China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[Ultra]

That sounds reasonable. But will US really attack China? Seriously? Yes, this is the only time, but does it mean US will do it? And China doesn't know it? What is China's plan if your assessment is right that US is planning to do major damage to China?

My prediction - when 2016 does roll around and DPP gets elected - under the table Japan will aggressively push DPP to get independence, and they will give DPP the assurance that Japan will recognize Taiwan's independence or even get a group of nations on Taiwan's behalf to recognize Taiwan's independence - DPP will start the declaration of independence and that will just incense China and trigger the military action to take Taiwan which will just give US the excuse it needed to go to war with China.

China does know this - and I think China have multiple plans in place - it will try give as much support to KMT as much as possible because DPP is never going to compromise with them. And in the event that DPP does get elected in the 2016 presidential election - they will try to negociate with DPP to not directly declare independence, while give them the political incentives (such as more trades) to back away from it. At the same time they will covertly threaten the DPP political leaderships the consequences if they do not accept the "One China" policy.

The problem is this is the card they been playing for the past 20 years and it has been losing its effectiveness every year - majority of the Taiwanese now view KMT as toxic and trades with Chinese are not benefitial to them at all as job losses increases and economy got worse when they open more trades with China. So even if Chinese leadership creates benefitial trade deals to appease the Taiwanese, it will be already too late - its less than a year until the election and the effect of trade deals takes years to be seen.


So, when 2016 rolls around China has two options - either takes Taiwan militarily, or take no action. Taking it militarily will play right into Japanese / American's hand as they want a war with China where they can win. The Chinese political leaderships know this, and they will try to avoid this as much as possible, so the other option is to do nothing - wait it out. Wait until China is strong enough and that will take time - probably another 30 years. The thing is, the best China can do is to wait, play its own game, increase and improve its own development and just bid its time. It is the american and japanese who are itching for a fight now and every day China is growing stronger against them which they see as an existential threat.


This is the reason why American (and the Japanese) are hedging its other bet - by creating a powerful enemy for China to fight with in the future - India. The political and economical shift is starting already - Abe has directed Japanese companies to start moving factories and companies to India while in the US they are cozying up to India like never before - giving Indian the green light for nuclear deals even though they didn't sign the NPT, or selling the Indian military hardwares, and most importantly - trade deals to prop up India economically. They are trying to create another "China" for China to fight with.

 

[delft]

Another thing, have you noticed when Russia actually invaded Ukraine how little the media or thinktanks talk about war with Russia ?? This is because Russia is already too strong for US to take on. Not China though, every little thing China do (like the high sea collision over South China Sea) the US media or think tanks will talk about war against China, and even US government/military don't think much of Chinese military when they do their analysis or reporting which leads to this current difference in attitude when they talk about Russia or China.

Russia didn't actually invade Ukraine. It carefully avoided doing so.

 

[Ultra]

Just a few remarks:
The War Powers Act of the the 1970's says that the US Presidents needs a resolution of the Senate before he can start a war but that act is rarely invoked. Think of the US war against Iran in the '80's when USN destroyed an Iranian Airbus flying in an international air corridor and an Iranian oil production platform in reaction to the Iraqi attack on USS Stark. And think of President Obama asking the permission of the Senate weeks after he started to destroy the Libyan state. The American people are never asked.

These are just small "skirmishes", not war. They amounts to nothing more than a few tactical strikes at foreign countries which american publics don't really care about as there is almost no casualty and zero threat to the mainland US. War with China will be different - it could escalate into a few American cities raze to the ground (which is something the US long term strategists can accept if they win). War with China will require more than a few cruise missiles or airstrikes. It will require almost all of the PACOM (60% of US's forces) and more, something the american president cannot ignore without getting the consent from his constituents.

A DPP government can declare Taiwan independent but it will be sufficient for China, as the Recognized Authority, to declare the ports and airports of the island closed to very severely damage the economy and destroy the standing of the Taiwan government. It can also revoke the registration of Taiwan's civil aircraft and ask its many friends to arrest any Taiwan owned ship in their ports. A difficult problem can so be solved without recourse to war.
The interests of South Korea would suffer immense damage if Abe were to succeed in starting a war against China. The South Korean government knows on which side its bread is buttered and will if necessary take the side of China to prevent such an occurrence.

China to declare Taiwan's ports and airport closed? How do you figure that will work? Taiwanese government DOES NOT take order from PRC you know, and almost all of the countries in the world knows Taiwan is already a country itself which means they will simply ignore China's declaration and continue to trade with Taiwan using its ports and airports. Let's not forget US Japan and the western alliance will get involved and will assure all the countries that Chinese declaration has no effect - just like when China declare its own ADIZ Japan and US and almost everyone did not recognize it. And don't forget that US/Japan and EU depends on Taiwan for many of its high tech semiconductor products so anything that will stop the trade will be seen as a threat to them.

As for the "revoking the registration of Taiwan's civil aircraft" - again, Taiwan is already a world recognized entity (country) itself and every country in the world knows PRC has no authority over Taiwan on this - and I wonder just how many countries in the world will listen to China to arrest citizens of another country on this - except maybe North Korea or Pakistan (and I have doubt that Pakistan will follow such order from China). China has almost zero friend except NK who is willing to do something like this and anger the US and western alliances.

As for South Korea - I think your scenerio is wrong too - South Korea couldn't be happier if China goes into war with Japan or US - there is a huge anti-chinese undercurrent in korean society - even in the north (I read somewhere that Kim Il Sung dislike the Chinese - as seen in his policy that he would rather cozy up to the Russian than Chinese). If war does break out South Korea will probably declare they will sit this one out. They will be happy if China and Japan destroy each other - two of their biggest enemies since ancient time (and this is how they were taught in school - ask any korean children who invaded Korea historically they will say China and Japan).

 

[Ultra]

Russia didn't actually invade Ukraine. It carefully avoided doing so.

You are joking right?

 

[tidalwave]

At the end of day, economics trumps all political and military aspects.
Taiwan , either with KMT or DPP isn't going to rock the boat. Bread-n-butter of Taiwan economy is its high-tech. Look at Taiwan Inc, TSMC, for fist time losing core business. Past few yrs TSMC raked in record high profits from manufacturing high chips for Apple, Qualcomm but Samsung foundry and Global Foundries ramps up and stole Apple chips orders from TSMC.
That would be a fatal blow to TSMC and Taiwan future.

Qualcomm after paying $1billion in fines in China, decides to switch Qualcomm chip production from TSMC to China's SMIC.

As you can, Taiwan Inc, TSMC is losing high end chip production to Samsung and Global foundries and next tier to Mainland rival, SMIC. China ready to pump in $15 Billion investment in semi next 5 yrs to compete.

TSMC livelihood at stake, and that's why they betting the farm to survive. Putting down $12billion for the next level tech to take back order from Samsung, Global Foundries. which is bigger threat to taiwan livelihood than China.

Doesn't matter who's in power,KMT, DPP they ain't going to rock the boat when Taiwan Inc, TSMC is at a crossroad. They could be wiped out by rivals in the future. Btw, Intel wants to jump in to do foundry business, and its talking to Altera, Xilinx folks in US, that would be another blow to TSMC.

Business leaders in Taiwan are nervous at this time to say the least. Government going to charge those Sunflower movement rascals. They know they can't rock the boat with China. They already have enough trouble to deal with Samsung, Global Foundries and Intel which all 3 of them weren't in foundry couple yrs ago, They are serious competitors to Taiwan only very recently.

 

[delft]

A DPP government can declare Taiwan independent but it will be sufficient for China, as the Recognized Authority, to declare the ports and airports of the island closed to very severely damage the economy and destroy the standing of the Taiwan government. It can also revoke the registration of Taiwan's civil aircraft and ask its many friends to arrest any Taiwan owned ship in their ports. A difficult problem can so be solved without recourse to war.

An addition:
For long The Netherlands had produced its own submarines and to keep the yard working while the navy had already enough boats it allowed, some thirty years ago, the export of two boats to Taiwan. China got very angry and convinced the Dutch government that the export of another four boats would be a very bad idea. At the time China had a nominal GDP of a similar size as The Netherlands but still the Dutch capacity to design and build submarines was sacrificed to the commercial relations with China. We can expect that three quarters or more of the countries in the World would comply to such requests as I describe especially as it avoids war.

OT
The Dutch submarine design office was set up after WWI when Germany was not allowed to build or own submarines and its designers were available to The Netherlands.

 

[Equation]

US can effectively put China back 100 years if they want to.

No they can't, China's A2/AD has already proven that. And NO the US will not be fighting China in a war anytime soon even for Taiwan. The American public is already sick of war and the amount of damaged and costs it did to the economy and socially to those families with veterans who suffers from PTSD, lost limbs, and finding jobs for them.

 

[Ultra]

An addition:
For long The Netherlands had produced its own submarines and to keep the yard working while the navy had already enough boats it allowed, some thirty years ago, the export of two boats to Taiwan. China got very angry and convinced the Dutch government that the export of another four boats would be a very bad idea. At the time China had a nominal GDP of a similar size as The Netherlands but still the Dutch capacity to design and build submarines was sacrificed to the commercial relations with China. We can expect that three quarters or more of the countries in the World would comply to such requests as I describe especially as it avoids war.

OT
The Dutch submarine design office was set up after WWI when Germany was not allowed to build or own submarines and its designers were available to The Netherlands.

Not sure about the dutch as that was way before my time - but as I see it it - it is just commerce - China offered more to trade with Dutch than Taiwan could offer. The Dutch accepted it.
What you proposed before its ridicules though - TO ARREST THE CITIZEN OF TAIWAN BY THE ORDER OF CHINA. Most countries in the world would not do so without actual actionable criminal offence when they are part of the INTERPOL.


As for the ports and airports - again, that depends on how much China is willing to pay / trade for other countries to stop trading with Taiwan. I am willing to bet not that many - as China has already tried to isolate Taiwan for the past 30 years and so far they still can't isolate Taiwan economically. America and Japan would definitely not want to see Taiwan to fail economically since it is their best interest to keep Taiwan in their corner as an "unsunkable aircraft carrier just off the coast of China" because Taiwan forms the natural part of 1st island chain which is critical to Japan and America's pacific defense to box-in (cage) China.

 

[Ultra]

No they can't, China's A2/AD has already proven that. And NO the US will not be fighting China in a war anytime soon even for Taiwan. The American public is already sick of war and the amount of damaged and costs it did to the economy and socially to those families with veterans who suffers from PTSD, lost limbs, and finding jobs for them.

You tell me why their media are talking about all those "war with China". I think they are subliminally building up a case and ease the american public in to accepting it.

Like I said before - the US long term strategists (or anyone else) can see that 30 years on China very much will become a super power technologically and militarily - it is a scenerio they don't want it to happen - so the most logical way to prevent China to challenge its supremacy is to act early - to stop your opponent grow stronger to fight you in a war you cannot win.

 

[Zool]

What you proposed before its ridicules though - TO ARREST THE CITIZEN OF TAIWAN BY THE ORDER OF CHINA. Most countries in the world would not do so without actual actionable criminal offence when they are part of the INTERPOL.

Honestly Ultra, after your last few posts, calling someone else ridiculous is the definition of Pot calling Kettle black.

China and the US cannot afford to lose a war between them, which is the very reason why they will not fight one. The cost in every measurable sense is too high. Globally. Your scenario of a 2016 conflagration is itself pretty ridiculous and underestimates the analytical reasoning power of those calling the shots.

Back to the topic of Chinese Military Defense News and the articles you posted - they serve a purpose to shape public opinion and support defense funding in the shadow of a 'Rising China'. And while it's true both countries are competing for influence in the Geopolitcal order, that is far and away from being on the brink of war.

In short, I think you are buying into the spin and messaging a bit too much.