Chinese purchase of Su-35

kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Assuming this is legit, I'm of the opinion that china wants the su35 because of the 117S/TVC and to a lesser extent the irbis e. 24 is probably the minimum number required for the deal to go through.

The quantity is moot for reasons you guys have highlighted. If china could buy just one they would do so.
 
S

Schumacher

Senior Member
Krabat1976 said:
What puzzle me is the timing of this deal: years ago, before the induction of J10B and J16 would make sense acquire the SU35, but now? Also the number (24) is pretty low to make any difference. .............
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If it's real, the timing part is actually the easiest to explain.
J11D is coming, Russia is facing pressure in Europe & ME, oil price is at multi year low so is the Russian economy.
Russian arms industry is in danger of a death spiral.
Russia keeping the west occupied in Europe is definitely useful to China.
Any one of these situation would have been enough to force Russia to cave to PLA demands. Now we have all of them happening at the same time.
That's why the $80mil price is another joke from the usual Russian source. I'll be very surprised if PLA pays more than $30mil per piece.
 
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kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Schumacher said:
If it's real, the timing part is actually the easiest to explain.
J11D is coming, Russia is facing pressure in Europe & ME, oil price is at multi year low so is the Russian economy.
Any one of these situation would have been enough to force Russia to cave to PLA demands. Now we have all of them happening at the same time.
That's why the $80mil price is another joke from the usual Russian source. I'll be very surprised if PLA pays more than $30mil per piece.
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SU35 cost a lot more than $30m! Russia may be going through some hard times but there is no way they can sell it for $30M.. Especially on something that is not sitting in inventory.
 
S

Schumacher

Senior Member
kwaigonegin said:
SU35 cost a lot more than $30m! Russia may be going through some hard times but there is no way they can sell it for $30M.. Especially on something that is not sitting in inventory.
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Speaking of inventory, we even have rumor now that they will deliver Su35 that were meant for RuAF to PLA. That fits nicely with what I said, Russia desperately needs cash, RuAF desperately don't want Su35 :) .
Don't give me that Russia don't need new arms now, they're facing the most pressure now since the collapse of USSR.
If it's urgency on China's part, they would have signed long ago & in much greater number. They have the cash.
 
kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Schumacher said:
Speaking of inventory, we even have rumor now that they will deliver Su35 that were meant for RuAF to PLA. That fits nicely with what I said, Russia desperately needs cash, RuAF desperately don't want Su35 :) .
Don't give me that Russia don't need new arms now, they're facing the most pressure now since the collapse of USSR.
If it's urgency on China's part, they would have signed long ago & in much greater number. They have the cash.
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Your post is full of contradiction. First of I never said anything about Russia not needing any new arms and secondly I consider su35 to be new. So you're saying Russia desperately need new arms but on the next sentence you say ruaf doesn't want em ?!

Who said anything about urgency? Like you said it's obviously not urgent on China's part that's why the rumor mill has been going on for years. All I know is SU35 cost more than $30M.
 
S

Schumacher

Senior Member
kwaigonegin said:
Your post is full of contradiction. First of I never said anything about Russia not needing any new arms and secondly I consider su35 to be new. So you're saying Russia desperately need new arms but on the next sentence you say ruaf doesn't want em ?!
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Not saying you said it, was just adding on to my earlier points.
Yes, I said RuAF need new arms, not overpriced, over-hyped toys like Su35, so no contradiction.
 
SinoSoldier

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Tyloe said:
If the Su-35 deal is true, its a probably a politicised decision for what Beijing government perceives on threat environment. This was the same when Australia purchased 24 F/A-18Fs as interim fighters even though their first F-35s are arriving in 2018, and had its own share of controversy.

If this is the same for China, then 24 Su-35s were bought as 'interim air-superiority fighters' until the J-20 development is completed and first squadron of J-20s are fully operational. This might also mean J-20 program is going to take longer than first thought since imported Su-35s will take years to be all handed over to the PLAAF. This is all pure speculation, assuming the deal is real with confirmation from the Chinese side.
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The thing is, China does not need to buy Su-35s as an "interim fighter"; their own J-11Ds or J-16s can fill that role just as well, if not better.

The low number of Su-35s involved (24), as well as the rumors that the Chinese are retrofitting them with their own avionics, sensors, and weapons, suggest that the deal is more about the engines, displaying solidarity with Russia, or perhaps a bit of both, rather than due to capability.
 
SinoSoldier

SinoSoldier

Colonel
asif iqbal said:
I think the deal for Su35 is not good for Chinese aviation flanker industry

It brings into question many things

After almost 2 decades they can't match Russian ?
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If that were the case, (1) they wouldn't have purchased a mere 24, and (2) they wouldn't have specifically requested to have their own subsystems, avionics, and weapons, to be installed.

From what we know, the J-11D/J-16 should match or even excel the Su-35S in technical features. Seeing that both types are either in production or about to, it's clear that the Su-35S is not meant to replace or even complement anything.

That is, of course, assuming that the entire deal is true in the first place.
 
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