Chinese purchase of Su-35

kwaigonegin said:

Fair enough. Like have been mentioned hundreds of times no one here can say definitively which way or other.. The best we can do is give our own guesses and odds. For me I give it over 50 and I know many here below but regardless anything less than 100% we're all in the same boat. No one here can say with 100% certainty however no one can say absolute 0% chance of happening either.

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Actually, my post was not ment to support or reject the deal being real or not. I was just trying to remind people here about Mr. Fu's backgroud, therefor take his words with caution. As a matter of fact, I would have posted the same thing if he rejected the deal as real.

Regarding the deal itself, I don't have a take at this stage.

According to

The forecast says the Su-35 is expected to be able to shoot down 2.4 F-35s for every Su-35 lost

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According to the first commentator of the piece:

FYI: the kill ratio '2.4 to 1' came from this report "Submission No. 5: Review of the Defense Annual Report 2010-2011". They used H3MilSim program to get this number.

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For those who are interested, just google "Submission No. 5: Review of the Defense Annual Report 2010-2011", and you can download and read the full report.

I think it's time to stop beating the dead horse of this deal. Russia Air force also ordered 50 Su-35s recently, and they also have a fifth gen. fighter in the pipeline. It's OK for China to order some Su-35s, although J-20 is entering preproduction.

It's being reported that Su35 deliverys are going to take place in Q3 of 2016

Also China has confirmed the deal !?

If so then the question is, apart from the engine what on Su35 is there that China cannot build ?

asif iqbal said:

It's being reported that Su35 deliverys are going to take place in Q3 of 2016

Also China has confirmed the deal !?

If so then the question is, apart from the engine what on Su35 is there that China cannot build ?

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If the reports are to be believed, those Su35 will likely end up with very few key systems of Russian origin. The radar, datalink and communications gear are all rumoured to be Chinese or made compatable with Chinese systems.

The deal may be about unlocking engines for the J20, but that seems unlikely in my view given how long this deal was allowed to drag on for, and the stage the J20 is at now.

Had China really wanted the engines for the J20, this deal would have been signed and deliveries completed years ago. So they could have used the engines early during the J20 testing a phase to incorporate them into the LRIP birds and first serial production models.

To start new engine integration now would push the whole programme at least 2-3 years back, which is, IMHO, unacceptable for what would be just another interim engine anyways.

The Su35 deal is a political deal, far more about China doing Russia a solid rather than because there is any real pressing technological or operational need for the plane from the PLAAF.

I'm sure the PLAAF will make good use of them once delivered, I'm just not convinced they were all that bothered about wanting them in the first place, and probably would rather have spent the money on something else if it was entirely up to them to decide. Hence all the feet dragging and long false starts.

I am of the opinion that the Su-35s will constitute a stop gag advanced A2A measure in the South China Sea theatre before indigenous 5th and 4++ fighters are available en-mass. Let's take a look at the options in the near (meaning 1-2 years) future.

1) J-10B/C: Although several regiments will enter service by 2016-2017, they are medium fighters and comparatively short-legged.
2) J-16: Heavy multi-role fighters optimized for strike.
3) J-11D: Not sure how many regiments are planned.
4) J-20A: Cream of the crop for PLAAF in the near future. Probably won't be used for routine intercept/patrol in the forseeable future since it's considered an assassin's mace weapon.
5) J-31: Not sure how many regiments are planned.

Rumor has it that K2S from Guanzhou will be the first to field the Su-35s. I think I might be onto something.

plawolf said:

If the reports are to be believed, those Su35 will likely end up with very few key systems of Russian origin. The radar, datalink and communications gear are all rumoured to be Chinese or made compatable with Chinese systems.

The deal may be about unlocking engines for the J20, but that seems unlikely in my view given how long this deal was allowed to drag on for, and the stage the J20 is at now.

Had China really wanted the engines for the J20, this deal would have been signed and deliveries completed years ago. So they could have used the engines early during the J20 testing a phase to incorporate them into the LRIP birds and first serial production models.

To start new engine integration now would push the whole programme at least 2-3 years back, which is, IMHO, unacceptable for what would be just another interim engine anyways.

The Su35 deal is a political deal, far more about China doing Russia a solid rather than because there is any real pressing technological or operational need for the plane from the PLAAF.

I'm sure the PLAAF will make good use of them once delivered, I'm just not convinced they were all that bothered about wanting them in the first place, and probably would rather have spent the money on something else if it was entirely up to them to decide. Hence all the feet dragging and long false starts.

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The Su-35 deal will deliver the Su-35s with Russian systems, no radar will be Chinese, it will have Irbis, however it is possible if the Chinese have something better, they might update them with Chinese subsystems even a Chinese radar.

The engines are going to have restrictions too, the maintenance will be very likely being done in Russia (however this is my opinion from what i have read in the past in Russian forums), however the 117 is certified for export, if China wants the engines very likely Russia could sell them, but i do not know they will.

siegecrossbow said:

I am of the opinion that the Su-35s will constitute a stop gag advanced A2A measure in the South China Sea theatre before indigenous 5th and 4++ fighters are available en-mass. Let's take a look at the options in the near (meaning 1-2 years) future.

1) J-10B/C: Although several regiments will enter service by 2016-2017, they are medium fighters and comparatively short-legged.
2) J-16: Heavy multi-role fighters optimized for strike.
3) J-11D: Not sure how many regiments are planned.
4) J-20A: Cream of the crop for PLAAF in the near future. Probably won't be used for routine intercept/patrol in the forseeable future since it's considered an assassin's mace weapon.
5) J-31: Not sure how many regiments are planned.

Rumor has it that K2S from Guanzhou will be the first to field the Su-35s. I think I might be onto something.

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What is K2S from Guanzhou ?
Thanks Siege.


IMHO, ... ... it would be Most--Bang--for--de--Buck if they give all Su-35 and J-20 to all Golden Helmet Champs ( only 47 Champs so far ) to research and develop Comprehensive Combat Dogfighting Manual ( Supermaneuverability & Thrust Vectoring Techniques & EW Jamming Strategy & Setting up Killzone to Bait and Ambush Opfor pilots ) for PLAAF.

Why ?
Because, the Golden Helmet Champs are the most Dedicated, Obsessed--in--pushing--the--Limits, Meticulous, and Think--Outside--the--Box pilots in the PLAAF who are cheerfully and happily working 70+ hours per week.

The Golden Helmet Champs shall be assigned a role similar to Resident of ZhuRiHe Fox Army Brigade to train all the rest of Ambitious, Dedicated, Obsessed, and Meticulous pilots in PLAAF.

There are 3 benefits:

1) the performance quality of PLAAF pilots will be elevated to the next level in the shortest possible time.

2) It is fantastic boost for PLAAF pilots moral and No one will complain about personal stupid Guanxi getting the way of pilots Merit.

3) It is fantastic recruiting tools to motivate all those young PRC citizens who want to get their names in the PRC history book.

===

If a regular PLAAF pilot can handle a 3D Thrust Vectoring Su-35 Golden Helmet pilot in WVR combat environment, then he/she can most definitely handle and obliterate the ( 2D, up & down only * Thrust Vectoring ) opfor pilot in WVR combat environment.

IMHO, all those State of the Art Sensors and Datalinks and Advanced Supersonic A2A Missiles -- will cease to function well under constant heavy interferences from Electronic Warfare Jamming environment performed by peer opfor aircrafts ( KJ-500, KJ-200, J-16D, GX series ). -- Therefore, BVR combat is only applicable to attack non nimble opfor aircrafts such as AWACS, Tankers, and Growler Jammer.

===

NOTE:
Since this is getting off topic, for those would like refute my post, let discuss this further in PLAAF Training thread here:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plaaf-officer-pilot-training-programs.t7248/page-2


or ... ...
Air Combat Supermaneuverability Thread:

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/air-combat-maneuvering-thread.t7932/page-11


Golden Helmet Pilots who are cheerfully and
happily working 70+ hours per week




AWACS + Electronic Warfare Jamming

GreenestGDP said:

What is K2S from Guanzhou ?
Thanks Siege.

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K2S is short for 2nd Independent Regiment, which happens to be one of the elite Air Force Regiments in PLAAF since they face pressure from Taiwan, South East Asia, and occasionally the United States.

siegecrossbow said:

K2S is short for 2nd Independent Regiment, which happens to be one of the elite Air Force Regiments in PLAAF since they face pressure from Taiwan, South East Asia, and occasionally the United States.

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Just to be sure ... it's not an Independent Regiment - as far as I understand - since the independent Regiments were the former recce-regiments, which are now long integrated into the regular units. As far as I know, K2S simply means "2nd. PLAAF-Division" !

siegecrossbow said:

I am of the opinion that the Su-35s will constitute a stop gag advanced A2A measure in the South China Sea theatre before indigenous 5th and 4++ fighters are available en-mass. Let's take a look at the options in the near (meaning 1-2 years) future.

1) J-10B/C: Although several regiments will enter service by 2016-2017, they are medium fighters and comparatively short-legged.
2) J-16: Heavy multi-role fighters optimized for strike.
3) J-11D: Not sure how many regiments are planned.
4) J-20A: Cream of the crop for PLAAF in the near future. Probably won't be used for routine intercept/patrol in the forseeable future since it's considered an assassin's mace weapon.
5) J-31: Not sure how many regiments are planned.

Rumor has it that K2S from Guanzhou will be the first to field the Su-35s. I think I might be onto something.

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Why? What has anyone in the SCS region got that J11s cannot already handle with ease that require Su35s so urgently?

Also, what is the point building all those new bases in the SCS if you do not intend to use them when the proverbal hits the fan? J10s has plenty of range when based on the new islands and is even more of an overkill.

Point is, for anything short term, J11s already have range and is unmatched by anything they might need to face in the SCS, and J10s can be on station in a matter of days or even hours.

Su35s won't be delivered until near the end of the year, and being a new type, will need at least another year or two to achieve operational status. Not exactly top pick for any urgent or short term operational needs.

Odds are the J20 might achieve IOC before the Su35 in PLAAF service.