Chinese purchase of Su-35
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Blackstone
Brigadier
Is China getting ToT on engines and rest of the fighter?
Blackstone
Brigadier
Then why the purchase, given PLAAF already has the J-16?
Hyperwarp
Captain
J-16 plays the attack role like the Su-30MKK for the PLAAF. Need for the Su-35 depends on how urgently PLAAF need replacements. J-11D is supposed to be the Su-35 equivalent but we only seen 2x prototypes so far. So if SAC is slow or having trouble with the J-11D then Su-35 would be needed to fill the gap.
vesicles
Colonel
According to the rumor, China only ordered 24 Su-35. I don't think that's enough to fill in the gap. And it would take many years to complete the order. I don't see how the PLA might get the Su-35 sooner than their own J-16. Even sooner, the gap may not be big enough to worth the money.
The PLA has invested so much money and time in the J-16. I don't think they would have approved the plan to go with the J-16, if they had any doubt on the design. The Su-35 already existed back then. They could just order some. They would have absolutely no problem getting their hands on some Su-35. I don't think they would put the J-16 on hold and switch to the Su-35 at this point.
China is not at war with anyone and is not in any hurry at all for any new weapons system. They take their sweet time and do things in a very methodical manner. We can see this attitude in the future CV-17. Instead of jumping to a new system, they opted to build another Liaoning.
If they have the patience for their humongous CV program, which means they are willing to wait almost another decade for their next gen CV, why are they in such hurry for the J-16?
The most important and urgent goal for China and the PLA is technological independence. They have opted to build almost everything on their own. Even at the beginning when they lagged so much behind, they always wanted ToT to go along with their weapons purchases. That means, even at the very beginning, their goal had always been technological independence. Why would they now go for a complete foreign system, especially when this system is another derivative of the Sukhoi family (something they are very familiar with)?
This purchase makes no sense in terms of actual military and technology values. IF such deal exists, it would have been because of something else.
I'm not arguing about the technological prowess of the Su-35. It is clearly more advanced than China's current Sukhoi planes. What I am arguing is China's strategic goals: technological independence, which eventually leads to technological dominance. The potential Su-35 purchase simply does not fit this goal.
Indeed a never ending story, even if my feeling this time tells me it is true. As such and after some long, long and even for myself controversial consideration on that WHY behind that deal I only can say IMO there are two reasons:
1. a clear political sign in order to confirm the Sino-Russian military and political cooperation regardless all odds ... esp. to bolster Russia's standing in difficult times.
2. the Su-35 provides the PLAAF for the first time with an operational TVC-equipped fighter.
Given the latest reports concerning the AL-31 used by the J-20 is indeed an special customised version based on the AL-31FM2 and even more if this "secret" powerplant is close to the promised 142 kN thrust - exactly what the Su-35's 117S delivers -, then I would even go one further and assume that this engine is de facto a Sino-version of the 117S just without the TVC.
As such their Su-35 will be used to develop and explore operational procedures and tactics and train the first cadre of PLAAF-pilots on TVC-capable flight and -fight.
Just my 2 Cents.
Deino
1. a clear political sign in order to confirm the Sino-Russian military and political cooperation regardless all odds ... esp. to bolster Russia's standing in difficult times.
2. the Su-35 provides the PLAAF for the first time with an operational TVC-equipped fighter.
Given the latest reports concerning the AL-31 used by the J-20 is indeed an special customised version based on the AL-31FM2 and even more if this "secret" powerplant is close to the promised 142 kN thrust - exactly what the Su-35's 117S delivers -, then I would even go one further and assume that this engine is de facto a Sino-version of the 117S just without the TVC.
As such their Su-35 will be used to develop and explore operational procedures and tactics and train the first cadre of PLAAF-pilots on TVC-capable flight and -fight.
Just my 2 Cents.
Deino
b787
Captain
Su-35 supercruises, the engine allows to do something no Chinese fighter currently does and basically no other fighter does in east Asia with the exception of the USAF`s F-22 does .
This gives a longer range due to a larger fuel capacity, a faster fighter in supercruise mode, in Russia some sectors were opposed to the sale, you have to consider, China and Russia are not truly friends, to understand it you have to see the Russian fears that China might claim Siberia in the future.
However some sectors in Russia claim 117 is an old engine because type 30 is the real 5th generation engine.
Russia wanted 48 fighters for China to buy, China wanted 24, the Russians suspect the Chinese want to copy the 117, so they want assurances they will not try to do it, and at least a number to finance the Su-35 program, so there is no Charity in the deal, only suspicions by the Russian side that China might try to copy a jet engine that might reduce the gap with Russia in 10-18 years for the 117 engine and the WS-10, thus reducing future sales, and a Chinese desire to get the most of 24 fighters, since they know they are paying a lot for 48 engines and some extra avionics and materials plus the political consequences of Showing their J-20 is flying with outdated engines and has no chance to catch up with F-22, and same is J-31, which is flying with outdated old MiG-29 engines on a heavier aircraft than Fulcrum
Blackstone
Brigadier
vesicles
Colonel
I have no quarrels with you on the technical capabilities of the Su-35. But that's not what China uses to determine its imports at this point.
So somehow having 24 planes, as opposed to 48, won't allow China to copy the engine design? If China wants to copy the engine, one plane is enough.
And why are the Russians so adamant about the not-copy assurance? I'm sure they know that there is no way they can enforce it. What will they do if China copies the engine? Will the Russians invade China? Is that worth the whole deal?
So it is the Russians who have been dragging the deal... why is everyone getting the opposite message? If the Russians have doubts about the deal, why do they keep announcing "deals" prematurely with such excitement? All these high level Russian officials announcing the deal... so what's the deal?
This sounds so much like a classic case of an over-eager seller. When a potential buyer simply would not show any interest, the seller gets upset and goes "well, I don't want to sell them my awesome goods anyway!" "My goods would have been mistreated in their hands." "I would rather sell them to someone who appreciates my goods".