Diving Falcon
Junior Member
IMO, unless we get full visual disclosure of the FC-20 - we won't exactly know what it is. At the day the end F-16 is called F-16 by a person, regardless of whether it is A/B, C/D, E/F, Block-70, etc. Problem with concluding that FC-20 is just a customized/Pakistan-specific J-10 is that it would be a redundant and stale acquisition if the Block-52+ are inducted. The F-10A (as ACM once called it) would really just repeat the Block-52+...simply increase the number of fighters in that class.
By 2015 I think the JF-17 will be quite close to the Block-52+ in terms of ECM/EW and radar performance - perhaps found in an AESA system? Of course PAF can have J-10 equipped with better avionics, ECM/EW, radar, etc, by then - but what about range, payload...what about things like super-cruise or a stealthier airframe?
Right now FC-20 is not included in the 2012 fleet, so it is probably included in the 2015 or at the latest 2019. By then we should expect IAF to have their MRCA and Su-30MKIs further enhanced. Another factor Pakistani planners should be taking note of is possible future confrontation with the U.S.. I think the projection of FC-20 is more or less a 4.5 generation fighter that equals the air-to-air performance or Rafale and Typhoon.
IMO PAF wants FC-20 to be equipped with as many Chinese systems as possible. Besides the relative cost factor compared to European counterparts, it also provides Pakistan with a solid wild card that neither IAF or USAF would entirely know about.
I think we need to realize that had it not been for the military and economic sanctions in the 1990s, the PAF would have inducted a good number of 4th generation fighters, BVRAAM, AEW&C and IFR by now. The PAF has been studying these concepts since the late 1970s...no doubt it'll be doing the same now IMO. Had today's China been there in 1992, these things would certainly be in Pakistan's arsenal. Pakistan kept with the times in the 1970s with the induction of Mirage III/Vs and in the 1980s with F-16s.
If the opportunity is there in China, I personally think PAF will do what it can to be in the same playing league as major air forces. I don't think China is a last resort option anymore, IMO it appears that any requirement comes up in the Pakistani Forces - first one to get the details abroad will be China. Even the PAF Commander said Europe would have to offer as a very good and very cost effective avionics package to compete against the Chinese one currently on it.
When the Plus One requirement was being settled, I remember Mirage 2000-5Mk2, Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen and J-10 being the main contenders. The Mirage 2000-9 was dropped straight off the bat. The Gripen was probably a very liked option, but I bet the cost and political issues killed that option. It was really down to Typhoon, Rafale and J-10 - and I believe PAF must have found a potential equal to the European Fighters in J-10. The Pakistani Cabinet approved a "Joint Working Group" for the "FC-20". Given the later induction date, the potential scenarios PAF would need to deal with in the future - it'd be an excellent investment to focus on Super-10. If we believed China could not do it, then we would've gone and spent the extra amount on Rafale...we spent A LOT on the 24 Mirage IIIs in 1967 - we'd do the same today.
That's my reasoning about FC-20 being Super-10/at least a genuine 4.5 generation fighter.
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