Economic Predictions Thread

solarz

Brigadier
The purpose of this thread is to post economic predictions and check in a few years whether they came true or not.

First one:

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So it's still a bit away from the 24 months timeline predicted in the above article, but I think it's safe to say that the prediction was bogus:

“At the rate we’re now going with 20-per-cent year-on-year price increases, assuming stable mortgage rates and continued income growth, we’ll be at 1989 valuation levels in about 24 months,” senior economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a note last week.

The assumption was flat out wrong. Mortgage rates have risen from 2% to over 3% since 2017, and along that came more stringent qualification requirements and a foreign buyer tax that caused a market correction. Condo prices have rocketed in the past 18 months while house prices have dropped slightly, but far from a crash. Prices are now back on the upswing.

Conclusion: prediction was WRONG!
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
So it's still a bit away from the 24 months timeline predicted in the above article, but I think it's safe to say that the prediction was bogus:



The assumption was flat out wrong. Mortgage rates have risen from 2% to over 3% since 2017, and along that came more stringent qualification requirements and a foreign buyer tax that caused a market correction. Condo prices have rocketed in the past 18 months while house prices have dropped slightly, but far from a crash. Prices are now back on the upswing.

Conclusion: prediction was WRONG!
You are in Toronto correct? How do people even afford houses in Toronto and Vancouver I can never understand.

The average salary is higher than Calgary and Edmonton than both Toronto and Vancouver, and yet our house prices are probably half of what you guys pay.

I locked in my mortgage at 2.1% and will pay off all of it in less than half a year! But if I needed my mortgage now at 3%+ @ 700k, I would be totally screwed.
 

solarz

Brigadier
You are in Toronto correct? How do people even afford houses in Toronto and Vancouver I can never understand.

The average salary is higher than Calgary and Edmonton than both Toronto and Vancouver, and yet our house prices are probably half of what you guys pay.

I locked in my mortgage at 2.1% and will pay off all of it in less than half a year! But if I needed my mortgage now at 3%+ @ 700k, I would be totally screwed.

LOL, you think Toronto and Vancouver's bad, what about Shanghai and Beijing?

You just have to accept the fact that you'll be paying a lot of mortgage. Forget about paying it off quickly.

The other factor is parental help. A lot of young families get money from their parents to buy their house.
 

SDWatcher

New Member
Registered Member
House.png

Until you see HK.

Average price of resale apartments at several hundred square feet, is US 1.03 M in HK (currency conversion seems to be wrong in the article).

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PiSigma

"the engineer"
LOL, you think Toronto and Vancouver's bad, what about Shanghai and Beijing?

You just have to accept the fact that you'll be paying a lot of mortgage. Forget about paying it off quickly.

The other factor is parental help. A lot of young families get money from their parents to buy their house.
My family got a couple of apartments within the 2nd ring road of Beijing. Each is worth over 10M Yuan. But as long as someone lives in them, it doesn't matter, only if they are sold will the value come out.

In shanghai we own one of the original houses in xuejiahui, and a couple of apartments in pudong (right behind the aurora tower), but once again people live in them so unless we sell them, they don't really hold value.

What I mean for mortgage rate and house prices is that young people buying their first properties are less and less able to afford any decent housing near city centres in any major city world wide. For people like me trading up, I can sell my house and buy a mansion in the suburbs or get a nice condo in downtown. But for those in 20s, without parental help, most likely far suburbs small place with a 1 hr commute to work.
 

solarz

Brigadier
My family got a couple of apartments within the 2nd ring road of Beijing. Each is worth over 10M Yuan. But as long as someone lives in them, it doesn't matter, only if they are sold will the value come out.

In shanghai we own one of the original houses in xuejiahui, and a couple of apartments in pudong (right behind the aurora tower), but once again people live in them so unless we sell them, they don't really hold value.

What I mean for mortgage rate and house prices is that young people buying their first properties are less and less able to afford any decent housing near city centres in any major city world wide. For people like me trading up, I can sell my house and buy a mansion in the suburbs or get a nice condo in downtown. But for those in 20s, without parental help, most likely far suburbs small place with a 1 hr commute to work.

Pretty much everyone we know who bought houses bought it with parental help, and that's not for downtown, or even Toronto proper. It's for suburbs.

Hell, in Toronto, a 1 hour commute is normal.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Another prediction:

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Elon Musk: Any other car than a Tesla in 3 years will be like ‘owning a horse’

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— known for making bold, and by some measures outlandish statements — threw down the gauntlet to other automakers.

“The fundamental message that consumers should be taking today is that it’s financially insane to buy anything other than a
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, ” the CEO of the electric auto maker said after Monday’s
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. “It would be like owning a horse in three years. I mean, fine if you want to own a horse. But you should go into it with that expectation.”


On stage at the
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in Palo Alto, California, Musk boasted about Tesla’s self-driving technology, predicting his company will have more than 1 million robotaxis on the road next year.


“If you buy a car that does not have the hardware for full self-driving, it is like buying a horse,” he reiterated. “And the only car that has the hardware for full self-driving is a Tesla.”

It’s not the first time that Musk used the horse metaphor in describing Tesla cars. In September 2018, during
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with Joe Rogan, in which he appeared to smoke marijuana, he said that having Teslas and regular cars on the road speaks to a “
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where there were horses and gasoline cars in the road at the same time. ” He then added that “back in Manhattan” during that time there were “like 300,000 horses.”

Musk’s record for delivering on his predictions on time has been spotty. And on Monday, he admitted as much. “Sometimes I am not on time, but I get it done.” Some of his past promises, often made on
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, have landed him in
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.

The billionaire entrepreneur, behind the commercial space venture SpaceX as well, also predicted that Tesla in two years will be making cars with no steering wheels or pedals.

It's a bold prediction, and I don't see how it would happen in 3 years. 10 years maybe, but 3?

Let's see how it plays out!

(BTW, for the housing prediction in 2017, still no housing crash.)
 

solarz

Brigadier
Yay

Norquist reckons Trumps Policies will see him returned with greater numbers in 2018 and 2020


Remember the date of March 13, 2017. It was the day President Trump was guaranteed his re-election and Republican congressional gains in 2018 and 2020.

It's not complicated. Follow along.

The Congressional Budget Office released its study of Trump and Paul Ryan's plan to repeal Obamacare and begin to reform our healthcare system. It had many numbers. Only two mattered: taxes and spending.
CBO announced that the repeal bill reduces taxes by almost $900 billion and reduces federal spending by $1.2 trillion over the next decade. This reduces deficit spending by $300 billion over the next 10 years. Thus the CBO, as official umpire, announced that the GOP Obamacare repeal plan may be enacted through "reconciliation," the process that requires a simple majority in the House and only 51 votes in the Senate. No filibuster allowed.
erhaps equally important, the $300 billion in deficit reduction gives Republicans a great deal of wiggle room to amend their basic plan to win votes in the House and Senate to win those 218 congressmen and 51 senators. Tax cuts can be added into the mix. Thanks to the CBO score and the underlying power of the legislation, Obamacare repeal will now pass. The path is clear.

Yes, Democrats tried to focus on the CBO's guestimate as to how many Americans would choose to buy Obamacare insurance without the threat of fines and taxes. Answer: very few. This speaks to how unattractive Obamacare insurance products were and are.

The GOP legislation empowers, strengthens, and expands Health Savings Accounts and other consumer-directed tools such as Flexible Spending Accounts, and creates high-risk pools to take care of those with pre-existing conditions without burdening all other insurance buyers with those costs. Tax credits will help lower-income Americans afford the insurance they want.

The attractiveness of consumer-driven healthcare and the failure of Obamacare's insurance products — on price and quality — will drive Trump's plan forward. Name-calling and dire predictions will not survive contact with reality, or be remembered two Novembers from now.

Passage of Trump's repeal of Obamacare means the baseline for revenue — against which tax reform must be compared for it to pass inside reconciliation — is about $1 trillion lower. This means that the tax cut/tax reform package will also pass as the power of the lower business tax rate, the immediate full business expensing, and the abolition of the Death Tax and AMT will drive House and Senate members to pass the bill that will spur economic growth in time for the 2018 and 2020

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Well that prediction turn out to be a flop, but then the only reason Trump lost was the moronic way he handled COVID.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Another prediction:

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It's a bold prediction, and I don't see how it would happen in 3 years. 10 years maybe, but 3?

Let's see how it plays out!

(BTW, for the housing prediction in 2017, still no housing crash.)

Well it's been 4 years now and while Tesla numbers have grown, gas-powered cars are still the mainstream.

Yet another bust.
 
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