Chinese Economics Thread

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
LOLOLO WHYYYY don't bring up Texas?

So, just a reminder : here we talk about the reason why the car manufacturing /sales slow down in China.
Now, the resoning was "because Chian doesn't need the car ownership level like Texas".

I have to say that it is fair, so let compare it to SK, that country has higher population density and similar cultural background than Texas.

Now, SK has three times higher population density, if we correct it for different geography it is still higher than China.

The car ownership level three times higher than in China.

So NO, the drop in car sales is NOT because of changing preferences, but lack of purchasing power.

"The world right now is shifting from conventional vehicles to EV and/or hybrid energy vehicles. It is still a relatively new concept and these cars are improving rapidly compared to conventionally-fueled vehicles, which are very mature technology. What happens right before the new iphone or Samsung or Huawei comes out? Sales of the current models drop off in anticipation for improvement. This drop in sales can in no way be interpreted as under-performance or economic disaster for the company.

Chinese car ownership is on the Uruguay level, so there is no replacement ,like in the case of phones, but to buy the first car.
So, your reasoning doesn't hold water, without even considering that the cars that you dreaming doesn't exist, and those cars doesn't bring any benefit compared to the carbohydrates from the standpoint of usability. And this wasn't true in the case of phones around 2016.
Car sales are basically declining in every major economy around the world now. I believe another factor is that with the maturation of traditionally-fueled vehicle technology, the cars of today are lasting longer than the cars of the past and that is causing the replacement rate to drop."
Yes, because every economy going into recession.
The "alternative" drive trains decrease the usability and cost of cars, not increase it. So any change in sales can not be contributed to that. The main driver behind EV is the legalisation, not market need.
(remark : the first car that reached the 100km/hour speed 100 years ago was an electric car).
Then why did you quote that article?? That is an article that YOU cited as your evidence and when I told you what it said (right in the title), you called it lame. You just can't stop slapping yourself in the face, can you?

And it doesn't matter what you think is a "lame explanation" because that's a fact and it's also a government initiative. You think everyone who eats salad and seafood is because they're too poor to eat pork? Your explanation is the stupidest one of all. It's not just unlikely; it's not possible.

Why is pork so important to you? Do you have a pork fetish or something? How about beef and seafood? Don't like those? They don't count as food? LOL
I like chicken, but visibly the Chinese likes pork.
Anyway, China average level of living is waaay bellow of the Polish level, so there is still lot of room to improve the quality of food that the average Chinese buy.
There is a lot of improvement until China reach the level where they fight against overweight due to the excessive calorie intake. You know, going for healthy food and stuff like that.
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"As the world anticipates when the supercharged shopping day will hit a ceiling, sales are already cooling. The final total of 2018 represents a 27 percent increase from last year. That’s the lowest Alibaba has seen in the history of Singles’ Day sales, and a drop from 36 percent in 2017 — still, it remains impressive given how large the target is each year."
So what ? The
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in the USA quarter over quarter in the second quarter this year.
It showing that the online retail chain getting stronger and more mature, but doesn't give indication about the overall retail market.

I am sure about that in China there are lot of crick retailers that going into bankruptcy, due the the online competition.

Please , check the data and chain of logic prior of dumping your emotions onto the forum.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
So, just a reminder : here we talk about the reason why the car manufacturing /sales slow down in China.
Now, the resoning was "because Chian doesn't need the car ownership level like Texas".

I have to say that it is fair, so let compare it to SK, that country has higher population density and similar cultural background than Texas.

Now, SK has three times higher population density, if we correct it for different geography it is still higher than China.

The car ownership level three times higher than in China.

So NO, the drop in car sales is NOT because of changing preferences, but lack of purchasing power.
Your logic is that you can't find a difference between China and Korea so they have to be the same? Ridiculous; you don't know anything about either country. China has many vehicle controls that SK does not have that I've already mentioned. You can't even drive your car on all days in China. China has a plan to phase out conventional engines; does Korea have that? No. China has had 14 day long car jams; has Korea had that? LOL You don't know anything and your conclusion is wrong as usual. Overall Chinese spending and per capita GDP (as well as all forms of GDP measure) are increasing pointing to an up-rise in purchasing power. A single item or small group of items dropping is not sign of a decrease in purchasing power. Anybody with common sense can see that.
Chinese car ownership is on the Uruguay level, so there is no replacement ,like in the case of phones, but to buy the first car.
Replacement is a factor for those who own cars, and improvements in public transport, regulations, and urbanization reduce the need to own a car for those who don't. Replacement isn't the answer for everyone but it's a factor for some. I know mental processing is hard for you but I can't give you a universal reason that applies to everyone...
So, your reasoning doesn't hold water, without even considering that the cars that you dreaming doesn't exist, and those cars doesn't bring any benefit compared to the carbohydrates from the standpoint of usability. And this wasn't true in the case of phones around 2016.
Carbohydrates? Cookies, rice, and noodles? Cars don't exist? What the hell are you talking about? LOL No part of that made any sense; get your garbage English out of here!

Yes, because every economy going into recession.
The "alternative" drive trains decrease the usability and cost of cars, not increase it. So any change in sales can not be contributed to that. The main driver behind EV is the legalisation, not market need.
This is stupid. Every economy is not in recession. They are all growing: China, USA, EU, are all growing. China's the fastest of course. There is no recession, at least not yet. How stupid do you have to be to think that you can make up a huge fact like that?? EV cars are more expensive than conventional cars, not cheaper. That's also a fact. You're just here imagining opposite-facts and putting them into an "argument."
I like chicken, but visibly the Chinese likes pork.
Anyway, China average level of living is waaay bellow of the Polish level, so there is still lot of room to improve the quality of food that the average Chinese buy.
There is a lot of improvement until China reach the level where they fight against overweight due to the excessive calorie intake. You know, going for healthy food and stuff like that.
Visibly, you're wrong and you don't know anything about China. According to you, if you don't eat pork, then you're making your country poorer so I guess your chicken diet makes your gdp contribution zero? LOL Pork is inferior to beef and seafood, in China, and in all the world; both the latter 2 are rising in China.

I don't know why you keep comparing to Poland; maybe you live there. I know it sucks to be out in the cold with nothing around you and then you read about China growing cities more easily than Poland can grow crops and now you're here hoping to be the turd in the punch bowl. The living in China is far superior to Poland, both materialistically and spiritually. Just walking around in a Chinese mega-city is something that Poles cannot do; better buildings, superior transport, everything looks nicer. Spiritually, China is the center of world growth and optimism for the future is in over 90% of the citizens. Poland has no future; they're just cold, angry and likes to pick fights with Russia probably because they're so depressed they don't even care if they die LOL
So what ? The
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in the USA quarter over quarter in the second quarter this year.
It showing that the online retail chain getting stronger and more mature, but doesn't give indication about the overall retail market.
Very stupid comparison. Amazon's REVENUE increased 39%; it does much more than just facilitate online trade. It's a technology company with video sales, memberships, Alexa services, etc... China's single day numbers are a direct comparison of a sale event from year to year. But in any case, you are arguing for an overall RECESSION and DECREASE in Chinese consumption based on no annual data. I'm showing you an increase across the board here. It's not an overall 2018 consumption chart because 2018 hasn't ended yet but in the absence of that data, you clearly cannot suggest that it's been reduced. No economist expects that. And really, it's just a few months before you proven wrong by official numbers; do you really want to hang yourself on this tree? Oh, wait, you already have... LOL
I am sure about that in China there are lot of crick retailers that going into bankruptcy, due the the online competition.
As there are in all countries, but in China, more pop up.
Please , check the data and chain of logic prior of dumping your emotions onto the forum.
What an ironic request from someone like yourself who can't read charts. I'm checking all the data; you're the one saying that pork is China's all time favorite food based on your imagination LOL
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No one argue about that 2017 WAS the best year of Chinese consumer.

It is about the past half year : )

So NO, the drop in car sales is NOT because of changing preferences, but lack of purchasing power.

It showing that the online retail chain getting stronger and more mature, but doesn't give indication about the overall retail market.

I am sure about that in China there are lot of crick retailers that going into bankruptcy, due the the online competition.

Please , check the data and chain of logic prior of dumping your emotions onto the forum.
Ooops, I just looked and it's over for you again. Data's out, and you're wrong. I told you you'd hang on this tree and here you are wearing that noose like your favorite necklace. But I bet you'll still find something stupid to complain about, kick your legs and pee yourself while you're up there dangling LOL

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Page 2 graph shows increase in online and offline sales between 2018 and 2017.

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Continuous growth in Chinese consumption between 8.5% and 10.1% (annualized of course) for every month so far in 2018 (data up to October).

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Adding all months up to August (most recent available), overall sales in China up 9%; eCommerce up 28%.

I could post countless more but they all say the same thing. But of course they're not important; what's important is that if you don't eat more pork everyday, then you're poor, right? Polish economics LOLOL ;)
 
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now I read
China to help graduate job-seekers
Xinhua| 2018-12-08 15:32:19
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The Ministry of Education has introduced a package of preferential policies to help college students graduating in 2019 find jobs or start up businesses.

The package includes 19 measures designed to offer better support to the graduates or the companies employing them, according to a circular published by the ministry earlier this week.

A total of 8.34 million college students are expected to graduate in 2019.

The ministry is trying to give more incentives to those willing to work in grassroots units or remote rural areas, such as partial exemptions of student-loan payments.

It pledged to work with other authorities in offering training allowances and tax concessions to micro, small or medium-sized companies hiring new graduates.

The circular also promised support for graduates applying for internships or employment in international organizations.

For those willing to start a business, the ministry proposed reforms on startup education at colleges, more guidance and services including financial support.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Ooops, I just looked and it's over for you again. Data's out, and you're wrong. I told you you'd hang on this tree and here you are wearing that noose like your favorite necklace. But I bet you'll still find something stupid to complain about, kick your legs and pee yourself while you're up there dangling LOL

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Page 2 graph shows increase in online and offline sales between 2018 and 2017.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Continuous growth in Chinese consumption between 8.5% and 10.1% (annualized of course) for every month so far in 2018 (data up to October).

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Adding all months up to August (most recent available), overall sales in China up 9%; eCommerce up 28%.

I could post countless more but they all say the same thing. But of course they're not important; what's important is that if you don't eat more pork everyday, then you're poor, right? Polish economics LOLOL ;)
I repeat again: the growth in consumer spending coming from debt.

Few data:
Inflation is around 2.5% , GDP growth 6% , means 8.5 % enough only to keep the consumption on level.
Of course the food inflation higher than this, means the low/middle class doesn't experience higher share from the GDP at all, or even can experience slower wealth growth than the average of economy.

By quickly checking, the Chinese consumer spending is 4.7 trillion $, the USA is 13 trillion.

Now, the household debt between 17-18 jan growth by 3.7% TO GDP, means the increased consumer spending 100% financed by new debt.
Debt means interest, interest means decreasing disposable income, that means decreasing consumer spending.
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So, that we see in the drop of car/house sales more probably due to the limit of the debt carry capability of the Chinese.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The Chinese cycle that experiencing now is soooooo typical.

a version The company owner receive 200 in profit, worker 100, the owner spending only 100 from his money for consumption , 100 needs investment opportunity. Best investment is if he lend the money to the workers for interest to spend.

b version The middle class version should be that when the owner receive 100 in profit, the workers 200, and the owner doesn't receive rent on the money earned by the workers.

We can see the "a" version in work in China.
The middle class rising on debt, and as soon as the flow of money from lending dry up the whole class collapse.
 
now I read
Economic Watch: China's consumer inflation eases in November
Xinhua| 2018-12-09 22:22:56
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China's consumer prices eased in November thanks to the declines in food and oil prices, official data showed Sunday.

Consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in November, pulling back from the 2.5-percent gain in October, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

That was the first slowdown of year-on-year CPI growth in the second half of 2018.

On a monthly basis, the CPI dipped 0.3 percent compared with a 0.2-percent gain in October.

The CPI growth edged down mainly due to the softening of food prices.

Food prices fell 1.2 percent month on month in November, dragging down the CPI growth by 0.25 percentage points, the NBS statistician Sheng Guoqing said.

Prices of fresh vegetables declined 12.3 percent due to abundant supply while the price of pork, the staple meat of the country, dipped 0.6 percent since pig supply accelerated in some regions for fear of the African swine fever, Sheng said.

On a yearly basis, the price of pork continued to slump in November, down 1.1 percent year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing for a sixth month.

The unusual weather in the second and third quarters in parts of China might have enlarged the seasonal fluctuations of the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits, said Li Chao, researcher of the Huatai Securities.

Li forecast low inflation risk in the fourth quarter, saying food price fluctuations "had limited influence on the overall consumer inflation in the medium term."

The CPI growth was also dragged down by the decline of oil prices. Prices of gasoline and diesel fell 4.9 percent and 5.2 percent month on month, respectively, pulling down the CPI growth by 0.12 percentage points.

The consumer inflation will continue to soften since domestic demand is weak and oil prices are hard to rebound in the short term, said Yang Yewei, an analyst with Southwest Securities.

For the coming year, Xiong Yuan, an analyst with Guosheng Securities, said China will not see much CPI inflation risk, which will offer much space for policymakers to maneuver.

China is aiming to keep annual CPI growth at around 3 percent this year, the same as the 2017 target.

The average year-on-year CPI growth for the first 11 months stood at 2.1 percent, unchanged from the first 10 months, according to the NBS.

Producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in November, with the growth declining for five consecutive months.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I repeat again: the growth in consumer spending coming from debt.
Few data:
Inflation is around 2.5% , GDP growth 6% , means 8.5 % enough only to keep the consumption on level.
Of course the food inflation higher than this, means the low/middle class doesn't experience higher share from the GDP at all, or even can experience slower wealth growth than the average of economy.
Uh no, you are adding the wrong numbers together. Inflation means more money for same goods; GDP growth means more goods produced. There's no reason to add those numbers together and subtract from consumer spending; that's retarded people math. You know nothing about economics and since your opening statement made no sense, there's no need to evaluate the downstream effects.

And it's really cute how you tried to pull all the most favorable, untrue numbers for your equation only to have the whole equation make no sense anyway. 2.5% inflation? More like 2.2%. 6% GDP growth? 6.7% rounds to 6%, right? I mean, 0.7% is nothing; it's just the entire GDP growth rate of Japan in a good year LOL. 8.5% consumer spending growth? That's the lowest monthly; the highest was 10.1% and average was 9%.
By quickly checking, the Chinese consumer spending is 4.7 trillion $, the USA is 13 trillion.
There is no point to this statement.
Now, the household debt between 17-18 jan growth by 3.7% TO GDP, means the increased consumer spending 100% financed by new debt.
Debt means interest, interest means decreasing disposable income, that means decreasing consumer spending.
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So, that we see in the drop of car/house sales more probably due to the limit of the debt carry capability of the Chinese.
Oh, we're back to this? You don't remember how you lost this one last time either? LOL Scroll down on the link you provided on household debt. Look at what it is for all those other countries. China's debt is increasing but it's still very comfortably lower than all other major economies. So they're all gonna have to collapse before China feels the ill effects.

Also, you're deliberately avoiding the elephant in the room, which is that the rise in per capita GDP fuels the increase in consumer spending and increase in purchasing power.

The Chinese cycle that experiencing now is soooooo typical.

a version The company owner receive 200 in profit, worker 100, the owner spending only 100 from his money for consumption , 100 needs investment opportunity. Best investment is if he lend the money to the workers for interest to spend.

b version The middle class version should be that when the owner receive 100 in profit, the workers 200, and the owner doesn't receive rent on the money earned by the workers.

We can see the "a" version in work in China.
The middle class rising on debt, and as soon as the flow of money from lending dry up the whole class collapse.
LOL You don't know anything about companies; last time you said companies are 200% more efficient when there is no leadership. Neither of your "models" make sense just like your English. Everything you say is a joke because you don't know anything about anything but just keep on talking.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
Interesting, if the new homes are affordable then why there are world record level of empty apartment ?.

In China there are more demands for new homes than any where else in the world. This shows that you know little about the housing demand.

QUOTE="Anlsvrthng, post: 534997, member: 13284"]


Demand is not future, that is present.

.[/QUOTE]

No demand demonstrated the need for new future housings. Again you kept proving to the world your lack of understanding.

QUOTE="Anlsvrthng, post: 534997, member: 13284"]
If you built something , but there is no buyer for it the it is waste.
.[/QUOTE]

Yes but not in China. China is bigger and far more populated than your country. Therefore they have a greater need. Your desperation trying to prove that China is not as strong as some of you ignorant wish are showing.

QUOTE="Anlsvrthng, post: 534997, member: 13284"]
China spent the past century to become similar to the decadent west : ) Even if it meant to destroy all of its history ,like artworks, government structure, political order, education.
.[/QUOTE]

The west spent centuries copying the Chinese inventions and still came out behind China today.
 
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