Chinese Economics Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Trade war what trade war? Trumph tariff barely notice
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China Churns Out Most Steel Ever as Prices Hit Six-Year High
Bloomberg News
August 13, 2018, 9:30 PM CDT Updated on August 13, 2018, 10:33 PM CDT

  • Mills push furnaces beyond typical limits on strong margins

  • Aluminum output virtually matches record as exports expand
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Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
China, supplier of more than half the world’s steel, produced a record amount in July as mills boost runs to benefit from healthy margins amid a boom in prices to the highest level in six years.

Output of crude steel climbed 7.2 percent on year to 81.24 million metric tons, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. The daily rate was 2.62 million tons versus an
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high of 2.673 million tons in June. Production rose 6.3 percent to 532.9 million tons in the first seven months. Aluminum output virtually matched an all-time high.

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China’s steel mills are smashing output records by pushing furnaces beyond typical limits, offsetting closures,
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to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Margins are high as prices rise and policy makers vow to boost infrastructure investment, brightening prospects for demand, just as inventories slide.

While China has trumpeted reforms in the past two years that have shuttered aging and illegal plants, and curbed winter output in the most polluted cities, official data shows output rising. That’s partly because mills are using iron-rich ores to boost productivity, and raising the portion of steel scrap in their feed-stock, according to Goldman’s Hong Kong-based analyst Trina Chen.

At the same time, producers are facing increased risks from an intensifying trade war between the U.S. and China and a potential economic slowdown. Exports shrank 14 percent to 41.3 million tons in the first seven months of the year, according to customs data last week.

Output of primary aluminum jumped 12 percent on year to 2.93 million tons in July, almost matching the record level in June 2017, bureau data show. Production in the first seven months increased 3 percent to 19.4 million tons.
  • Aluminum
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    last month rose to the highest level in more than three years following a spike in global prices as U.S. sanctions on United Co. Rusal cut supplies, customs data show.
  • Output may ease from now on as mills
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    after environmental checks tightened bauxite supply and boosted alumina prices.
— With assistance by Winnie Zhu
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Instead of looking at stock market all those western pundit need to see the real estate sector .Because it make a large segment of Chinese investment I will be worry if this sector take a hit. But sofar anything but
Now that most of 2nd and 3rd tier cities are connected by HSR price boom in these cities
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China's New Home Price Growth Hits Two-Year High as Small Cities Boom
By Reuters

Aug. 15, 2018BEIJING — China's new home prices accelerated at their fastest pace in almost two years in July, led by smaller cities and highlighting challenges policymakers face in stimulating a slowing economy without fuelling a property bubble

Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 1.1 percent in July from a month earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on an official survey on Wednesday, the fastest pace since October 2016 and up from the previous month's reading of 1 percent.

Outside the recent boom periods of 2016 and early 2013, monthly price gains of more than 1 percent have been rare in China's official home price data.

The July increase also marks the 39th straight month of gains, Reuters calculations showed, despite tougher curbs designed to rein in a more-than-two-year real estate boom.

"It is not a good time to relax existing curbs now and policymakers should continue to step up property controls," Zhang Yiping, an analyst with China Merchants Securities said after Wednesday's data release.

The majority of the 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) still reported monthly price increases for new homes. 65 cities reported higher prices in July, up from 63 in June.

Yang Yewei, an analyst at Southwest Securities, said declining housing inventory combined with still robust demand has exacerbated a housing supply shortage.

Compared with a year earlier, new home prices rose 5.8 percent, the fastest pace since September 2017 and quickening from June's 5 percent gain.

Analysts say a spill-over effect from Beijing's efforts to step up credit support to smaller firms in the economy may have buoyed demand and quickened sales in the real estate sector.

Despite Beijing's determination to maintain property curbs, funding appears to be easing for property developers as Beijing pumps more credit into the economy to cushion the impact of a tit-for-tat trade war with the United States.

China's property investment growth sped up to its quickest pace in nearly two years in July, data showed on Tuesday, with year-on-year sales growth more than doubling from the previous month.

The resort city of Sanya, a tier-3 city in the island province of Hainan, was the top price performer in the month, rising 3.7 percent on-month, NBS data showed.

Tier-3 cities collectively posted a robust month-on-month price increase of 1.5 percent for new homes, the NBS said in a statement accompanying the data on Wednesday. That was more than double their 0.7 percent price gain in June.


Figures from the latest central bank monetary policy implementation report last Friday showed that the weighted average lending rate for individual home buyers rose 18 basis points in the second quarter, versus a 16 basis point rise in the previous quarter.

However, Southwest Securities' Yang said while China's mortgage lending rates have gradually risen, credit remains easily accessible in smaller cities.

(Reporting by Yawen Chen and Ryan Woo; Additional Reporting by Cheng Fang; Editing by Sam Holmes)
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
When the civil war end in China the KMT carted off all the gold to Taiwan leaving the national treasury in Beijing with nothing But throught the hard work of pioneering geologist China start prospecting for gold and soon find mother lode in Ling long mine in Jiaodong peninsula Shandong with output of 400 tonne per year .

When China start industrialization after the chaos of CR money was tight but luckily they have gold to buy new
equipment and services

From empty treasury to beginning of prosperity all backed by gold

Modern prospecting, refining and technology breakthrough in gold mining of low yield and difficult to extract gold ore only 1 gram in 1 tonne of dirt

A fascinating look at SGE(Shanghai gold exchange) for first time China has an gold exchange priced in RMB(Yuan)
befitting the largest producer of gold in the world . It is interesting that in the early year of PRC private citizen is not allowed to own gold China has come a long way since then
The SGE prod local gold companies to modernized since now they can trade gold to the world and has to compete with the best. Part of series from "across china" with Eng subtitle

Gold in Space and China certification office to register and authenticate the gold grade

China modern and green( environmentally friendly mining). The process of leaching gold from ore involve Cyanide a highly poison substance and this video tell how they recycle the cyanide And return mine tailing back to the mine as well as bringing back land scared by gold mining
I am just surprise they are still using underground mine because modern gold mining is open pit mining with huge excavator and dump truck Modern gold mining is highly efficient using high pressure and high temperature autoclave. It can recover minute amount of gold
 
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now I read
Chinese economy to maintain stable, positive growth: economist
Xinhua| 2018-08-16 17:13:54
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The Chinese economy is on a solid footing to maintain a stable and positive trend despite a complicated domestic and external environment.

The quality of China's economic growth has improved significantly with strengthened resilience and sustainability, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the State Council's Development Research Center, in a written article published in People's Daily Thursday.

China has established a trend of stable economic growth as its GDP growth has remained within the range of 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent for 12 quarters.

As the trend of global economic recovery has become clear, China's export will maintain its growth momentum with some fluctuations despite rising trade and investment protectionism.

Zhang also cited the progress of urbanization, increased industrial capacity utilization, rising corporate profitability and active domestic consumption as factors to support China's stable and positive economic growth.

"Challenges still exist including changes in the external environment and corporate financing difficulties. However, these will not change the stable and positive trend, and financial risks are controllable as China's macro-control policies will gradually take effect," noted Zhang.

In the future, China should continue to foster new growth impetus, enhance innovation, strengthen corporate competitiveness, deepen reform, expand opening-up, improve macro-control and keep liquidity reasonable and abundant, Zhang said.
 
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73.5 pct of Chinese consider buying new energy vehicles: survey
Xinhua| 2018-08-18 10:38:44
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A total of 73.5 percent of 2,006 respondents have considered buying new energy vehicles (NEV), according to a recent survey released by China Youth Daily.

Regarding the advantages of NEVs, especially electric vehicle (EV), 58.8 percent of the respondents believed they have lower energy-costs, 37.7 percent believed they have excellent power performance, and 25.5 percent believed they are easier to gain license plates.

"Compared with traditional vehicles, NEVs are better in aspects such as the exemption from restrictions on license plate numbers, the government subsidies, the lower price of electricity versus that of petrol and the particular appeal to environmentalist consumers," said Lin Boqiang, head of China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University.

However, there are still concerns over NEVs. 64.3 percent of the respondents were worried about the lack of charging facilities, 52.5 percent about the battery endurance, and 24.5 percent thought NEV technology was immature.

"Besides the price-performance ratio, the safety of batteries is also very important, but currently consumers are worried about battery costs or safety," said Lin, "Charging won't be a huge problem for long, as homes, office buildings, and parking lots will all be equipped with EV chargers in the future."

Some 66.6 percent hoped that charging issues can be addressed in the future, the survey shows.

Among the respondents, those from the first-tier cities accounted for 33.7 percent, second-tier cities 45.7 percent, third and fourth-tier cities 18.6 percent, and county-level and rural areas 2 percent.
 
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China to step up financing for weak links in infrastructure
Xinhua| 2018-08-19 01:51:46
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China will increase funding to support weak links in the country's infrastructure, the banking and insurance regulator said Saturday.

The country will step up credit support for infrastructure projects with sound capital base and good operation, on the condition that the funding won't add up to the hidden debt burden of local governments, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said in an online statement.

Insurance funds should support key projects via various financing channels including debts, stocks, or the combination of both forms, the statement said.

Based on analysis of ongoing infrastructure projects, banks and insurers should meet reasonable financing demand in accordance with principles for market orientation and give necessary support to unfinished projects.

The regulator also asked banks and insurers to step up financing for various sectors in the real economy, with favorable policies to be given to export-oriented companies and the private sector, according to the statement.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Now we have discussion sometime ago about profitability of SOE and I said that they generate puny profit and loaded up debt.Some one actually do the accounting of China railway and as I said it generate little profit but It does not really matter because there are plenty of external benefit just as this author said
Here is the accounting via mr unknown
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upload_2018-8-19_21-40-26.jpeg

Here is his conclusion
A few things are evident here:

  • As passenger revenue grew — driven by growth in high-speed rail — the gross margin of the business declined significantly from 2013 to 2016.
  • Part of this appears to be driven by a general slowdown in the non-HSR business e.g. the freight business. Nonetheless, the data suggests that rapid HSR growth was contributing to a decline in profitability in the business, at least at the gross margin level, over that time period.
  • This suggests that from 2013 to 2016, HSR was less profitable than the other operations, such that growth in HSR lowered the gross margin of the overall business.
  • However, in 2017, as passenger revenue continued to grow at a healthy clip (driven entirely by HSR), the gross profit and operating margins in the business began to pick up. Based on the most recent operating data
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    (through July 2018), HSR appears to still be following this path.
So why was HSR less profitable in the earlier years? And how is it going to become more profitable in the future? Let’s again dive another level down and examine the economics of the rail business itself.

Rail networks are classic high upfront investment businesses with extremely long useful lives. Significant capital is required to build out rail lines, train stations, intermodal links, depots, signaling systems, electrification equipment, relocation expenses for residents affected by construction, capitalized interest on construction loans etc.

For these types of businesses, perhaps the most significant financial driver is something called capacity utilization. High fixed-cost businesses need to be utilized so that the up-front construction cost may be amortized across variable usage. In the case of rail networks, this takes the form of trying to lower your depreciation charge per passenger-km.

Once operational, new rail lines often have long ramp-up periods. This is because people, businesses and habits need time to adjust to this new transport alternative. People adjust their commutes, perhaps switching from air travel to high-speed rail. Local businesses sprout up around the new train stations. New residents move in, attracted by proximity to the station and all the new activity. Tourists find it easier to travel for fun
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. Lower costs or commute times gradually enable new ways of doing business that eventually result in productivity growth.

Even after a line is fully operational and mature on its own, it may still not be working at full capacity because the rest of the rail network has not yet been fully completed. As new lines are extended connecting existing lines to new regions, there will be new spur/transfer traffic coming from the new line that benefits the existing line. So until a rail network is fully built out, there will always be room for further improvement in potential capacity utilization and yield.

Low capacity utilization is a common feature in the early years because all of these adjustments take time. If the project wasn’t a complete disaster, capacity utilization should gradually rise over time as people find more reasons to use the new rail line.

Low capacity utilization during the ramp-up period translates into sub-par financial results. New rail lines are simply not going to be as profitable as more mature rail lines that have reached their planned capacity targets. Financial losses during the ramp-up period should not be surprising for new rail lines.

China’s high-speed rail network appears to be following this trend.

After the Global Financial Crisis, high-speed rail projects that had been on the docket were fast-tracked. This sparked the first huge boom in high-speed rail construction from 2009 to 2011. The 968-km
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line opened up in late 2009.
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was completed in mid-2011. By 2011, China had topped 8,000 km in HSR track, already making it the world’s largest network.

After the
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in July 2011, a moratorium was placed on construction but by early 2012, things were back on track. At the end of 2013, China had close to 15,000 km of operational track. There was another big investment boom starting in 2014. By the end of 2016, the number had topped 20,000 km and as of today (August 2018), it is approaching 30,000
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.

main-qimg-dfa0e4660562faeda44ee5bceefe406a

With so many new lines ramping up their capacity, capacity utilization was relatively low in the early years. But as the lines have matured, capacity utilization rates have shot up. In 2012, the average occupancy rate of HSR in China was 57%. This percentage steadily increased from 65% in 2013 to 72% by 2016
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. Today the number is even higher as the pace of new HSR line construction has moderated somewhat while existing lines have ramped up towards — and in some cases exceeded — their original intended capacity targets. For example, it took the Beijing-Shanghai line almost four years to reach operational breakeven in 2015
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and today it is the most profitable line in the system.

With the steady rise in capacity utilization, CR’s profitability and financial metrics have improved. And they should continue to improve as the HSR network matures and as the economy “digests” new rail lines. The freight and real estate business had clearly been subsidizing HSR in the early years but it looks like HSR — now the fastest-growing part of CR’s business — is rapidly improving its profitability metrics as capacity utilization continues to rise across the system.

The other thing that needs to be said about high-speed rail and public infrastructure projects in general is that GAAP financials often do not accurately capture the total societal benefit. There are many positive externalities that are associated with public transportation infrastructure ranging from reduction of pollution/carbon to better quality of life to the network effect value of encouraging more economic interaction and connections.

Most governments recognize these positive externalities and often look to subsidize their rail operations. East Japan Railway is relatively healthy with a 16% EBIT margin. SNCF (France) runs at about a 6% operating margin
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. Amtrak (U.S.) runs at a major operating loss
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. But I would argue that all — even loss-making Amtrak — are overall positives for their respective economies due to the positive externalities they provide that do not show up explicitly in their operating metrics.

So even as HSR runs at a lower profitability margin than CR’s overall ~20% level, one needs to take into account the fact that many lines are still ramping up as well as the societal benefits that are not captured in the financials alone.
 
now I read
Nissan to invest $900 million on new assembly plant in China: Nikkei
2018-08-21 08:31 GMT+8
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Japan’s Nissan Motor Co will spend around 900 million US dollars to build a new auto assembly plant in China that will increase production capacity in the company by 30 percent, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday.

Nissan, which operates in China through a joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Group Co Ltd, is in final stages of talks with its Chinese partner to build a new plant in Wuhan in Hubei province, the Nikkei reported without citing sources.

The investment in Wuhan, which totals 100 billion yen (905 million US dollars), is expected to have an annual production capacity of 200,000 to 300,000 cars a year, the Nikkei reported.

New production lines will be added to a Dongfeng plant in Changzhou in Jiangsu province, which will increase capacity by about 120,000 passenger cars a year, a spokesman from Nissan told Reuters in response to questions about the Nikkei’s story.

In addition to Changzhou, Nissan is exploring the possibility of expanding production capacity in China, but no further details can be confirmed, the spokesman said.

Nissan sold 1.5 million vehicles last year. Its goal is to sell up to 2.6 million vehicles a year by 2022, said the source.

Nissan in February outlined a five-year plan, dubbed “Triple One,” to increase its market share in China by focusing on electric cars and the Venucia, a no-frills local Nissan brand in China - two market segments expected to see a surge in demand. It also aims to boost sales of light commercial vans and trucks.

Rival Toyota plans to boost its China capacity over the next few years by 240,000 vehicles a year, or by about 20 percent, from its current capacity of 1.16 million vehicles a year.
 

azesus

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi Speed Rail is a rather smart move of turning lemon into lemonade because of USA QE exporting their otherwise bubble inflation
 
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