the US Navy to make the carrier relevant, because current operations with current aircraft have an operating radius of less than 1000km.

If future carrier operations can't be conducted at 2000km, that suits Chinese strategists just fine.

All the Chinese core objectives lie 1000-1500km from airbases located on mainland China. That is within range of current cruise missiles and heavyweight fighters.

It is the US which would be critically short of secure airbases which are beyond this range. Basically it's Guam and a limited number of aircraft carriers.

Hence it is the US which has to find some way to conduct very long range fighter operations, because China doesn't actually need to.

And the point still stands.

If the US does manage 2000km fighter CAP, China should be able to counter with an equivalent capability anyway
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
According to Lockheed Martin own F-35 advertisement its frontal detection by S-400 is about 50 miles and from the side is much greater than that according to stealth detection bow-tie shape, so a stealth missile fly close to 50 miles and then flying at subsonic speed gives plenty of time for defense system to react, its even harder for the platform to gather for a coordinated saturation attack much the less out-saturated by a saturation defense. Putting a saturated attack makes it easier to defend because higher density in a guess estimated frontal. Detection from the top from EAW and satellite is very effective against it just like against low attitude cruise missile. This is similar concept tried by the Soviet Tu bomber and Tomcat defends pretty well against that. Stealth missile cost a lot with the cost ineffective dwindling supply chain during the previous sequestration and the MIC profit motive they always low ball the real cost of stealth missile the total cost is more like 5~7 mil per missile so its cost ineffective for saturation attack
You're just throwing out random numbers and making wholesale assumptions that have no evidentiary basis of any kind. You have no evidence how much distance a stealth missile can be detected, much less under what conditions and by what sensors, including "EAW" platforms. You just don't even have the faintest clue about any of these things, yet you are making these grandiose assumptions like you somehow do know.

As for cost, you have absolutely no idea about the 'true' cost of any given stealth missile. That "5-7 mil per missile" is a random inflated number you pulled out of literally nowhere, let's be honest here. Not only that, stealth ASCMs don't have to attack with as high a number as standard ASCMs since they can get much closer to the target before being detected. Saturation attacks involving nonstealthy missiles assume that the detecting platform knows about the saturation attack from far away, and can mount a vigorous defense. The scenario plays out as a brute force war of attrition between attacking missiles and defending missiles, CIWS, and ECM. With stealth missiles the detection envelope is shrunk to a significant extent, so that even if the defending platform had enough air defense missiles, they may not have enough time to launch all of them before the stealth missiles are upon them. In addition, both air defense missile and CIWS Pks as well as effective range are invariably decreased against smaller RCS targets like stealth missiles.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
According to Lockheed Martin own F-35 advertisement its frontal detection by S-400 is about 50 miles and from the side is much greater than that according to stealth detection bow-tie shape, so a stealth missile fly close to 50 miles and then flying at subsonic speed gives plenty of time for defense system to react, its even harder for the platform to gather for a coordinated saturation attack much the less out-saturated by a saturation defense. Putting a saturated attack makes it easier to defend because higher density in a guess estimated frontal. Detection from the top from EAW and satellite is very effective against it just like against low attitude cruise missile. This is similar concept tried by the Soviet Tu bomber and Tomcat defends pretty well against that. Stealth missile cost a lot with the cost ineffective dwindling supply chain during the previous sequestration and the MIC profit motive they always low ball the real cost of stealth missile the total cost is more like 5~7 mil per missile so its cost ineffective for saturation attack

So to put your post in context? would you be so kind as to link the advertisement you are referencing? if LockMart is citing the max detection range as 50 nautical? would you suppose DOD would allow them to post the actual detection range of their most classifed 5th Generation aircraft.....

50 nautical is outstanding, but I'm rather certain that LockMart would be not reveal the actual detection range, which is likely in the 20 to 30 nautical mile range? that is entirely conjecture, but I imagine that LockMart's figure is very conservative.

So if you could link that advertisement, the wording would help us understand what LockMart is actually saying to their potential customers.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
A typical ballistic missile has a conical warhead with a radar cross section at X-band of 0.01 m2. In contrast, the LRASM is claimed to be very stealthy – virtually undetectable. The USN has always had a healthy respect for sea skimming cruise missiles more than ballistic missiles. This is because the detection window for a typical non VLO sea skimming cruise missile is in the 15 to 20 nm region due to the earth curvature regardless of how powerful are your ship sensors. The LRASM further adds to this problem because it is not only VLO but its onboard ESM features dynamically allow it to navigate around the sensors of its targets and or escorts based on their electronic emission patterns. In addition, the LRASM can operate collaboratively in a swarm like manner through networking its multi-modal sensors and offering diverse observation angles to improve target identification. Using its onboard AI algorithm, it can dynamically retarget autonomously. In effect, the swarm protects each other by quantitatively overwhelming defenses when they operate through collective behaviour. Neither the Chinese or the Russian have anything similar because their design philosophy is simply brute force based on speed through a bigger missile to house more fuel. The next phase of the LRASM is to add EA and ECM onto its capabilities.

Btw there are different meanings to the word swarm attack. The traditional and most basic meaning is simply that a bunch of missiles are launched together against a target hoping to "swarm" it by sheer numbers, The swarming features of the LRASM is AI driven where they are able to conduct decision in real time and collectively through a network of data links to ether re-target or cooperate in attacks by sharing information and acting collaboratively.

I would disagree that an LRASM is virtually undetectable.

We can see small control surfaces like fins, and indeed the smallish missile body would generate UHF radar returns

So we can expect to see multiple AWACs and destroyers operating UHF Aesa radars at different angles. Then sharing the results with CEC and generating missile tracks.

The US has already demonstrated this with with NIFC-CA using Aegis and E-2s.

And if there is a competition between AI and ECM, it is the defending destroyer fleet which has much greater capability than a bunch of small missiles.

But just for argument's sake, let's say LRASM is as stealthy, effective and as smart as you say.

There is nothing stopping the Chinese military from developing an LRASM equivalent.

And if both US and Chinese LRASMs make the Western Pacific a no-go areas for ships, that suits the Chinese military just fine.

China has the use of land based aircraft and missiles to achieve its objectives next to the Chinese mainland in the Western Pacific, whilst the US only has Guam some 3000km away.
 
Yes. Then Aegis plus VLS was developed to fire missiles every 2seconds to counter the swarm.

But slow subsonic swarms give the defender multiple VLS slavoes to shoot them down, even at 20km. With a Mach 3 missile, there is only 1 chance.

Plus I seriously doubt that an Lrasm can make it to 20km without being detected.

It is after all, a small missile which can't avoid detection by UHF radars.
what "slow subsonic swarm" are you giving me??

Saturday at 8:10 PM
and
Yesterday at 10:31 AM
I talked swarms of ca. M2 missiles back in 1970s;
if you want, google something like
p-700+ashm
and
p-500+ashm
 
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