FN-6 in syrian rebel
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MwRYum
Major
Since there're elements in the FSA who are non-Syrians, and have ties with radical groups such as AQ and its franchises, organized and heavy handed western support as seen in Libya won't manifest...unless the West has forgotten that lesson so soon, how can anyone ever guarantee those weapon shipments won't ended up in the hands of those who worship UBL? Saudi's bankroll can only go so far, but to really topple a regime that still have an organised order of battle, have backing by 2 of the super powers (however lip service it really is), what chance that a bunch of radicals, some renegade army units that has not brought with their own logistic trains, plus a horde of civilians who are best in wasting ammo and getting themselves killed in front of cameras have?
Besides, the last who'd want Assad's regime fold would be Israel...they might not say it out loud, but the ensuing chaos of losing Assad's regime would be a worse prospect then the uneasy "peace" as it was before the whole "Arab Spring"...seriously, the name is such an irony now we looking back, because what follows were...well, if they were knee deep in poop before, now they're chest deep and sinking.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
this war will go on for a while yet, more civilians will die and things will get much worse before they get better
for sure both sides are wrong, I blame both
there’s only one close by country that can take out Assad’s forces in a surgical strike that’s Turkey, with their vast military and air force they could quite easily take out entire Syrian military if push came to shove
however I think Turkey should not do that but what it should do is send its very capable military advisors to Syria under civilian cover, also send in Turkish Special Forces under cover and shot down Assad’s aircraft with MANPADS, keep a tight hold of the weapons or destroy them afterwards but allow Turkish forces embedded with the rebels to do the sophisticated jobs, once the air threat is neutralised the grounds forces will follow
and lastly secure the vast depots of Igla MANPADS the Syrian regime has from falling into rebel hands , otherwise we might start seeing airliner being downed by some lunatic
for sure both sides are wrong, I blame both
there’s only one close by country that can take out Assad’s forces in a surgical strike that’s Turkey, with their vast military and air force they could quite easily take out entire Syrian military if push came to shove
however I think Turkey should not do that but what it should do is send its very capable military advisors to Syria under civilian cover, also send in Turkish Special Forces under cover and shot down Assad’s aircraft with MANPADS, keep a tight hold of the weapons or destroy them afterwards but allow Turkish forces embedded with the rebels to do the sophisticated jobs, once the air threat is neutralised the grounds forces will follow
and lastly secure the vast depots of Igla MANPADS the Syrian regime has from falling into rebel hands , otherwise we might start seeing airliner being downed by some lunatic
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Turkey would have to be stupid to get involved so heavily. I think they are already deeply regretting the role they had already played so far after Assad all by gift wrapped control of neighbouring areas to Kurdish rebels. During the early stages of the civil war, Turkey was almost gleeful in its support of the rebels, but now, they seem to have gone very quiet of late, with even reports that large amounts of Iranian arms are making their way to government forces via Turkey.
If Turkey does spend in actual combat units to fight against government forces in Syria, I fully expect the Syrians to misplace many of those Igla MANPADS as well as a host of other stuff any terrorist would find very useful in Kurdish controlled areas bordering Turkey. If Turkish involvement looks like it is going to bring about the imminent collapse of Assad's regime, I would not at all be surprised if chemical weapons go walkers inside Kurdish controlled areas as a last parting gift from Assad.
Even the sole superpower America cannot escape blowback from their military adventures half way around the world. For Turkey, the blowback would be far swifter and much more deadly.
I think Turkey misjudged the situation at first, thinking Assad was badly weakened and about to fall with little he could do in response, but they seemed to have somehow forgotten about the Kurdish card, and I think Assad was very clever in playing that card just enough to annoy and worry Turkey without screwing with them so much that it might force Turkey to step in directly. Think if it as a shot across Turkey's bow and a reminder that even though conventionally, the Turkish military could tip the tide, there are things Assad could do before he is taken out that would cause Turkey massive problems for years and decades a to come.
In addition, I think Turkey is looking at the mass gathering of extremist Islamic militant and terrorist groups inside Syria would growing alarm and concern. It was all fun and games when they were just playing puppet master with Syrian rebels who the Turks could relate to and probably think they could easily manipulate or control after Assad is gone to bring the new Syria firmly under Turkish influence. But now they have a friends reunited convention of the most extreme and dangerous Islamic extremists and terrorists in the world going on right across the boarder, and I think the Turks are getting increasingly concerned about what that will mean for them and their own national security if and when Assad falls and those career jihadists start looking for their next adventure after looting the national armouries of Syria.
Turkey wants to rejoin the big leagues, but seemed to have been out of the game too long in that they have forgotten the number one rule of how to be a regional superpower - don't sh!t where you live.
Even a hostile neighbouring government is preferable to chaos and anarchy right on your boarders, and I think Turkey is slowly relearning that important rule. I just hope it is not a very costly lesson for them to learn.
If Turkey does spend in actual combat units to fight against government forces in Syria, I fully expect the Syrians to misplace many of those Igla MANPADS as well as a host of other stuff any terrorist would find very useful in Kurdish controlled areas bordering Turkey. If Turkish involvement looks like it is going to bring about the imminent collapse of Assad's regime, I would not at all be surprised if chemical weapons go walkers inside Kurdish controlled areas as a last parting gift from Assad.
Even the sole superpower America cannot escape blowback from their military adventures half way around the world. For Turkey, the blowback would be far swifter and much more deadly.
I think Turkey misjudged the situation at first, thinking Assad was badly weakened and about to fall with little he could do in response, but they seemed to have somehow forgotten about the Kurdish card, and I think Assad was very clever in playing that card just enough to annoy and worry Turkey without screwing with them so much that it might force Turkey to step in directly. Think if it as a shot across Turkey's bow and a reminder that even though conventionally, the Turkish military could tip the tide, there are things Assad could do before he is taken out that would cause Turkey massive problems for years and decades a to come.
In addition, I think Turkey is looking at the mass gathering of extremist Islamic militant and terrorist groups inside Syria would growing alarm and concern. It was all fun and games when they were just playing puppet master with Syrian rebels who the Turks could relate to and probably think they could easily manipulate or control after Assad is gone to bring the new Syria firmly under Turkish influence. But now they have a friends reunited convention of the most extreme and dangerous Islamic extremists and terrorists in the world going on right across the boarder, and I think the Turks are getting increasingly concerned about what that will mean for them and their own national security if and when Assad falls and those career jihadists start looking for their next adventure after looting the national armouries of Syria.
Turkey wants to rejoin the big leagues, but seemed to have been out of the game too long in that they have forgotten the number one rule of how to be a regional superpower - don't sh!t where you live.
Even a hostile neighbouring government is preferable to chaos and anarchy right on your boarders, and I think Turkey is slowly relearning that important rule. I just hope it is not a very costly lesson for them to learn.
asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
I don't think you are up to date with the worlds recent events, Abdullah Ocalan the founder of the PKK announced last month a ceasefire ending more than 3 decades of war
The deal is between the the two is lead by the very top and not a cease fire declared by armed groups, instead high level talks between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Abdullah Ocalan are agreeing on a new constitution for the Kurdish regions
And I would think that Turkey is leading the big leagues let alone be part of them, they don't want to be a regional superpower they are the regional superpower and a NATO member and part of the G-20
Having been in NATO for over 6 decades with the second largest standing army in NATO after America
The deal is between the the two is lead by the very top and not a cease fire declared by armed groups, instead high level talks between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Abdullah Ocalan are agreeing on a new constitution for the Kurdish regions
And I would think that Turkey is leading the big leagues let alone be part of them, they don't want to be a regional superpower they are the regional superpower and a NATO member and part of the G-20
Having been in NATO for over 6 decades with the second largest standing army in NATO after America
MwRYum
Major
Case in point: their recent reconcile with Israel...despite a lot of things they're at odds with each other, a destabilized neighbourhood would only gets them burned, and having a "World Jihadist College - Syria Campus" bordering both of them is a common concern.