Chinese Engine Development

Schumacher said:

Wow, giving awards, congratulatory messages, universally recognized as actions to celebrate achievements and excellence becomes meaning absolutely nothing ? You may want to try changing the meaning in the dictionary while you're at it.
You can be skeptical and cautious all you want, I'll ask for the reasons. If all you got is 'nothing is guaranteed', I'll call it what it is, being pedantic.
They say & market CJ1000 as comparable to LEAP to equip C919 in the future. Did I say now ? If you're skeptical, I'm interested if you know the performance parameters to cast doubts on their words.

Click to expand...

Did I say absolutely nothing? Sorry, I must've missed it. Next time you should quote me word for word with emphasis in bold.

I don't need to change any definitions to make a point about how platitudes about excellence during an awards ceremony doesn't mean much. You can try to bury and dismiss that awards ceremonies have trumpeted "excellence" for products that later encountered difficulties before, but it won't change that that's happened.

I'm skeptical because we don't have performance parameters. Usually that's how skepticism works, when there's an absence of facts, not a presumption of them. An awards ceremony is good evidence of present events, but not of future ones. The better question is what reason do you have to extrapolate unbridled optimism from an awards ceremony? (the answer is you don't, because, as was the point of my original post, we already know that awards ceremonies don't guarantee the "excellence" that they decorate with).

Anyways. The fact is we've already had examples that directly refute your gushing assertion that the only reason they would declare awards of excellence is if they felt absolutely sure fire that their program will be honky dory from now to forever. I think I've had my say on this one. Good day

latenlazy said:

..........
I'm skeptical because we don't have performance parameters. Usually that's how skepticism works, when there's an absence of facts, not a presumption of them.

Click to expand...

Hmm...that's not how it works.That's simply unprofessional behavior. If you're skeptical and don't have the facts, the right thing to do is to do research or ask. Even something from the net/wiki is better than nothing, which is what you have now. If you don't want to, the professional thing to do is to stay silent.

latenlazy said:

......
An awards ceremony is good evidence of present events, but not of future ones. The better question is what reason do you have to extrapolate unbridled optimism from an awards ceremony? (the answer is you don't, because, as was the point of my original post, we already know that awards ceremonies don't guarantee the "excellence" that they decorate with).

Click to expand...

Good that you agree the logical conclusion is the present status of CJ1000 is well.
As for the future, nothing is guaranteed, I'll take their words about their future schedule over yours anyday until any setbacks happen or when you can provide more substance to back up your skepticism.
You sure can keep your skepticism and opinions, I'm just more interested in those backed by facts.

To be fair, imo, the award is for the milestone that the team has reached. To merit an award, it's probably a milestone that is critical to a final successful outcome, and require the team to pass engineering tests on a number of critical components. It won't be like the team has only come out with some fanciful theoretical work that so impresses the officials that they feel compelled to give an early award just for the propaganda.

Schumacher said:

Did I say 'every' ?

Click to expand...

Well if you didn't mean every PR event would give us that information, then your argument is weakened, isn't it, seeing as we're discussing the usefulness of PR events in general.

Yes, it's established you don't have specifics. Yours is just a general claim that can apply to almost any future complex unknowns, which is fine. All I'm doing is describing what you say as pedantic and one lacking in substance.
Don't think this is between you and me. You're casting doubts on people who put billions where their mouth is & know much more than you. When asking for specifics, I just want to know how much you're putting where your mouth is just so to decide which side to take more seriously.

Click to expand...

You see what I'm saying as pedantic, I see what I'm saying as necessary caution.

And yes, I'm casting doubt, because past projects both in China and abroad have faced challenges and delays as well, and we should try to be realistic about the prospects of this project.
What am I putting in my mouth? Very little. I'm just saying that we should be wary and consider that they will likely face substantial difficulties as they progress further into advanced development, based on past experience in China and experience of other advanced engine makers abroad. If you think the likelihood of such a thing occurring is unacceptably low and there is no logic to support this idea then I really don't know what will convince you.

If you want to believe that they're going to breeze through development without any major issues or delays then that is your prerogative, but I'd prefer a bit more realism even if it means being a bit of a buzz kill.

Quickie said:

To be fair, imo, the award is for the milestone that the team has reached. To merit an award, it's a probably a milestone that is critical to a final successful outcome, and require the team to pass engineering tests on a number of critical components. It won't be like the team has only come out with some fanciful theoretical work that so impresses the officials that they feel compelled to give an early award just for the propaganda.

Click to expand...

The point I'm more suggesting is that even marking a successful milestone may not mean too much as the more significant challenges seem to pop up in more advanced development and testing.
Which is why this whole thing began -- to say that we shouldn't assume it will be smooth sailing onwards just because of early successes, and to add a bit of caution for CJ-1000's development prospects.

Bltizo said:

Well if you didn't mean every PR event would give us that information, then your argument is weakened, isn't it, seeing as we're discussing the usefulness of PR events in general.

Click to expand...

Good grief. If they give out the info like schedule at the PR event, then we would have the info wouldn't it ? If no info at all is given out in another PR, we would have no info.

friend : hey bltizo, don't eat from the trash ! You'll get sick.
bltizo : do you guarantee 'every' time I eat and 'every' thing from there will make me sick.
friend : but ........
bltizo : well, then your argument is weakened. ( proceeding to eat from trash.)

Please think before typing ok ?

Bltizo said:

You see what I'm saying as pedantic, I see what I'm saying as necessary caution.
.............

Click to expand...

LOL .... there are words to describe types like you in school or work.
Everyone is celebrating a major milestone in a big project. The smart guys who contributed are congratulated.
Another smart guy speak up, "hang on, here're my research data. It suggests we should be more cautious going forward."
The boss pat him on the back and thank him for the data. Everyone goes back to celebration.
Seeing this and wanting attention too, another not so smart guy says "I too think we should be cautious."
Silent stare from everyone, waiting for his inputs. He says "You know, we can't see into the future. It's a big project. A lot of things can happen." ( Feeling very good about himself, everyone else goes back to the party).

Schumacher said:

Good grief. If they give out the info like schedule at the PR event, then we would have the info wouldn't it ? If no info at all is given out in another PR, we would have no info.

friend : hey bltizo, don't eat from the trash ! You'll get sick.
bltizo : do you guarantee 'every' time I eat and 'every' thing from there will make me sick.
friend : but ........
bltizo : well, then your argument is weakened. ( proceeding to eat from trash.)

Please think before typing ok ?

Click to expand...

I think you should re-read your previous post, where you said: "PLA or Chinese major state firm PR are in fact excellent source of info, more so than even many 'leaks'. They don't give specifics but paints a good big picture view. If they have problems, they'll say they have problems but usually only after it's fixed and they give awards to those who fixed it. "

So yes, in the above, any reasonable person would interpret your statement to mean that any major problems that they face would be announced through PR events. I am challenging that view.

If you are saying that we only sometimes occasionally might get knowledge of problems that they've faced from PR events, then I can agree with that statement but in that case the overall argument for the usefulness of PR events also reduces.

LOL .... there are words to describe types like you in school or work.
Everyone is celebrating a major milestone in a big project. The smart guys who contributed are congratulated.
Another smart guy speak up, "hang on, here're my research data. It suggests we should be more cautious going forward."
The boss pat him on the back and thank him for the data. Everyone goes back to celebration.
Seeing this and wanting attention too, another not so smart guy says "I too think we should be cautious."
Silent stare from everyone, waiting for his inputs. He says "You know, we can't see into the future. It's a big project. A lot of things can happen." ( Feeling very good about himself, everyone else goes back to the party).

Click to expand...

Nice analogy, but it's wrong.
I'm a little more socially competent than how you describe the "another smart guy" -- I'll create for you a similar, but different scenario:

Everyone is celebrating a major, early milestone in a big project. The smart guys who contributed are congratulated.
The party finishes. The "another smart guy" doesn't make any statements during the party to bring down people's mood because the point of the party is to celebrate the early milestone, and because he is not socially retarded.
After the party, the "another smart guy" and a colleague who we shall describe as "excessively optimistic colleague" get into a taxi together to go home. The "excessively optimistic colleague" goes on to excitedly state how well the project is going at the current stage. The "another smart guy" then states that current early progress may not mean very much, because based on his knowledge of how similar projects in the company in the past have run, and how similar projects in other more advanced companies have run, it is likely the dates and goals of their current project will likely slip or at least face significant challenges once they get to advanced development, and that they should progress forward with caution.
The "excessively optimistic colleague" takes the statement very personally and accuses the "another smart guy" of being pedantic, unnecessarily being a downer, and makes a few personal attacks towards "another smart guy".

Bltizo said:

I think you should re-read your previous post, where you said: "PLA or Chinese major state firm PR are in fact excellent source of info, more so than even many 'leaks'. They don't give specifics but paints a good big picture view. If they have problems, they'll say they have problems but usually only after it's fixed and they give awards to those who fixed it. "

So yes, in the above, any reasonable person would interpret your statement to mean that any major problems that they face would be announced through PR events. I am challenging that view.
...........

Click to expand...

So my use of 'excellent' led you to say I meant they will announce 'all' info at PR events ? LOL
He's an 'excellent' scientist, so he'll get 'every' experiments right ?
Nothing is perfect, nobody gets 'all' thing right. Should we ditch the word 'excellent' from English ? You know perfectly well what I mean, you're just playing with the word to say I meant 'all' just so you can say you 'weakened' my argument. LOL
My friend, do you need to resort to this ?
Here's a tip, the right way to weaken my argument is go look at past major PR & find out if their info comes true. Then we'll talk.

Bltizo said:

Nice analogy, but it's wrong.
I'm a little more socially competent than how you describe the "another smart guy" -- I'll create for you a similar, but different scenario:...........

Click to expand...

Hmm .... I'm not attacking the 'another smart guy'. Trust me, I'm not saying you're like him.
It's the 'not so smart guy' I'm getting at.
The another smart guy is right to raise questions 'backed up by substance'. Forget about niceties like waiting after the party, none will take offence. That's how pros work. What annoys them is substance-less mumbo jumbo.

Schumacher said:

So my use of 'excellent' led you to say I meant they will announce 'all' info at PR events ? LOL
He's an 'excellent' scientist, so he'll get 'every' experiments right ?
Nothing is perfect, nobody gets 'all' thing right. Should we ditch the word 'excellent' from English ? You know perfectly well what I mean, you're just playing with the word to say I meant 'all' just so you can say you 'weakened' my argument. LOL
My friend, do you need to resort to this ?
Here's a tip, the right way to weaken my argument is go look at past major PR & find out if their info comes true. Then we'll talk.

Click to expand...

I've been here as long as you have, we've both seen the sheer variety of PR statements and events surrounding various projects. Some are very useful and illuminating, while there are also many which are useless and shed no light on anything.

It would have been more correct for you to say "sometimes PR can be a good source of info". If that is what you meant, then I have no qualms about this issue.

(and yes, in the scope of our discussion, the phrasing of your original statement was quite important)

Hmm .... I'm not attacking the 'another smart guy'. Trust me, I'm not saying you're like him.
It's the 'not so smart guy' I'm getting at.
The another smart guy is right to raise questions 'backed up by substance'. Forget about niceties like waiting after the party, none will take offence. That's how pros work. What annoys them is substance-less mumbo jumbo.

Click to expand...

It seems that what you are irritated at, is the notion that CJ-1000 will likely face challenges and delays in its development cycle.
My original position, and my current position now, is simply to caution against being too optimistic about the project's future development once it is past this early stage.

It is not an ambitious position, nor is it a specific one, and the logic behind the caution is well founded -- as I've stated repeatedly, China has faced substantial difficulties in developing turbofans in its past, and even advanced western companies have faced delays in their new projects as well. Now China is trying to develop a top end commercial turbofan indigenously. I think all this together makes my suggestion that we should be cautious about the CJ-1000's future development, to be a very reasonable statement.

Guys, it's not that big of a disagreement. It's just that some guys are more optimistic and some are more cautious. Let's move on.

Back on engines, here are supposedly two types of WS-10 engine comparison by seavon of CJDBY.







The last one is the so call "Black Taihang"