Chinese Economics Thread

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China Focus: Consumption upgrade bolsters economic growth
Xinhua| 2019-03-11 23:28:35

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As usual, Zeng Quande's birthday party this year was full of foreign flavors, such as German beer, Russian wine and Belgium candy. The white-collar worker in southwest China's Chongqing municipality had bought them at a local exhibition and trade center for bonded commodities.

"Our generation has become accustomed to buying foreign products. The center is convenient for consumers," said Zeng, a bank clerk. The center Zeng visits frequently has 35,000 types of commodities imported from 40 countries and regions, through China-Europe container trains, ships and other means.

After 40 years of reform and opening up, for Chinese citizens like Zeng, it is no longer a luxury to purchase foreign-brand food, wine, cosmetics, and smartphones, owing to booming e-commerce, fast logistics, more imports and growing income.

Consumer spending contributed 76.2 percent to China's GDP growth last year, making it the largest driver of the country's economic growth for six years in a row. And the trend is expected to continue with a slew of support measures ranging from individual income tax cuts to developing elderly and child care sectors, and to preferential policies on the purchase of new-energy vehicles.

The country will use a combination of measures to increase urban and rural personal incomes, boost capacity for consumption and use multiple avenues to increase the supply of quality products and services, according to the government work report delivered to the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, on March 5.

In February, Danish toy giant Lego opened a flagship outlet in Beijing's Wangfujing shopping area, its third such store on the Chinese mainland. The Chinese market registered strong double-digit revenue growth in 2018 as the firm expanded business in more cities and on e-commerce, as well as digital and physical platforms.

"China is creating new models to make consumption more convenient and meet the diversified demands of consumers," said Zhao Ping from the research department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade.

To stimulate consumption of goods and services, big cities like Beijing and Shanghai have rolled out plans and policies to expand and upgrade commerce facilities, such as building more suburban boutique hotels and shopping malls, and hosting domestic and international expos.

Beijing will upgrade key shopping streets such as Wangfujing, boost fashion consumption and encourage the debut of global products in the city.

The city also plans to construct shopping centers near airports, and promote winter sports consumption along with the hosting of the 2022 Winter Olympics, according to the city's development and reform commission.

Shanghai will also build novel and world-class shopping streets and make the city a favorite choice for consumers to buy products from high-end brands, according to the business hub's action plan for boosting consumption from 2018 to 2020.

"With a domestic market and a population of nearly 1.4 billion, China has incomparable advantages in economic growth," said Chen Lifen, a researcher with the Ministry of Commerce.

Last year, retail sales, a main gauge of consumption, rose 9 percent from one year earlier, down from 10.2 percent in 2017. But sales of many kinds of quality products increased remarkably, a clear sign of consumption upgrade.

For example, China's imports of cosmetic products and aquatic products increased by 67.5 percent and 39.9 percent respectively last year, according to customs data.

The volume of China's household electric appliances reached 810.4 billion yuan (about 120.6 billion U.S. dollars) in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percent, according to a report jointly released by the China Household Electric Appliance Research Institute and the National Household Appliance Industry Information Center.

Despite the slight growth, Chinese consumers show a growing demand for high-end home appliances. For instance, the retail sales share of smart washing machines expanded to 39.8 percent last year, according to the National Household Appliance Industry Information Center.

Consumption and industrial upgrades have become the new driver of growth in the home appliance sector, said Song Jingxue, head of the research department of the center.

Last year, China's per capita disposable personal income grew by 6.5 percent in real terms. The threshold for individual income tax was raised and six special additional deductions created, including for child education and treatment for serious diseases. This benefits approximately 80 million taxpayers.

Among this year's main projected targets, the government aims to create over 11 million new urban jobs and ensure personal income growth is basically in step with economic growth. The government will adopt an employment-first policy this year.

Job fairs for college graduates and migrant workers have been held in different places in the past two weeks.

"A lot of jobs are offered, but some posts demand work experience. So there are both opportunities and challenges," said Ji Yongxiang, a graduate in accounting from Hebei Agricultural University at a job fair in Cangzhou, a coastal city of Hebei Province.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
It’s what they didn’t say – phrases dropped from ‘two sessions’ point to easing of China’s property curbs, according to analysts

• No mention of Xi Jinping’s famous ‘houses are for living in, not for speculation’ in Government Work Report signals policy change, say analysts

Updated: 7:26pm, 12 Mar, 2019

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President Xi Jinping famously declared in 2017 that “houses are for living in, not for speculation”. The phrase immediately made its way into all official property policy, underpinning measures aimed at reining in China’s runaway house prices.

Fast forward to 2019 and things have changed.

Xi’s mantra was notably missing from a closely-watched economic report at this year’s legislative meetings in Beijing, as was any mention of a government pledge “to curb the rise of home prices”, first officially mooted last July.

The omission of such phrases from carefully worded scripts at the annual “two sessions” has given rise to hope that Beijing may be loosening its tight grip on the property sector.

“The expectation of easing has been reinforced by the report. We believe national sales are likely to fall from a high base last year, but home prices in first-tier cities could rebound,” said Tianfeng Securities property analyst Chen Tiancheng.

“Local governments have more incentives to loosen control under bigger fiscal pressure.”

Under China’s system of categorising cities, first-tier refers to those with vast populations and economic output, like Beijing and Shanghai.

Revenue from land sales in 100 Chinese cities has sunk so far this year, Chen noted.

“The main takeaway from the report is that the policy uncertainties overhanging the property sector have been removed. It offers enough room for local governments to adjust their policies. We can expect a better market down the road,” said Eric Zhang, a property analyst with investment bank CICC.

The bank has consequently raised its outlook for the market this year. It now expects national sales volume to drop 7 per cent, less than a previous forecast of 10 per cent, while it now sees sales value declining 4 per cent, versus 10 per cent before. The fundamentals will bottom out no later than the end of the second quarter, it predicts.

The direction of Beijing’s policy has been watched closely amid concern that a sluggish property market could weigh on the slowing economy. The contracted sales of China’s 100 largest developers fell 11 per cent in February, after an 8.6 per cent slide in January.

After more than 10 cities marginally eased their restrictions – for example, lowering the threshold for residency permits in December – market-watchers are looking for signs of bolder moves to unwind some of the more critical curbs, such as minimum down payments on property.

Analysts are less sanguine about that.

Sabrina We, head of research for north China at estate agent Cushman & Wakefield, said that though local governments are being given more leeway to adjust their policies, they will also be held accountable for any major volatility.

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“The grand goal is a stable economy, a stable property market. So any high inflation is also not tolerable,” she said.

Toni Ho, a property analyst with RHB OSK Securities, said Beijing’s tone has become less hawkish compared to just six months ago, but property fundamentals have not changed enough to justify significant reversal of cooling measures. The poor start to the year is not an accurate barometer, because of the Lunar New Year holiday factor, and policymaker will monitor the coming months’ performance for cues.

“There will be more opportunities in tier 1 and 2 cities this year, not because there will be big easing there, but because when the market sentiment cools, those big cities will be a safe heaven,” he said.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

There is a lot of critic recently about the Chinese GDP some say it is only half of the stated number.But one thing is certain people life is getting better one village at a time Here is one of those village a moving story BTW it is in Tibet the eternal condemnation by western media and analyst But those people does not live in Tibet. Medog is the last county in China that is connected with road to the outside world

Kelsang Dekyi, an

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deputy and a teacher from Medog county in China's Tibet, shared her story about the changes in her school in the once "roadless" county.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Economic Watch: Chinese economy kicks off 2019 on a stable note
Xinhua| 2019-03-14 20:57:08

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The beginning of 2019 offered fresh evidence of a stabilizing Chinese economy with economic data for the first two months showing resilience and progress.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday unveiled a string of economic indicators in Jan.-Feb., showing a pick-up in investment, stable consumer spending, and optimized industrial structure.

Fixed-asset investment, a major growth driver, grew 6.1 percent year on year in the first two months of 2019, 0.2 percentage points higher than that recorded in 2018. The growth has maintained an upward trend since last September.

Retail sales of consumer goods, an indicator of consumption, rose 8.2 percent year on year in the first two months of the year, flat with that in December.

Industrial output expanded 5.3 percent year on year in the first two months, narrowing from 5.7 percent growth in December 2018, with fast growth in emerging industries and new products.

"The national economy in the first two months of this year continued to remain stable while making progress," NBS spokesperson Mao Shengyong told a press conference, noting the economy performed within a reasonable range.

Mao said readings of Thursday's data showed some bright spots in the Chinese economy, including rising domestic demand, optimized industrial structure, stable employment and consumer prices and positive market expectation.

The investment in the tertiary industry expanded 6.5 percent in the past two months, picking up pace from the 5.5-percent increase in 2018.

After deducting price factors, retail sales of consumer goods grew 7.1 percent in real terms, accelerating from December's 6.6-percent rise, a sign of rising domestic demand.

Meanwhile, the industrial structure continued to improve. Production in strategic emerging industries maintained fast expansion, with its output increasing by 10.1 percent, 4.8 percentage points higher than the general industrial output growth.

The output of new energy vehicles saw a surge of 53.3 percent year on year during the period, while solar cell production rose by 13.5 percent.

Investment in high-tech industries and industrial technology improvement jumped 8.6 percent and 19.5 percent year-on-year, both faster than the overall growth of fixed asset investment.

China's consumer confidence index edged up 2.3 points to 126 in February from January, pointing to a positive outlook of market expectation.

Despite mounting external uncertainties, Thursday's data was the latest in a slew of economic barometers that showed resilience and progress in the Chinese economy.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector came in at 49.5 in January, slightly up from 49.4 in December last year, offering fresh signs of stabilization.

The growth in China's foreign trade of goods rebounded strongly after the week-long Spring Festival. In the first eight days of March, the country's foreign trade soared 24.7 percent year on year, with exports rising nearly 40 percent.

Admitting the downward pressure for the Chinese economy, Mao is confident that China can maintain stable and healthy economic growth this year with the solid implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment policies.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The same teacher recounting the change that occurred in Medog county in Tibet She in Monpa a Tibetan tribe
Kelsang Dekyid, a teacher in Medog County of China’s Tibetan Autonomous Region, has been teaching there for 17 years. She started to receive more students in 2013 after new roads were built.

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[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China will not let economy slide out of proper range: premier
Xinhua| 2019-03-15 12:56:22

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China's adoption of a GDP target range this year is consistent with the government's determination of not allowing major economic indicators to slide out of the proper range, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Friday.

The 6-6.5 percent GDP growth target for 2019 is compatible with the GDP expansion of 6.6 percent achieved last year, Li told a press conference after the closing of the annual legislative session, adding that the new target has sent a message of stability to the market.

Li said the downward adjustment of the GDP growth target was made against the backdrop of a slowing global economy, as several international organizations have recently lowered their forecasts for global growth this year.

The 6.6-percent GDP growth rate in 2018 did not come by easily, and the 6-6.5 percent target is going to be a growth on top of a very large base figure, according to Li. "Keeping steady growth of China's economy in itself is an important progress."

Li pointed out that a deluge of stimulus is not a viable option as it might work in the short run, but may lead to future problems, and China's choice is "to energize market players to counter the downward pressure."

China has over 100 million market entities, whose vitality will create incalculable energy once fully unleashed, Li said, reiterating that China will continue to cut taxes and fees, streamline administration, foster new drivers of growth, broaden market access, and level the playing field for all market players.

Li said China has policy room reserved for dealing with possible uncertainties this year such as raising the deficit-to-GDP ratio, or using other instruments like required reserve ratios and interest rates.

"We are not going for monetary easing, but trying to provide effective support to the real economy," Li said.

Facing whatever new circumstances, China will stay firmly grounded in its realities and take a long term view to keep its economic growth stable, and the sound momentum of economic development unchanged for the long run, according to Li.

"China's economy will remain an important anchor of stability for the global economy," Li added.

 

[Jura The idiot]

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Li Keqiang says it’s time for Chinese government to ‘turn the blade inward’ to boost jobs growth

• Premier promises 11 million new jobs as Beijing tries to ensure social stability
• Tax cuts and reduced red tape planned to help private firms

Published: 10:00pm, 15 Mar, 2019

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China has pledged to create more than 11 million new jobs this year – equivalent to the population of Belgium and more than that of Hong Kong – as it tries to ensure social stability amid an economic slowdown and rising tensions with foreign countries.

Wrapping up the annual legislative sessions on Friday, Premier Li Keqiang said Beijing was aware of the downward pressure from the economy, with GDP growth slowing to 6.6 per cent last year – its weakest pace since 1990.

But he ruled out any significant quantitative easing measures to flood the economy with money as Beijing did a decade ago, saying the slowdown would be countered this time by reducing taxes to help private companies – especially small and medium-sized ones – and cutting red tape.

“Large-scale tax and fee reduction means we will be touching the government’s own interest, cutting into our own flesh,” Li said during his annual press conference after the National People’s Congress meetings finished in Beijing.

Li said governments at all levels would have to make bold and courageous sacrifices, “turning the blade inward” and “cutting our own wrists” so that China could carry out the measures.

The premier has said that China aimed to save 2 trillion yuan (US$297.56 billion) this year for corporate taxpayers by lowering value-added tax (VAT) and their social security payments for employees.

VAT for manufacturers will be lowered by 3 percentage points to 13 per cent. For construction and transport companies, the VAT rate will be cut by 1 percentage point to 9 per cent. The service sector rate will remain unchanged at 6 per cent, according to the annual

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delivered by Li last week.
It is not known when the new tax rates will take effect, but analysts said they expected them to begin soon.

On Friday, Li said government belt-tightening was the solution. “We will not only reduce spending in the public budget, we will also ask specific financial institutions and state-owned enterprises to contribute more of their profits to the state coffers,” he said.

Tang Jianwei, chief macro analyst with the Bank of Communications, said implementation at the local level would be vital for the tax cut plan.

“It could also be an opportunity to force local governments to make changes,” Tang said. “According to my own study of government expenditure last year, there is room to make spending cuts of 2 trillion yuan.”

The measures are aimed at boosting employment – an important area for ensuring social stability – and it is the first time Beijing has given jobs growth the same prominence as its monetary and fiscal policies in managing the economy.

“We will ensure more than 11 million new jobs are created this year,” he said. “Actually, we hope the number will be the same as it was last year – which was 13 million [new jobs].”

Li said employment was the most important factor in keeping economic growth in a “reasonable range”. The target for this year has been set at between

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.

With the number of fresh university graduates expected to hit a record high of 8.34 million this year, China is facing the challenge of creating enough jobs for them during a
...

... I better don't repost the rest

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
19:58, 17-Mar-2019
China's employment stable despite higher monthly jobless rate

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China's employment remained stable despite a higher jobless rate in January and February, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in January and 5.3 percent in February, up 0.1 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points year on year, respectively, and higher than the 4.9-percent level recorded in December, the NBS data showed.

The levels remained below the around-5.5 percent target set by the government for 2019, with employment expected to improve in the coming months, according to Li Xiru, head of the department of population and employment at the NBS.

In an NBS statement, Li attributed the higher rate to reduced jobs at some export firms due to weakening external demand and seasonal disruptions around the Spring Festival, which fell on February 5.

"Many Chinese workers, especially migrant workers, quit their jobs before the festival and now seek new jobs. This often bringing the jobless rate higher during the period," Li said.

Most companies had their job positions refilled normally after the festival, as shown by an NBS survey in 22 provincial regions, reflecting overall stability in the job market.

Meanwhile, 1.74 million new jobs were created in cities in January and February, a relatively high level, according to Li.

As the government's supportive measures come into force and the seasonal effect phases out, the employment situation will improve in the future, the official predicted.

Policy makers have taken an array of measures to ensure a stable job market, including insurance payment rebate for employers, government subsidies on skills training, and bigger tax cuts. Favorable policies were also given to people setting up their own businesses.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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Dolce & Gabbana Is Still Paying for Insulting Chinese Women
Being shunned in the mainland market could be fatal for the brand.
By
Robert Williams
@RobW_UMore stories by Robert Williams
From the red carpets of Hollywood award shows to the catwalks of Paris and Milan, where throngs of photographers chase Instagram-worthy shots of actors, pop stars, and style bloggers sporting the latest look, winter is the season when Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Versace, and other luxury brands make a big business of being in the spotlight.

One name has been notably absent from this year’s glamour parade: Dolce & Gabbana. The iconic Italian brand is still struggling to overcome a backlash that erupted in November over a tone-deaf marketing video and derogatory comments from co-founder Stefano Gabbana about the Chinese. What’s followed is a boycott on the mainland that threatens to snuff out one of fashion’s biggest names.

Online retailers such as Alibaba’s TMall and JD.com Inc. still haven’t reintroduced Dolce & Gabbana on their Chinese sites; Lane Crawford and other high-end department stores pulled the brand’s wares from their stores on the mainland; and the spring issues of influential local magazines like Vogue China feature no D&G ads or products.

The damage hasn’t been limited to China. At both the Golden Globes and the Oscars, where in previous years Sarah Jessica Parker, Scarlett Johansson, and other top talent stepped out in opulent Dolce & Gabbana gowns, no A-lister dared to risk alienating fans by donning the label. “They basically offended an entire country,” says Leaf Greener, a stylist and fashion consultant based in Shanghai and Paris. “Who wants to associate with that?”



China’s Expensive Appetites
Share of global personal luxury goods market, by consumers’ nationality

Data: Bain & Co.

2018 figures are estimates; 2025 figures are Bain forecasts
With Chinese shoppers estimated to account for at least a third of luxury sales and two-thirds of the industry’s growth, the enduring controversy in this key market may pose an existential threat to closely held Dolce & Gabbana. The company doesn’t disclose sales, but an Italian filing showed revenue of €1.3 billion ($1.47 billion) for the year ended March 2018, roughly twice the haul of rival Versace SpA.

Gabbana and his partner Domenico Dolce founded the brand in 1985 with a unique Italian blend—look-at-me dresses bursting with leopard prints and embroidered flowers, skimpy men’s underwear, and advertising campaigns that celebrated a cartoonish version of their country: shouting families, nuns, and sexed-up ingénues arranged in kitschy restaurants, or Sicilian street scenes that looked straight out of The Godfather.

“It’s gotten political now. I don’t think people are going to forget”

The duo has weathered—and even seemed to relish—previous controversies. In 2017, Gabbana punched back at detractors of its “Thin & Gorgeous” sneakers as “fat and full of cholesterol.” The company even sold its own $245 “#Boycott D&G” T-shirts to lambaste Americans who denounced it for dressing first lady Melania Trump, a longtime fan. The pair did have to walk back remarks they made criticizing gay families to an Italian magazine in 2015, but that damage pales in comparison with the China meltdown. “It’s gotten political now,” Greener says. “I don’t think people are going to forget.”

Before a planned November runway show in Shanghai, Dolce & Gabbana posted a series of videos featuring a Chinese model awkwardly attempting to eat cannoli, pizza, and other Italian foods with chopsticks. The videos alone might have been forgiven as a crude joke made by a company known for poking fun at its own culture, but leaked messages by Gabbana insulting Chinese people and defending the video provoked a social media firestorm. Making matters worse, the company initially claimed it had been hacked and took days to remove the videos from its Instagram accounts and apologize. Amid the uproar, it was forced to hastily postpone the show.

Three months later, “I still am not seeing anyone wear Dolce,” says Bryanboy, a Filipino fashion influencer and style blogger. While Burberry, Gucci, and Prada have also faced anger for releasing products seen as crude or culturally insensitive, those brands responded quickly to quell any controversy. “This was on another level,” Bryanboy says.

At Dolce & Gabbana’s February show in Milan, the front row was missing names like Stevie Wonder and Monica Bellucci, who’ve graced previous shows. Vogue China’s editor-in-chief, Angelica Cheung, also sat out the event, as did many of the bloggers, stylists, and top models, whose online followers are key to attracting buyers for a collection. As a result, the show garnered only about $4.2 million worth of exposure on social media and in the press, vs. $12.2 million the year before, estimates fashion consultant Launchmetrics. The number of articles and posts about the show fell to a tenth of their previous level.

“The influencer economy is so powerful, and they are increasingly demanding that brands reflect their lifestyle and values,” says Elspeth Cheung, a brand valuation director at Kantar Millward Brown’s BrandZ unit. Cheung says young Chinese shoppers have become more and more proud of their country’s recent prosperity. “Brands need to make sure that their communication either supports or at least doesn’t go against the China dream,” she says.

In the scandal’s wake, social media comments have quipped that D&G now stands for “Dead and Gone.” With the brand still absent from key wholesalers, e-commerce, and magazines in China, the misstep has become the luxury industry’s most notorious incident since Christian Dior designer John Galliano was filmed delivering an anti-Semitic rant in a Paris bar in 2012. Dior quickly fired Galliano and replaced him with another designer, but the way out for Dolce & Gabbana is less clear—Gabbana’s name is on the door, and he owns half of the company.

On a recent Sunday in Beijing, some shoppers had returned to the Dolce & Gabbana corner at the SKP luxury mall. While a few said they didn’t care about the scandal, most of their peers preferred to line up to enter the nearby shops of rivals Louis Vuitton and Gucci.

Xia Li, a 40-year-old entrepreneur, says some Chinese customers will return to the brand once the memory of the incident fades, but she hopes the majority will resist: “They’re not insulting us and making profits from us at the same time.” —With Claire Che and Daniela Wei

BOTTOM LINE - Chinese consumers account for at least a third of global luxury sales. Backlash over some culturally insensitive ads has put Dolce & Gabbana on the outs with these key shoppers.

Truthfully, if Hollywood is making a statement against Dolce and Gabbana, it would be more about Melania Trump than offending China. The only reason why this is a story is because it's the Chinese display of real soft power and not the kind where the Chinese need to beg for acceptance peddled by the likes of the New York Times which they claim China lacks. This is the kind of soft power they don't want everyone else knowing about let alone exercising it on especially them. It's like why do they want to giveaway the secret to being innovative to China but all their alarms are ringing over Made in China 2025 which they fear Chinese competition. Why would they teach a competitor to be innovative?

Canada, New Zealand, and Australia wonder how can China use economic levers against them when they want to poke China in the eye. Don't poke China in the eye if they don't want it to happen. They're all still in imperialist mode where they think they have a right to make money from China and insult the Chinese at the same time. The next step for China is to boycott them for actions they commit against others just like they do to China.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

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Smartphone shipments on decline
March 17, 2019

China's smartphone shipments fell 20.1 percent year on year in February to 13.99 million units, data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) showed.