Chinese Economics Thread

[Anlsvrthng]

China has no reason to catch up to any country in car ownership; China doesn't want to be a larger Korea. The traffic is already hell.

Interesting, SK has higher population density than China, and three times car ownership.

China car ownership rate ( per capita) is very small, so if there is high car concentration in same places then it more likely showing the wealth concentration into a small part of population in a small part of the country.

Exponential growth in international trade doesn't mean it was important yet or that the economy is similar to today. A calf grows very quickly but it is worlds different from a champion bull. You cannot even understand that the economy of over a century ago is different than the one today so of course you cannot analyze any economics intelligently.

The only word of significance in your whole paragraph is the first word: "if." I stopped reading when I saw 100 years LOL. You are imagining a scenario completely divorced from fact.

Actually the world trade in 1930 was somewhere between 50-100% of the 2008 level ( since that the world trade volume falling).

This is the range of the different data available online.

Think about that the Europeans/USA managed to grow exponentially in the 19th-20th century , just check China experience from that time.
At 1800 it was as strong as Europe, at 1900 as weak as Bangladesh today.

The countries who just copied found themselves with outdated industry, as the frontier moved fast to new technologies,. suggest to check the advancement of radio communication/radar/broadcasting .


And there is high chance for the China is making the manufacturing plants for the Alexanderson alternator of this time. (google is your friend )

Has nothing to do with China.

And you wrote it with straight face, or you laugh during typing ? : DDD

So, China hasn't copied everything that it managed in the past century from the wast : DDDDD

And I presume in the forbidden palace there is still an emperor : DDDD

Please show all mathematical calculations for 80%. Would love to see how you pulled that number out of your ass.

Everybody can laugh at them except you.

Check the number of countries that escaped the middle income trap . 80% even gives lot more credit to china than the historical experience : )

The data is saying the same thing with the same numbers: Chinese debt is comfortably below levels of her peers. It doesn't matter how the authors spin it; just look at the numbers. I can't count the number of times I've read, "Japanese economy roars to growth in the first quarter, touching 0.9%, astounding economists" and "Chinese economy sluggish and running out of steam with a mere 6.9% last quarter."

Math doesn't support you.

USA example has higher consumer debt per gdp %, but the household income is way higher than the Chinese level, so compared to income it is even lower than the Chinese.

Not to mention that the USA households has magnitude higher assets. Means in a crisis the USA consumption doesn't fall, but the Chinese will mop the floor.

Read after , many countless example in the history .

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Selling wrong info and analysis to customers intentionally will lose customers, my friend. But over here, you have nothing to lose hiding behind a pseudonym.

When the music on no one loose money. Only when the music stop, but the government will bail out everyone (except households : ) ) if that happens

There were people predicting the crisis before it hit. Way before you began studying economics.

No one from the mainstream.
Roubini, Tampa from calculatedrisk, Mish and so on.

Those was as known names like Muslix64 in the computer technology : )

 

[broadsword]

When the music on no one loose money. Only when the music stop, but the government will bail out everyone (except households : ) ) if that happens
/QUOTE]

If again. Anyone can say if.

No one from the mainstream.
Roubini, Tampa from calculatedrisk, Mish and so on.

Those was as known names like Muslix64 in the computer technology : )

Roubini is a well known economist.

But for someone like you to think you are better than economists and research analysts boggles my mind. Are you even working?

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Roubini is a well known economist.

Since 2009...

 

[Anlsvrthng]

@manqiangrexue last usually four - five turn, after the entropy take over : D


Anyway, calculation again ( I try to make it as simple as possible ):

China :
Consumer spending divided by gdp : 38.5%
Household debt to GDP :49.3%

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Debt to spending :128%

USA
Consumer spending divided by gdp : 66.8%
Household debt to GDP :77.3%

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Debt to spending :115.7%

Try to explain : debt in the term of GDP % doesn't take into consideration the dramatic differences between the Chinese and any other country GDP composition.
In China the consumers has way less share from the GDP, so the GDP % debt dramatically understating the indebtedness of households .

And there is the way higher assets of the middle class in the USA.

 

[broadsword]

Since 2009...

You must be young. Have you started working?

 

[manqiangrexue]

@manqiangrexue last usually four - five turn, after the entropy take over : D

Usually entropy happens whenever you post since you haven't had a coherent thought yet. And entropy is a great word to describe the garbage you posted beneath this sentence. That's not math; that's entropy. It makes no sense.

Anyway, calculation again ( I try to make it as simple as possible ):

China :
Consumer spending divided by gdp : 38.5%
Household debt to GDP :49.3%

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Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Debt to spending :128%

USA
Consumer spending divided by gdp : 66.8%
Household debt to GDP :77.3%

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Debt to spending :115.7%

Try to explain : debt in the term of GDP % doesn't take into consideration the dramatic differences between the Chinese and any other country GDP composition.
In China the consumers has way less share from the GDP, so the GDP % debt dramatically understating the indebtedness of households .

And there is the way higher assets of the middle class in the USA.

First of all, you know how I know your math sucks? You did A/B divided by C/B. All you need to do is A/C.

Secondly, what the hell is debt-to-spending? That's not a metric that means anything. You just made that shit up, just like spending minus GDP minus inflation. You did garbage math to come up with a nonsense number. The whole reason you needed to "calculate" this number instead of reference it is because it doesn't exist! Even Gordon Chang wouldn't think of doing this kind of retarded "math" to "analyze" anything.

Aren't you ashamed? Look at all the points in all my posts that you cannot answer! Look at all the times I challenged you to provide a source or evidence and you could only ignore it. Look at this stupid crap you made up about economics that. If I were you, I'd be too embarrassed to post anything else.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

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November data confirmed a continuation of the ugly trends that we discussed last month. For instance, passenger vehicle wholesales were down 16.1% on the year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. This data includes sedans, SUVs and crossover utility vehicles.
...
As a result, CICC now expects China's full year production and sales to drop more than 5% year-over-year for 2018. This would be the first annual decline in Chinese car sales in nearly three decades.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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You've posted the same data more than 10 times now. Aren't you bored of yourself? LOL China's total retail sales in 2018 are still climbing. So regarding your cherry-picked data:

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Usually entropy happens whenever you post since you haven't had a coherent thought yet. And entropy is a great word to describe the garbage you posted beneath this sentence. That's not
...

nswer! Look at all the times I challenged you to provide a source or evidence and you could only ignore it. Look at this stupid crap you made up about economics that. If I were you, I'd be too embarrassed to post anything else.

I try to make it simpler : , you can spend 12000 $ / year , you have 13000 $ debt that you need to service ( say credit card).
Now, the GDP of the country where you live is 24000$/year.

If the GDP of the country goes up to 55000 $/year, but your available money to spend stay the same, is it makes easier to service the debt ?

(Answer : no , you can pay the debt from your available money ,not from the synthetic number of GDP : D )