Could mass layoffs in China result in a violent crackdown on unrest by the CCP?

There are plenty other articles online about massive job layoffs in the PRC but here's one:




It is not my intention to incite anti-china rhetoric but to have a reasonable debate of the most probable outcome of recent unrest in the PRC. While violent crackdowns could be a course of action for the Chinese Communist Party; is it a viable one or real possibility? Has the CCP learned its lesson from the 1989 incident? What would the response be from such a crackdown by the international community? I doubt it would be as muted (by governments at least) as the unrest in Tibet was earlier this year.


Perhaps I just worry too much.

Upheavals and downturns can always threaten social unrest. China recognises this, si talking about it and is therefore (we can presume) putting place the layerd strategies and measures to prevent or otherwise deal with it.

China is being honest and talking openly about the danger, can this be said about the Government in the country that you live?

Western Commentators have spent the last decade or more telling us about the danger of China's Banks. In the event, Chinese Banks are doing well and it is there British and American Counterparts that have proved toxic.

Likewise despite the talk about unrest in China it is Greece and Spain that have experienced rioting in the last few days and promted admission from other European Politicians that the trouble could indeed spread to the rest of the continent.

i have to agree with sampan that western "experts" have been telling us for decades now that China is gonna collapse. we just never see it happening.
there has been massive layoffs when China carried out a huge reform privatizing state-owned corporations. the kind of unrest we might see comin up is different from the stuff we saw in 1989 and tibet. those two were planned insurrections with specific political agendas that's why they are so hard to deal with. the one that we are worrying about right now will be for economic and personal agendas. the protestors might be angry about this and that, but they are not gonna risk their personal freedom to get violent. of course it will be a different story if the initial protest is mishandled by the local officials,or ppl with political agenda use this as a disguise to instigate violent insurrections. though this is unlikely to occur nation-wide because it is guaranteed that Beijing has passed down some kind of mandated and order to the local municipalities regarding how to deal with this stuff.

also the unrest would be for economic reasons, not political reasons or angry at the government
the differences already meant the different types of "protest" and responses that'll be held if any

The long awaited downfall will come about, because as the Western press and commentaters have said, a pact exists between the Govt, and its people since the Tien Ah Mien Incident.
THis is where the Govt has undertaken to provide security and prosperity for the people, and in return the people will stay out of politics. or is this just another urban myth, like pre olympics , going around promoting the belief that China was very similar to Nazi Germany.?
Chinas banks are not transparent so we do not really know what losses they are hiding, perhaps all for the better at this stage, but it will come out with another financial meltdown after the world is recovering from this one.

There are many sources of unrest in China, but the sources getting the attention due to the economic downturn are because factory management run away without paying employees their pay, usually several months' worth. The employees are miffed, but they are miffed at the management who cheated them. Of course, this could turn into anger at authorities if the authorities do not take appropriate steps to address the situation.

Anyway, I find it amusing that the management can just run away and disappear. As long as they have paper trails they can be found, or at least forced underground, in China. Companies listed in HK are certainly not out of reach. This is really an enforcement issue--those who cheat employees should be made to pay what is owed.

bladerunner,this pact you speak of exists with every state. in the west we call it "social contract". westerners have gotta do better if they wanna convince anyone that the CCP is as bad as they say, we are too well-educated for this kids stuff.

the truth is, no government is completely transparent in the strict sense. one would think the US is transparent enough,but hey how many of us really saw the sub-mortgage crisis coming when it hit? this transparency thing really is a slippery slope. and i especially wouldnt rely on the westerners to tell me where China is going.

pla101prc said:

bladerunner,this pact you speak of exists with every state. in the west we call it "social contract".

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OK..... So do you think the West's belief of this particular social contract is correct (in other words genuinely reflects the politburos direction) Therefore if the CCP fail they can be persuaded to step aside and let others have a go for the good of the motherland.

bladerunner said:

OK..... So do you think the West's belief of this particular social contract is correct (in other words genuinely reflects the politburos direction) Therefore if the CCP fail they can be persuaded to step aside and let others have a go for the good of the motherland.

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That's how accountability in the PRC goes. In a democratic country, with biparty or multiparty setup, one party can blame the other party for the woes. In the PRC, there is only one party, and no one can blame another party but the Party. Also because the Party is the one that stays in power for the long term, it also has to plan for the long term, and not leave a mess for the other party to clean up.

In the West, what is called "social contract" in China is called the "Mandate of Heaven".

The Mandate of Heaven existed and governed China since Confucius. Thus after thousands of years, it has become ingrained right to the very core of Chinese culture and being Chinese. People may not be conscious of it but always act upon it like their nature. This belief extends to Chinese leadership in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

The CNN article seemed like its as if they've only discovered this incident yesterday. From what i can gather, the riots have been going on for quite awhile. More than anything else, they're not telling the story like it is, rather they're trying to fit the story into their own agenda and sensationalism which being able to cheap shot China whilst screaming out loud that the economy is going to crash.

In general, companies going bankrupt or trying despritely to prevent a bankruptcy would both result in unemployed workers who are angry. It would be seemingly a situation where by the government needs to keep the companies alive whilst increasing jobs to sustain unemployment. Project jobs liked the Three Gorges Dam generated massive amounts of jobs during its construction, and with the planned project of the very tall Shanghai towers, it would generate quite a few jobs. Even university graduates could do these jobs on the side just to get a source of income whilst they find better jobs. IMHO, this would be one of the ways to reduce unemployment and at the same time invest in something the local government would've done anyway in due time. Its just one such example and the construction of infrastructure all over china could improve some poorly serviced areas, improve efficency and generate some jobs to cushion aginest the international influence. Although, this money is going to have to come out of government's pocket, and perhaps they have more worthy investments to make.

Edit- Source on Shanghai Tower

Shanghai Tower (pictured) is located in the Luijiazui Finance and Trade Zone. The project will complete a trio of towers including the adjacent Jin Mao Tower and Shanghai World Financial Center. The building will house Class-A office space, retail, a luxury hotel and cultural venues. Below-grade facilities include retail, connections to the Shanghai Metro and three floors of parking.

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