I know there is a missile thread, but that's more of LACM and BM thread than SAM thread. Anyhow, I'm inspired by the sukhoi thread to post this:
Kuala Lumpur Tempur in English 01 Jan 03 pp 60, 61
Article by Prasun K. Sengupta: "China's KS-1A and FT-2000A air defence systems unveiled"
For a ground-based air defence system to be effective, it must be layered, redundant, robust and operate as an integrated battlespace air defence network. In recent years, countries have been acquiring new-generation, ground-based high- and medium-range air defence systems (HIMADS) that still leave a significant gap in the air defence envelope where 'leakers' can attack manoeuvre forces or vital assets by taking advantage of barrage electronic jamming tactics. Though current HIMADS systems are one of the best thought out and most capable mobile air defence systems yet to come out, they, are extremely expensive and are vulnerable to disruption from S- and C-Band airborne noise and deception jammers, used for the temporary suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) with lethal effect.
A novel solution to this operational handicap is the integration of ground-launched passive anti-radiation missiles (ARM) with the deployed HIMADS assets that will provide hardened air defence. Such ARMs must target and successfully neutralise airborne standoff jammers. Thus, in addition to homing on to radar frequencies, the ground-launched ARM must also incorporate a 'home-on-jam' capability, including the option to home on airborne or land-based jammers which try to disrupt the ever more important GPS navigation system (used by many of the latest precision-guided weapons). This allows the ARMs to be used in three different operational modes, known as Pre-Briefed (PB), Target Of Opportunity (TOO), and Self-Protect (SP). In PB mode, the long range (up to 100km) of ARMs like China's latest and unique surface-launched FT-2000A can be used to launch the missile on a lofted trajectory toward a known threat.
One such ARM is the FT-2000A, developed by the China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CPMIEQ. Its existence was first revealed in mid-1998. The ground-launched ARM can engage airborne jammer aircraft and airborne early warning and control (AEW & Q aircraft. The FT-2000A is transported by and launched from an 8 x 8 cross-country truck, which has four canisters. The launch vehicle is the WS-2400, made by the China Sanjiang Space Group. Its design was influenced by the MAZ series of Russian ballistic missile transporters. In 1997 China obtained those MAZ transporters that were produced in Belarus and formerly used by Soviet SS-20 IRBMs. The China Sanjiang Space Group notes that "it has introduced foreign capital and technology to establish joint ventures with some famous enterprises from ... Belarus". The WS-2400 also forms the basis of the family of transporters that will be used to make China's future DF-31 A and DF-41 land-mobile ICBMs.
An unknown number of the FT-200OAs have already been deployed by the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) air defence forces in Zhangzhou city in Fujian province, where the FT200OAs are co-located along with Russia-made AImazS-300PMU1 SAMs. Both SAM types were mobilised from areas surrounding Beijing to Zhangzhou and Fuzhou, also in Fujian, during major PLA manoeuvres in 1995-1996 and 2001. From the Zhangzhou base, the SAMs are capable of attacking aircraft above Taiwan's Penghu island group and from Fuzhou, they can reach Taiwan's western Hsinchu coast.
The FT-200OKs three-stage missile is derived from CPMIECs proven HQ-2.1 SAM design and is cold-launched. When the missile detects and locks on to the radar or jammer, it can home on the target autonomously at 1,200 metres/second while sustaining a 14 G overload. If the target radar or jammer has been switched off before any lock-on could be acquired, the missile self-destructs. In SP mode, a friendly combat aircrafts radar warning receiver is used to detect enemy emissions. The FT-200OKs Command Launch Computer (CLC) then decides which target to attack, transmits the data to the missile, and then launches the missile. TOO mode means that the seeker of the FT-2000A itself has detected a target, and the missile can be fired manually if the radar or jammer operating between 2 and 8GHZ bandwidth is identified as a threat. The FT-2000A missile has a built-in inertial navigation system, so that whenever it has acquired a lock-on, it will continue towards the target even if the emitter is shut down (although the CEP is larger in this case). When fired in a salvo of two missiles, the FT-2000A has a kill probability of 0.95. The FT-200OKs proximity fuze has an effective range of 35 metres, which goes active when the missile is 5km away from its target.
The FT-2000A has a slant range of 12km to 100km up to an altitude of 18km. It weighs 1,300kg at launch. For the detection and localisation of hostile radar emissions and jammers the FT-2000A makes use of four ground-based Electronic Support Measures (ESM) sensor posts, each of which is mounted on wheeled vehicles and can together track 50 targets simultaneously. The ESM sensor posts are deployed at a distance 30km from each other. The missile launchers are deployed near the central ESM sensor station at a distance of 150 metres. The FT-2000A can also be used in conjunction with surveillance and target acquisition radars of the 3-D non-phased-array type. CPMIEC is now developing an active phased-array radar will be used for fire-control of future variants of the FT2000A. [sentence as published] A complete FT-2000A Battalion consists of a Command Platoon and three Batteries, each equipped with one central ESM sensor station and three auxiliary ESM stations, two power supply vehicles, 12 mobile launchers equipped with missiles in three motorised vehicles (with four launchers each), and 12 transportation and loading vehicles. The FT-2000A can also be deployed as a stand-alone air defence system or deployed as part of another SAM system like CPMIECs KS-1 A medium-range SAM, or MBDA's Jernas E-SHORADS.
Future variants of the FT2000A will incorporate a GPS receivers to greatly increase hit accuracy when radar lock on is lost after emitter switch-off, because GPS guidance will keep the missile within a narrow box towards the last known emitter position. The operational benefits of a combination of the FT-2000A can thus be summarised as follows:
-- It can be integrated with existing E-SHORADS and HIMADS assets like the MBDA Jernas and CPMIEC's KS-1A.
-- It becomes a lethal force multiplier by extending the KS-1A's effective engagement envelope to a distance of 110km.
-- Its completely passive guidance mode and ground-launched capability enable it to successfully engage standoff airborne noise and deception jammers operating in the Cand S-Bands, which until now was impossible.
-- There are no known active or hard-kill countermeasures systems or techniques to the FT-2000A, with the only option being to shut down the radars and jammers that will severely degrade hostile offensive air warfare and SEAD operations.
-- It increases the redundancy of deployed E-SHORADS and HIMADS systems by offering a combination of semi-active and fully passive means of guiding the SAMs to their targets. Its 100% passive target detection and acquisition system can accurately measure the angle, bearing and range coordinates of hostile airborne targets and gives the enemy no early warning at all of an impending interception. Being housed in wheeled all-terrain vehicles, the entire FT-2000A system is highly mobile and can be easily transported and deployed on short notice.
The Kai Shan 1A HIMADS
The KS-11A, presently being offered by CPMIEC to Malaysia and Pakistan, includes a Brigade-level command and control system (BCC) that can handle automatic command and control of three subordinate KS-1A Regiments. In addition, the BCC can also simultaneously control three E-SHORADS launchers and up to 27 air defence artillery gun units. The BCC has two-way secure voice and data communications with the command and control centre at a higher level through a radio communications system. Through the BCC, a kill probability of not less than 90% of small-formation airborne targets (less than four aircraft whose airspeed is not greater than 700metres/second) can be achieved, and more than 90% when the target speed is not greater than 560 metres/second and the intruding airborne target density is not greater than four aircraft a minute. The BCC, including an Air Situation Display console and Tracking Display console, adopts customised BITE technologies, and has embedded simulated training software for engaging more than 100 airborne targets in various flight profiles, all of which can be used for operational training in peacetime.
The KS-1A's HT-233 3-D C band monopulse planar phased array radar, operating in the 300MHz bandwidth, has a detection range of 120km and tracking range of 90km. It can detect targets in azimuth (360 degrees) and elevation (0 to 65 degrees). Coupled to the BCC, it can track some 100 airborne targets and can simultaneously engage more than 50 targets. One KS-1A firing unit can simultaneously engage three targets with six semi-active missiles, and comprises 24 missiles, one HT-233 radar, three power supply vehicles, six wheeled dual-missile launcher vehicles, six missile transporter-loading vehicles, one tractor, one missile test vehicle, three missile transport vehicles, one electronics maintenance vehicle, two tools vehicles, and one power supply vehicle. The single-chamber dual thrust, solid-fuelled missile, weighing 886kg, can engage targets flying as low as 0.5km and as high as 25km, has a slant range of 7km to 50km and a maximum speed of 1,200 metres/second.
Confirmation of these claims came even earlier than the authors expected. Look at the following report.
New York-based Shijie Ribao (World Journal) newspaper, June 24, 2002, p.A7 – "China Serially Produces Hongqi-15 Missile [System] – the King of Air Defense" (with insignificant omissions):
(Information from the newspaper's correspondent in Hong Kong): China earlier imported from Russia the S-300 ADM system, which received the Chinese name Hongqi (HQ)-15. These systems are deployed mostly near the Taiwan Strait and turned into the factor of psychological pressure on Taiwanese military pilots. According to reliable sources, China has already started serial production of the HQ-15, which has become the "king weapon" of Chinese air defense.
Russia's "Military survey" (probably the authoritative "Independent Military Survey" weekly newspaper) recently published the following report: In 1992 China imported from Russia three systems (battalions) of S-300 PMU missile launchers and 144 missiles for them. Later (in 1992-93) seven more improved S-300 systems were imported.
Very rapidly, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) mastered these systems and began missile-launching training. After several training-maneuvers of this kind, in 1994, the PLA became satisfied [with the S-300's performance] and decided to import the production line for S-300 "guochanhua" (serial production from Chinese components).
According to reports available, presently China managed to increase the "guochanhua level" (share of Chinese components) up to 70 percent in the Chinese-made HQ-15 system, i.e., a copy of the S-300 PMU-1. These systems are capable of launching a missile every three seconds and of attacking six different targets at once; the response time of this system is as little as 15 seconds.
The reports of Rosoboronexport corp. (the Russian state-owned weapon export monopoly) indicate that China is producing a renovated variety of the S-300, with improved space characteristics and software; moreover, the modular principle of S-300 design allows the Chinese side to upgrade these systems significantly by substituting a small number of key components.
Presently, S-300 systems (both Russian-made and Chinese-made) deployed near the Taiwan Strait are engaged in tracking Taiwanese Mirage (Mirage-2000) fighters. According to the insiders' information, the introduction of S-300 systems greatly increases China's air defense safety.
After the Kosovo War, the PLA did its best to upgrade its air defense. PLA experts believe that if the Yugoslav army had had S-300 systems, it would have been capable of hitting U.S. military aircraft.
Presently, China and Russia are jointly developing several new ADM systems, particularly the HQ-16. Researchers on both sides jointly worked out the tactical-technological characteristics of this system and are moving ahead with its development.
(end of summary from Russian "military survey" and Shijie Ribao article)
The most evident conclusions
They are as follows:
1) China is now capable of annually producing at least 10 battalions of HQ-15 or S-300 PMU1 ADM systems or maybe an even greater number. Each battalion includes 12 mobile launching platforms with four mobile launchers on a single platform and is capable of launching 48 missiles simultaneously. It also includes several mobile platforms with radars and controlling devices.
Each battalion of this kind effectively protects an airspace inside a circle with about 120-km radius, with an altitude of up to 25 km. The cost of such a battalion, for the PLA, evidently has fallen to about $30 million, while the Russian export price for an S-300 battalion reaches $300 million.
The PLA will be capable, in 2002-2004, of obtaining several dozen HQ-15/S-300 battalions and, consequently, of protecting the entire highly developed eastern coastal zone (which produces up to 60 percent of China's GDP) plus the most important eastern regions of the country.
According to several unconfirmed reports, in 2001 the PLA acquired from Russia several Triumph S-400 ADM launchers, with a range up to 250 km. Evidently, it won't be very difficult for the Chinese side to upgrade the HQ-15/S-300 systems to the S-400 level ("by substituting a small number of key components"), thus greatly expanding the combat potential of the already constructed multi-level air defense network.
An item of particular importance: China is acquiring some components for HQ-15/S-300 systems through the "back door" – the same as components for J-11/SU-27 fighters – from Russian defense plants and army units. For example, at the end of 2001, some sophisticated parts of S-300 systems were stolen in Birobidzhan garrison (about 150 km east of Khabarovsk city), very close to the Chinese border.
So, if necessary, China will upgrade its HQ-15/S-300 systems or increase their production volume even without an official agreement with Moscow.
2) Now one can claim that, very probably, China – by mid-2002 – also started serial production of Tor-M1/HQ-17 systems – very effective mid-range, mid-altitude ADM systems, although their technological level doesn't surpass that of the HQ-15 systems.
Each company of these systems includes four mobile platforms with two missile launchers on a single platform plus an additional radar/command and control platform. How many such companies could the PLA obtain in 2002-2004? Probably hundreds, taking into account their comparatively low cost.
Mid-range, mid-altitude HQ-17 systems are supplementing long-range high-altitude HQ-15 systems and supporting them on the lower level. If an enemy's fighter or cruise missile escapes the HQ-15 missile, then – almost certainly – an HQ-17 missile will hit it.
As mentioned in an earlier article, the "super Tor-M1"/HQ-16 is under joint Chinese-Russian development, probably a rapid one. When this system's development is completed, it would be comparatively easy to upgrade HQ-17 systems in the PLA inventory up to the HQ-16 level. That's because the Tor-M1 design – just like the S-300 one – is based on a modular principle, so the change of a small number of key components will provide a high rise in combat capacity.
3) Finally, let's look to the grimmest part of the picture (after Sept. 11, there is no way to "hide one's head in the sand" and ignore unpleasant realities). In the case of "high-tech limited conflict" around Taiwan – and the PLA during the last several years has actively prepared specifically for this – the losses of U.S. tactical aviation (F-15, F-16, F-18 fighters) could be very high. This would be the result of joint actions of long-range HQ-15/S-300 ADM systems, mid-range HQ-17/Tor-M1 ADM systems and low range missile-artillery Feimeng/Tunguska systems etc.
Kuala Lumpur Tempur in English 01 Jan 03 pp 60, 61
Article by Prasun K. Sengupta: "China's KS-1A and FT-2000A air defence systems unveiled"
For a ground-based air defence system to be effective, it must be layered, redundant, robust and operate as an integrated battlespace air defence network. In recent years, countries have been acquiring new-generation, ground-based high- and medium-range air defence systems (HIMADS) that still leave a significant gap in the air defence envelope where 'leakers' can attack manoeuvre forces or vital assets by taking advantage of barrage electronic jamming tactics. Though current HIMADS systems are one of the best thought out and most capable mobile air defence systems yet to come out, they, are extremely expensive and are vulnerable to disruption from S- and C-Band airborne noise and deception jammers, used for the temporary suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) with lethal effect.
A novel solution to this operational handicap is the integration of ground-launched passive anti-radiation missiles (ARM) with the deployed HIMADS assets that will provide hardened air defence. Such ARMs must target and successfully neutralise airborne standoff jammers. Thus, in addition to homing on to radar frequencies, the ground-launched ARM must also incorporate a 'home-on-jam' capability, including the option to home on airborne or land-based jammers which try to disrupt the ever more important GPS navigation system (used by many of the latest precision-guided weapons). This allows the ARMs to be used in three different operational modes, known as Pre-Briefed (PB), Target Of Opportunity (TOO), and Self-Protect (SP). In PB mode, the long range (up to 100km) of ARMs like China's latest and unique surface-launched FT-2000A can be used to launch the missile on a lofted trajectory toward a known threat.
One such ARM is the FT-2000A, developed by the China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CPMIEQ. Its existence was first revealed in mid-1998. The ground-launched ARM can engage airborne jammer aircraft and airborne early warning and control (AEW & Q aircraft. The FT-2000A is transported by and launched from an 8 x 8 cross-country truck, which has four canisters. The launch vehicle is the WS-2400, made by the China Sanjiang Space Group. Its design was influenced by the MAZ series of Russian ballistic missile transporters. In 1997 China obtained those MAZ transporters that were produced in Belarus and formerly used by Soviet SS-20 IRBMs. The China Sanjiang Space Group notes that "it has introduced foreign capital and technology to establish joint ventures with some famous enterprises from ... Belarus". The WS-2400 also forms the basis of the family of transporters that will be used to make China's future DF-31 A and DF-41 land-mobile ICBMs.
An unknown number of the FT-200OAs have already been deployed by the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) air defence forces in Zhangzhou city in Fujian province, where the FT200OAs are co-located along with Russia-made AImazS-300PMU1 SAMs. Both SAM types were mobilised from areas surrounding Beijing to Zhangzhou and Fuzhou, also in Fujian, during major PLA manoeuvres in 1995-1996 and 2001. From the Zhangzhou base, the SAMs are capable of attacking aircraft above Taiwan's Penghu island group and from Fuzhou, they can reach Taiwan's western Hsinchu coast.
The FT-200OKs three-stage missile is derived from CPMIECs proven HQ-2.1 SAM design and is cold-launched. When the missile detects and locks on to the radar or jammer, it can home on the target autonomously at 1,200 metres/second while sustaining a 14 G overload. If the target radar or jammer has been switched off before any lock-on could be acquired, the missile self-destructs. In SP mode, a friendly combat aircrafts radar warning receiver is used to detect enemy emissions. The FT-200OKs Command Launch Computer (CLC) then decides which target to attack, transmits the data to the missile, and then launches the missile. TOO mode means that the seeker of the FT-2000A itself has detected a target, and the missile can be fired manually if the radar or jammer operating between 2 and 8GHZ bandwidth is identified as a threat. The FT-2000A missile has a built-in inertial navigation system, so that whenever it has acquired a lock-on, it will continue towards the target even if the emitter is shut down (although the CEP is larger in this case). When fired in a salvo of two missiles, the FT-2000A has a kill probability of 0.95. The FT-200OKs proximity fuze has an effective range of 35 metres, which goes active when the missile is 5km away from its target.
The FT-2000A has a slant range of 12km to 100km up to an altitude of 18km. It weighs 1,300kg at launch. For the detection and localisation of hostile radar emissions and jammers the FT-2000A makes use of four ground-based Electronic Support Measures (ESM) sensor posts, each of which is mounted on wheeled vehicles and can together track 50 targets simultaneously. The ESM sensor posts are deployed at a distance 30km from each other. The missile launchers are deployed near the central ESM sensor station at a distance of 150 metres. The FT-2000A can also be used in conjunction with surveillance and target acquisition radars of the 3-D non-phased-array type. CPMIEC is now developing an active phased-array radar will be used for fire-control of future variants of the FT2000A. [sentence as published] A complete FT-2000A Battalion consists of a Command Platoon and three Batteries, each equipped with one central ESM sensor station and three auxiliary ESM stations, two power supply vehicles, 12 mobile launchers equipped with missiles in three motorised vehicles (with four launchers each), and 12 transportation and loading vehicles. The FT-2000A can also be deployed as a stand-alone air defence system or deployed as part of another SAM system like CPMIECs KS-1 A medium-range SAM, or MBDA's Jernas E-SHORADS.
Future variants of the FT2000A will incorporate a GPS receivers to greatly increase hit accuracy when radar lock on is lost after emitter switch-off, because GPS guidance will keep the missile within a narrow box towards the last known emitter position. The operational benefits of a combination of the FT-2000A can thus be summarised as follows:
-- It can be integrated with existing E-SHORADS and HIMADS assets like the MBDA Jernas and CPMIEC's KS-1A.
-- It becomes a lethal force multiplier by extending the KS-1A's effective engagement envelope to a distance of 110km.
-- Its completely passive guidance mode and ground-launched capability enable it to successfully engage standoff airborne noise and deception jammers operating in the Cand S-Bands, which until now was impossible.
-- There are no known active or hard-kill countermeasures systems or techniques to the FT-2000A, with the only option being to shut down the radars and jammers that will severely degrade hostile offensive air warfare and SEAD operations.
-- It increases the redundancy of deployed E-SHORADS and HIMADS systems by offering a combination of semi-active and fully passive means of guiding the SAMs to their targets. Its 100% passive target detection and acquisition system can accurately measure the angle, bearing and range coordinates of hostile airborne targets and gives the enemy no early warning at all of an impending interception. Being housed in wheeled all-terrain vehicles, the entire FT-2000A system is highly mobile and can be easily transported and deployed on short notice.
The Kai Shan 1A HIMADS
The KS-11A, presently being offered by CPMIEC to Malaysia and Pakistan, includes a Brigade-level command and control system (BCC) that can handle automatic command and control of three subordinate KS-1A Regiments. In addition, the BCC can also simultaneously control three E-SHORADS launchers and up to 27 air defence artillery gun units. The BCC has two-way secure voice and data communications with the command and control centre at a higher level through a radio communications system. Through the BCC, a kill probability of not less than 90% of small-formation airborne targets (less than four aircraft whose airspeed is not greater than 700metres/second) can be achieved, and more than 90% when the target speed is not greater than 560 metres/second and the intruding airborne target density is not greater than four aircraft a minute. The BCC, including an Air Situation Display console and Tracking Display console, adopts customised BITE technologies, and has embedded simulated training software for engaging more than 100 airborne targets in various flight profiles, all of which can be used for operational training in peacetime.
The KS-1A's HT-233 3-D C band monopulse planar phased array radar, operating in the 300MHz bandwidth, has a detection range of 120km and tracking range of 90km. It can detect targets in azimuth (360 degrees) and elevation (0 to 65 degrees). Coupled to the BCC, it can track some 100 airborne targets and can simultaneously engage more than 50 targets. One KS-1A firing unit can simultaneously engage three targets with six semi-active missiles, and comprises 24 missiles, one HT-233 radar, three power supply vehicles, six wheeled dual-missile launcher vehicles, six missile transporter-loading vehicles, one tractor, one missile test vehicle, three missile transport vehicles, one electronics maintenance vehicle, two tools vehicles, and one power supply vehicle. The single-chamber dual thrust, solid-fuelled missile, weighing 886kg, can engage targets flying as low as 0.5km and as high as 25km, has a slant range of 7km to 50km and a maximum speed of 1,200 metres/second.
Confirmation of these claims came even earlier than the authors expected. Look at the following report.
New York-based Shijie Ribao (World Journal) newspaper, June 24, 2002, p.A7 – "China Serially Produces Hongqi-15 Missile [System] – the King of Air Defense" (with insignificant omissions):
(Information from the newspaper's correspondent in Hong Kong): China earlier imported from Russia the S-300 ADM system, which received the Chinese name Hongqi (HQ)-15. These systems are deployed mostly near the Taiwan Strait and turned into the factor of psychological pressure on Taiwanese military pilots. According to reliable sources, China has already started serial production of the HQ-15, which has become the "king weapon" of Chinese air defense.
Russia's "Military survey" (probably the authoritative "Independent Military Survey" weekly newspaper) recently published the following report: In 1992 China imported from Russia three systems (battalions) of S-300 PMU missile launchers and 144 missiles for them. Later (in 1992-93) seven more improved S-300 systems were imported.
Very rapidly, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) mastered these systems and began missile-launching training. After several training-maneuvers of this kind, in 1994, the PLA became satisfied [with the S-300's performance] and decided to import the production line for S-300 "guochanhua" (serial production from Chinese components).
According to reports available, presently China managed to increase the "guochanhua level" (share of Chinese components) up to 70 percent in the Chinese-made HQ-15 system, i.e., a copy of the S-300 PMU-1. These systems are capable of launching a missile every three seconds and of attacking six different targets at once; the response time of this system is as little as 15 seconds.
The reports of Rosoboronexport corp. (the Russian state-owned weapon export monopoly) indicate that China is producing a renovated variety of the S-300, with improved space characteristics and software; moreover, the modular principle of S-300 design allows the Chinese side to upgrade these systems significantly by substituting a small number of key components.
Presently, S-300 systems (both Russian-made and Chinese-made) deployed near the Taiwan Strait are engaged in tracking Taiwanese Mirage (Mirage-2000) fighters. According to the insiders' information, the introduction of S-300 systems greatly increases China's air defense safety.
After the Kosovo War, the PLA did its best to upgrade its air defense. PLA experts believe that if the Yugoslav army had had S-300 systems, it would have been capable of hitting U.S. military aircraft.
Presently, China and Russia are jointly developing several new ADM systems, particularly the HQ-16. Researchers on both sides jointly worked out the tactical-technological characteristics of this system and are moving ahead with its development.
(end of summary from Russian "military survey" and Shijie Ribao article)
The most evident conclusions
They are as follows:
1) China is now capable of annually producing at least 10 battalions of HQ-15 or S-300 PMU1 ADM systems or maybe an even greater number. Each battalion includes 12 mobile launching platforms with four mobile launchers on a single platform and is capable of launching 48 missiles simultaneously. It also includes several mobile platforms with radars and controlling devices.
Each battalion of this kind effectively protects an airspace inside a circle with about 120-km radius, with an altitude of up to 25 km. The cost of such a battalion, for the PLA, evidently has fallen to about $30 million, while the Russian export price for an S-300 battalion reaches $300 million.
The PLA will be capable, in 2002-2004, of obtaining several dozen HQ-15/S-300 battalions and, consequently, of protecting the entire highly developed eastern coastal zone (which produces up to 60 percent of China's GDP) plus the most important eastern regions of the country.
According to several unconfirmed reports, in 2001 the PLA acquired from Russia several Triumph S-400 ADM launchers, with a range up to 250 km. Evidently, it won't be very difficult for the Chinese side to upgrade the HQ-15/S-300 systems to the S-400 level ("by substituting a small number of key components"), thus greatly expanding the combat potential of the already constructed multi-level air defense network.
An item of particular importance: China is acquiring some components for HQ-15/S-300 systems through the "back door" – the same as components for J-11/SU-27 fighters – from Russian defense plants and army units. For example, at the end of 2001, some sophisticated parts of S-300 systems were stolen in Birobidzhan garrison (about 150 km east of Khabarovsk city), very close to the Chinese border.
So, if necessary, China will upgrade its HQ-15/S-300 systems or increase their production volume even without an official agreement with Moscow.
2) Now one can claim that, very probably, China – by mid-2002 – also started serial production of Tor-M1/HQ-17 systems – very effective mid-range, mid-altitude ADM systems, although their technological level doesn't surpass that of the HQ-15 systems.
Each company of these systems includes four mobile platforms with two missile launchers on a single platform plus an additional radar/command and control platform. How many such companies could the PLA obtain in 2002-2004? Probably hundreds, taking into account their comparatively low cost.
Mid-range, mid-altitude HQ-17 systems are supplementing long-range high-altitude HQ-15 systems and supporting them on the lower level. If an enemy's fighter or cruise missile escapes the HQ-15 missile, then – almost certainly – an HQ-17 missile will hit it.
As mentioned in an earlier article, the "super Tor-M1"/HQ-16 is under joint Chinese-Russian development, probably a rapid one. When this system's development is completed, it would be comparatively easy to upgrade HQ-17 systems in the PLA inventory up to the HQ-16 level. That's because the Tor-M1 design – just like the S-300 one – is based on a modular principle, so the change of a small number of key components will provide a high rise in combat capacity.
3) Finally, let's look to the grimmest part of the picture (after Sept. 11, there is no way to "hide one's head in the sand" and ignore unpleasant realities). In the case of "high-tech limited conflict" around Taiwan – and the PLA during the last several years has actively prepared specifically for this – the losses of U.S. tactical aviation (F-15, F-16, F-18 fighters) could be very high. This would be the result of joint actions of long-range HQ-15/S-300 ADM systems, mid-range HQ-17/Tor-M1 ADM systems and low range missile-artillery Feimeng/Tunguska systems etc.
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