Does China have capable intelligence analytic capabilites ?

Information : Any data collected that haven't been treated

Intelligence : Information that have been analysed, verified and made available in the intelligence cycle.

Most of the time, when people talk about intelligence, we mainly think about collecting informations (like spies, satellites, SIGINT, HUMINT). But the real value comes from what's behind the frontline. Analyst from different background (political sciences, military, engineering, etc) are working with every bit of information available to them to make a finished product called intelligence. Analysts have the most important jobs because they are the one who make the links between information and that will allow that information to become usable in decision making.

The CIA does have a history of some famous intelligence failure : Failure to predict the fall of the Shah in Iran, failure of understand the geo-political and the human network in Afghanistan and Irak. The former KGB was know to have a massive information collecting but never possessed an analytic capabilites even close to what the CIA had, and their worst mistake almost sent the whole world into a nuclear war in 1983, during the Operation Able Archer.

I was told from multiples sources that the higher education system in China isn't too good about teaching student to analyse and I know a lot of chinese students who a studying abroad here in Canada in social sciences or in commerce are having a very hard time writing essay and making link between idea. Does chinese students learn about analytics ? If not, can this be a hinderance of developping a truly capable intelligence organisation ?

So now, where does China stand ? I believe she must have a very large information gathering net, but how about her analytic capabilities ?

Good question. I think it depends on the issue being analyzing. When it comes to analyzing Western countries' views on human rights and such, China has shown itself rather poor and understanding them. One example that comes to mind is when Chinese diplomats raised a fuss over the Uighur exiles' activist Rabiya Kadeer showing a video in Australia. The diplomats tried and failed to get her banned, and when it failed, all the press coverage made her movie screening widely attended. China's efforts backfired there. How could Chinese diplomats think they could get this woman banned from entering Australia and showing her movie? They must've tried some behind-the-scenes arm-twisting.

On the other hand, I suspect China's intelligence services know Taiwan backwards and forwards. I mean the people, the factions, the issues, and money, everything. The same goes for international economic issues. The Chinese government's reaction to the Great Recession has been well-planned and executed. It has barely affected their economy. That shows there are some good economists working for the government. Considering the successes in winning over Asian and African governments, I'd say they're got some good analysts working on those regions too.

But Chinese intelligence apparently failed to predict President Obama's "pivot" to Asia and stationing marines in Darwin, Australia. China looked a little foolish after that announcement. Ditto for China's backpedaling on the Spratly Islands after Vietnam and the Philippines pushed back hard. China's intelligence agencies are charged with understanding the views of foreign populations and governments and it's not hard to see how Filipino and Vietnamese people feel about those islands.

I'm curious how many Chinese intelligence and foreign ministry officers have been educated in the West. I've heard that a Western education hurts one's Chinese government career prospects. A Western education can be enlightening to understanding Western political thinking. The same goes for Westerners who studied in China. Although there are far fewer Westerners who have studied in China and know Mandarin, those few people are coveted for intelligence positions. Can the same be said of Chinese international students in the West?

Rowing_Ming said:

Information : Any data collected that haven't been treated

Intelligence : Information that have been analysed, verified and made available in the intelligence cycle.

Most of the time, when people talk about intelligence, we mainly think about collecting informations (like spies, satellites, SIGINT, HUMINT). But the real value comes from what's behind the frontline. Analyst from different background (political sciences, military, engineering, etc) are working with every bit of information available to them to make a finished product called intelligence. Analysts have the most important jobs because they are the one who make the links between information and that will allow that information to become usable in decision making.

The CIA does have a history of some famous intelligence failure : Failure to predict the fall of the Shah in Iran, failure of understand the geo-political and the human network in Afghanistan and Irak. The former KGB was know to have a massive information collecting but never possessed an analytic capabilites even close to what the CIA had, and their worst mistake almost sent the whole world into a nuclear war in 1983, during the Operation Able Archer.

I was told from multiples sources that the higher education system in China isn't too good about teaching student to analyse and I know a lot of chinese students who a studying abroad here in Canada in social sciences or in commerce are having a very hard time writing essay and making link between idea. Does chinese students learn about analytics ? If not, can this be a hinderance of developping a truly capable intelligence organisation ?

So now, where does China stand ? I believe she must have a very large information gathering net, but how about her analytic capabilities ?

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Analysis is not essay writing. It is mostly statistical data mining which is hardcore math and as far from essay writing as you can get. Also, most undergrads that study overseas are different from grads that study overseas. Grads get paid, so they must be pretty good, but undergrads pay MORE tuition and schools actively recruit them.

below_freezing said:

Analysis is not essay writing. It is mostly statistical data mining which is hardcore math and as far from essay writing as you can get. Also, most undergrads that study overseas are different from grads that study overseas. Grads get paid, so they must be pretty good, but undergrads pay MORE tuition and schools actively recruit them.

Click to expand...

Actually, this is only partly true. Analysis does need math sometime, but essay writing is even more important because you need to explain to make the receiver of that intelligence understand and be able to use it efficiently. It's no use to say : Well, according to the math and statistics, all those events are correlated but if you can't understand why or how, it's useless, especially if you don't know how to defend your point afterward.

Even though I don't have first hand military intelligence working experience, but I do have criminal intelligence working experience and I can assure it actually need a mix of both. The main problem with math is there's stuff that you can't really represent by using math equations. And even worst than that is math doesn't explain, it only help to support an explanation or a theory. In one of my report I made about criminality and police manpower, and I got a perfect correlation with numbers of crime rising proportionally with police manpower. And this case, that correlation is actually correct (but it could be illogical), because in real life, police manpower are higher where there's more crime because the situation ask for more police officers. And that's why essay writing is much more important in intelligence than math could be, because when you're presenting your report to your commanding officer or your superintendent, you also need to be able to defend it with sound arguments.

The most important part of the intelligence cycle is the distribution of intelligence at all three level (strategic, tactical and operational). To be honest, they don't really care for your math sometime, they just want one thing : what can they do with the intel you just gave them ?
And that's why essay writing skills are essentials, don't forget that intelligence is not really a hard science, it's more an interpretation of informations by some people.

Rowing_Ming said:

Actually, this is only partly true. Analysis does need math sometime, but essay writing is even more important because you need to explain to make the receiver of that intelligence understand and be able to use it efficiently. It's no use to say : Well, according to the math and statistics, all those events are correlated but if you can't understand why or how, it's useless, especially if you don't know how to defend your point afterward.

Even though I don't have first hand military intelligence working experience, but I do have criminal intelligence working experience and I can assure it actually need a mix of both. The main problem with math is there's stuff that you can't really represent by using math equations. And even worst than that is math doesn't explain, it only help to support an explanation or a theory. In one of my report I made about criminality and police manpower, and I got a perfect correlation with numbers of crime rising proportionally with police manpower. And this case, that correlation is actually correct (but it could be illogical), because in real life, police manpower are higher where there's more crime because the situation ask for more police officers. And that's why essay writing is much more important in intelligence than math could be, because when you're presenting your report to your commanding officer or your superintendent, you also need to be able to defend it with sound arguments.

The most important part of the intelligence cycle is the distribution of intelligence at all three level (strategic, tactical and operational). To be honest, they don't really care for your math sometime, they just want one thing : what can they do with the intel you just gave them ?
And that's why essay writing skills are essentials, don't forget that intelligence is not really a hard science, it's more an interpretation of informations by some people.

Click to expand...

true most scientists and engineers do not have the writing capabilities to communicate their ideas however don't mistake that for inability to interpret their own data. in science data interpretation is the most important part. the equations are often solvable by standard tools, but the guessing (or measurement) of parameters, qualitative interpretation of graphs and summary of trends are just as important.

below_freezing said:

true most scientists and engineers do not have the writing capabilities to communicate their ideas however don't mistake that for inability to interpret their own data. in science data interpretation is the most important part. the equations are often solvable by standard tools, but the guessing (or measurement) of parameters, qualitative interpretation of graphs and summary of trends are just as important.

Click to expand...

You have a definition of analysis that applies to specific situations, but we're talking about intelligence analysis which is different. Everything is information that can be use for intelligence. You do intelligence work in your daily basis, like when you are trying to shop something for the right price or asking for directions. Those are form of intelligence. In real life, there's no manual on "How to analyse intelligence" because it just mainly cover everything. And don't forget that everything about intelligence is also knowing how to use all that analysis. My working experience in the field of criminal intelligence show me actually that people with scientific background are less efficient in that field, because they have a hard time linking the information together.

Geographer said:

Good question. I think it depends on the issue being analyzing. When it comes to analyzing Western countries' views on human rights and such, China has shown itself rather poor and understanding them. One example that comes to mind is when Chinese diplomats raised a fuss over the Uighur exiles' activist Rabiya Kadeer showing a video in Australia. The diplomats tried and failed to get her banned, and when it failed, all the press coverage made her movie screening widely attended. China's efforts backfired there. How could Chinese diplomats think they could get this woman banned from entering Australia and showing her movie? They must've tried some behind-the-scenes arm-twisting.

On the other hand, I suspect China's intelligence services know Taiwan backwards and forwards. I mean the people, the factions, the issues, and money, everything. The same goes for international economic issues. The Chinese government's reaction to the Great Recession has been well-planned and executed. It has barely affected their economy. That shows there are some good economists working for the government. Considering the successes in winning over Asian and African governments, I'd say they're got some good analysts working on those regions too.

But Chinese intelligence apparently failed to predict President Obama's "pivot" to Asia and stationing marines in Darwin, Australia. China looked a little foolish after that announcement. Ditto for China's backpedaling on the Spratly Islands after Vietnam and the Philippines pushed back hard. China's intelligence agencies are charged with understanding the views of foreign populations and governments and it's not hard to see how Filipino and Vietnamese people feel about those islands.

I'm curious how many Chinese intelligence and foreign ministry officers have been educated in the West. I've heard that a Western education hurts one's Chinese government career prospects. A Western education can be enlightening to understanding Western political thinking. The same goes for Westerners who studied in China. Although there are far fewer Westerners who have studied in China and know Mandarin, those few people are coveted for intelligence positions. Can the same be said of Chinese international students in the West?

Click to expand...

I would say that I agree with most of it but I disagree about the Great Recession. There was 2 mains reasons in my mind why China was much better heading into the storm.

1) Chinese saving habit. They know how to control their use of money better and save more.
2) The Government investing a lot of liquidity coming from the trade balance directly in an artificial GDP growth.

Chinese intelligence will likely be outstanding in all fields that yield appreciated profits for China, among them are commercial espionage, industrial espionage, military espionage, diplomatic espionage and knowing all about the warlord factions in their global areas of interest.

Chinese intelligence services is probably decent, and will grow accordingly to be among the top 3 at least by 2040-2050 giving rising resources from China's booming economy.

The bottom line is... $$$ matters, unless you are Israel, and your existence is constantly in peril day by day, lol.

Rowing_Ming said:

Information : Any data collected that haven't been treated

Intelligence : Information that have been analysed, verified and made available in the intelligence cycle.

Most of the time, when people talk about intelligence, we mainly think about collecting informations (like spies, satellites, SIGINT, HUMINT). But the real value comes from what's behind the frontline. Analyst from different background (political sciences, military, engineering, etc) are working with every bit of information available to them to make a finished product called intelligence. Analysts have the most important jobs because they are the one who make the links between information and that will allow that information to become usable in decision making.

The CIA does have a history of some famous intelligence failure : Failure to predict the fall of the Shah in Iran, failure of understand the geo-political and the human network in Afghanistan and Irak. The former KGB was know to have a massive information collecting but never possessed an analytic capabilites even close to what the CIA had, and their worst mistake almost sent the whole world into a nuclear war in 1983, during the Operation Able Archer.

I was told from multiples sources that the higher education system in China isn't too good about teaching student to analyse and I know a lot of chinese students who a studying abroad here in Canada in social sciences or in commerce are having a very hard time writing essay and making link between idea. Does chinese students learn about analytics ? If not, can this be a hinderance of developping a truly capable intelligence organisation ?

So now, where does China stand ? I believe she must have a very large information gathering net, but how about her analytic capabilities ?

Click to expand...

Well that's a matter of perspective because I can say the same for the US. I mentioned in another thread here of how I got into an argument with someone over trade and China. All this guy was doing was repeating sound bites you hear on TV. I was throwing out information from reading a lot beyond just cliche sound bites from TV. And he thought he had more credibility because why? He had a masters in business. He was parroting words that he didn't know the meaning. He'd keep repeating about currency manipulation and I would point out that China's currency value has already increase over 30% of the 40% demanded by the critics. This guy didn't know that because TV tells him that China simply maipulates it currency and that 's what he's repeating. If 40% is the magic number and it's already reached over 30%, has it had any effect and brought jobs back to the US as promised by those that demand it? Apparently no since he and everyone still thinks China has to still adjust 40%.

And what about outsourcing? An analytical mind would see the blame for American jobs being outsourced to China is 100% the fault of the American corporation that chooses to outsource those jobs to take advantage of cheap labor so they can make more money. But those that blame China and other countries for jobs being outsourced think a gun was put to American corporations' heads and were force by these countries to send those jobs. But then that's an act of war. Why hasn't there been a hint of war because these countries have been criminally forcing innocent American corporations to do things against their will and robbing them of all their corporate earnings. Somehow it's the responsibility of other countries to stop American corporations from outsourcing. There's a simpler way. Have Congress pass a law.

Or look at Donald Trump vilifying China for taking away American jobs. Funny since Donald Trump's whole signature line of clothing apparel and anything selling his name as a brand is all made in China. And his excuse is he's willing to have it made in the US and pay more for production but the China price prevents its. Meaning he blames China because he's a cheapskate. Americans have a saying but hypocrites won't recognize it because they usually use it to tell other people who like to blame others for their problems. It's called taking responsibility for your own actions. Trump can pay an American company right now to make his signature line and do all the things he says he would do. This is a guy not afraid of China yet do we see him saying he has gun to his head and is helpless to do anything about it? The big New York tough guy CEO of his billion dollar corporation is not making his own decisions in a company built on making good business decisions to which all goes to his credibility and reputation as a businessman and expert to which he exploits to gain celebrity? And you know why Americans don't see that? Because they don't think and that means they aren't analytical. That guy I was arguing with... his masters degree was worthless because he repeated verbatim what an uneducated person would say about China and trade.

Repeating what others say and not knowing what it means says there's no analytical mind at work.

Does China have capable intelligence analytic capabilites ?
Answering this is very subjective, because no criteria about analyting.
It become more difficult as " intelligence " is added.
I think the flowchart is input, analytic then output.
The input is intelligence information, it is a hidden information, so we don't know the input.
the analytic process is perform by whom? what is he or his background? again we don't know anything.
the output can only be seen obscurely.
So, how can we discuss it?