CSIS ChinaPower Project

A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
CSIS have a newish site where they provide intelligent analysis on all sorts of things about China. Link below.

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The analyses generally look good, but the economic ones are let down by the fact that they're using old datasets mainly from 2010-2014 from what I can see. It would have been better to use 2016 estimates, as some of the conclusions they draw are already completely obsolete.

Eg. In the period from 2011 to today, China's economy has increased by roughly 50% in exchange rate terms. or the explosive growth in Chinese overseas investments which now means China is the world's largest net foreign investor etc etc
 
D

delft

Brigadier
AndrewS said:
CSIS have a newish site where they provide intelligent analysis on all sorts of things about China. Link below.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The analyses generally look good, but the economic ones are let down by the fact that they're using old datasets mainly from 2010-2014 from what I can see. It would have been better to use 2016 estimates, as some of the conclusions they draw are already completely obsolete.

Eg. In the period from 2011 to today, China's economy has increased by roughly 50% in exchange rate terms. or the explosive growth in Chinese overseas investments which now means China is the world's largest net foreign investor etc etc
Click to expand...
They only look on the military side at the possibilities and problems of invasion. As the internationally recognized legal authority China is in the position of declaring the ports and airports of Taiwan closed which would close down most of Taiwan's economy. China will not do that without a good reason and any reasonable government in Taiwan will avoid giving that reason. With that all talk of invasion is just blah blah.
 
vesicles

vesicles

Colonel
AndrewS said:
CSIS have a newish site where they provide intelligent analysis on all sorts of things about China. Link below.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The analyses generally look good, but the economic ones are let down by the fact that they're using old datasets mainly from 2010-2014 from what I can see. It would have been better to use 2016 estimates, as some of the conclusions they draw are already completely obsolete.

Eg. In the period from 2011 to today, China's economy has increased by roughly 50% in exchange rate terms. or the explosive growth in Chinese overseas investments which now means China is the world's largest net foreign investor etc etc
Click to expand...

I thought it was the norm to use accumulated data from certain period of time for statistical calculations, especially in those analyses of trends. Performance in any single year doesn't carry as much weight.

Plus, how can you use data from 2016 when we are only finishing half of 2016?
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
@vesicles

I thought it was the norm to use accumulated data from certain period of time for statistical calculations, especially in those analyses of trends. Performance in any single year doesn't carry as much weight.

Plus, how can you use data from 2016 when we are only finishing half of 2016?
Click to expand...

It is the norm, but when you're doing an analysis with old numbers, it is always lagging behind with respect to China.

It would be more accurate to use *current* figures as both China and the US release figures on a monthly or quarterly basis, rather than figure from 2 years ago.
 
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