CV-16 Liaoning (001 carrier) Thread II ...News, Views and operations

[Jeff Head]

ASBMs like the DF-21D are not the game-changers so many misled people think they are. They are just another arrow in the Chinese military's quiver, albeit a fairly tactically significant one as it significantly extends the distance at which US carriers become vulnerable to attack.

There has also never been a live fire, operational test of this system, testing all of the various components together, and never firing it against a moving target out to sea.

They have something...and they show it being deployed.

That does not mean it is effective.

And it is arrayed against the best missile defense on the planet for ships, which defense has been upgraded and tested numerous times successfully against Ballistic Missiles.

So, as I have said for year, the DF-21D is more a Sun Tsu attempt to get the US to somehow be unwilling to utilize their overpowering naval assets...or at least to hesitate and not employ them as effectively as they otherwise could be.

when the Chinese announce such a test out over the PAcific to 1,000 miles from their shores, and then arrange the appropriate targets and the appropriate electonic surveillance vessels to gauge how they do...then I will believe that they have a system that is at least being tested in the manner it would need to be tested if they were serious about it being a fully operational system against active defenses like the US has for its assets.

 

[Iron Man]

There has also never been a live fire, operational test of this system, testing all of the various components together, and never firing it against a moving target out to sea.

The problem with live testing an actively emitting missile is that the (potential) enemy is always listening. If you broadcast your terminal homing radar over the Pacific as you must during a live test, the US military will scoop that information right up and be ready with a nice spoof or counter when the actual bullets start flying. So the PLAN is in a bit of a tough spot live testing this missile, and we may never actually see exactly how effective this missile is unless there is an actual war between the US and China.

So, as I have said for year, the DF-21D is more a Sun Tsu attempt to get the US to somehow be unwilling to utilize their overpowering naval assets...or at least to hesitate and not employ them as effectively as they otherwise could be.

The problem is that a "Sun Tzu attempt" depends directly on how much threat your intended victim perceives you to have. We here speak from ignorance; we have no idea if the PLAN has established a robust kill chain for the DF-21D and if the DF-21D represents a credible threat to a carrier. The USN is presumably far less ignorant on this issue, and will know far better than us whether this missile represents a legitimate threat. If it does not, a DF-21D Sun Tzu attempt would be utterly useless. and the PLAN would know that. Neither the PLAN or the USN are stupid, so my suspicion is that the actual effectiveness of the DF-21D is far less ambiguous than you are giving it credit for.

 

[fatfreddy]

The problem with live testing an actively emitting missile is that the (potential) enemy is always listening. If you broadcast your terminal homing radar over the Pacific as you must during a live test, the US military will scoop that information right up and be ready with a nice spoof or counter when the actual bullets start flying. So the PLAN is in a bit of a tough spot live testing this missile, and we may never actually see exactly how effective this missile is unless there is an actual war between the US and China.


The problem is that a "Sun Tzu attempt" depends directly on how much threat your intended victim perceives you to have. We here speak from ignorance; we have no idea if the PLAN has established a robust kill chain for the DF-21D and if the DF-21D represents a credible threat to a carrier. The USN is presumably far less ignorant on this issue, and will know far better than us whether this missile represents a legitimate threat. If it does not, a DF-21D Sun Tzu attempt would be utterly useless. and the PLAN would know that. Neither the PLAN or the USN are stupid, so my suspicion is that the actual effectiveness of the DF-21D is far less ambiguous than you are giving it credit for.

The point about a "Sun Tzu" moment is the concept of hiding your true capability. While the USN has vast intelligence and more capability we can imagine, I imagine for the same reason, PLAN will take extraordinary attempts to hide the real capability of the DF-21D. So not knowing the "unknown" is itself an effective strategy. USN would prefer not to discover any bad news short of bravado.

 

[Iron Man]

The point about a "Sun Tzu" moment is the concept of hiding your true capability. While the USN has vast intelligence and more capability we can imagine, I imagine for the same reason, PLAN will take extraordinary attempts to hide the real capability of the DF-21D. So not knowing the "unknown" is itself an effective strategy. USN would prefer not to discover any bad news short of bravado.

Again you are speaking from lack of knowledge. The US military knows far more about the DF-21D kill chain than we do, and will definitely have a better idea if this missile stands a chance at hitting a carrier during a conflict. The implication of course is that this missile does actually stand a better chance of hitting a carrier than we have been giving it credit for, otherwise the PLAN has been playing a useless multi-billion dollar charade against an opponent that is not easily fooled.

 

[bruceb1959]

Hi Xian

By allowing the SSBN to transit in plain sight to a place of suitable departure is in fact quite clever....it basically shows that the PLAN will ensure that a SSBN can be delivered to the Pacific whether in plain sight or covertly..but with the escort of a CBG and simply disappear in what ever direction its mission is dedicated to. In the mean time a full surface force can train in ASW chasing any tails and ensuring a clean get away for the SSBN. I would not be surprised if a couple of plan SSNs were a day ahead or so, listening and clearing route.
Basically this understood as a simple training exercise which makes no sense as the two units have no reason to be near each other...or a show of willingness for PLAN SSBNs to get safely to their AOOs

Of course just my thoughts

Roodog

I agree it is common practice for a nuclear boat to escort a carrier group, but an SSN - not an SSBN

 

[Iron Man]

Rather than continuing this discussion, I would venture both of us are speaking with lack of knowledge, You credit USN with more smarts so they would know. I credit PLAN with smarts to hide their capability. Both of us are working on credits.

I have absolutely no idea why you think the Chinese military would want to "hide" the capability of this missile unless it doesn't actually work as advertised. It is to the benefit of the Chinese military to present as great a credible threat as possible in order to more effectively deter a potential US military intervention against China. It is far better for China to achieve a US non-intervention than to 'win' a bloody war against the US because it failed to impress them enough to back down in the beginning. So no, there is no reason to credit the Chinese military with hiding their DF-21D capability.

 

[antiterror13]

I have absolutely no idea why you think the Chinese military would want to "hide" the capability of this missile unless it doesn't actually work as advertised. It is to the benefit of the Chinese military to present as great a credible threat as possible in order to more effectively deter a potential US military intervention against China. It is far better for China to achieve a US non-intervention than to 'win' a bloody war against the US because it failed to impress them enough to back down in the beginning. So no, there is no reason to credit the Chinese military with hiding their DF-21D capability.

There are for sure some areas that you don't know (like all of us), the above area is one of those ... just read Sun Tzu, if you will

If you dont understand something, doesn't meant it was wrong ... unfortunately

 

[Iron Man]

Thats the essence of Sun Tsu strategy. To hide one's capability. Thats what this thread started on.

This is not a sensible response to what I posted. I asked you what reason does the Chinese military have to hide the capability of the DF-21D rather than present it as a credible threat to carriers. You must feel that the DF-21D doesn't actually work and this is what the Chinese military is hiding.

 

[B.I.B.]

This is not a sensible response to what I posted. I asked you what reason does the Chinese military have to hide the capability of the DF-21D rather than present it as a credible threat to carriers. You must feel that the DF-21D doesn't actually work and this is what the Chinese military is hiding.

I take it you don't think it works.

 

[fatfreddy]

This is not a sensible response to what I posted. I asked you what reason does the Chinese military have to hide the capability of the DF-21D rather than present it as a credible threat to carriers. You must feel that the DF-21D doesn't actually work and this is what the Chinese military is hiding.

Not at all, I have no idea if it works or not. I am saying that Sun Tsu's strategy is that you hide your capability from the enemy and keep them guessing. So if you believe in employing those strategies, as apparently some West Point students do, then there is an advantage that you would keep your cards up your sleeve. You may be right, its all a paper tiger and never worked either for a fixed target or a moving target. But in warfare, would you risk an aircraft carrier to find out that its not a paper tiger after all?