Chinese Economics Thread

[Anlsvrthng]

Yes. But China's population density is only about 54% of UK's. See

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For UK, the vehicle ownership is 510 per 1000 persons. So China can have a higher vehicle ownership than 510 per 1000 persons.



320 vehicles/1000 persons is only about 63% of UK's per capita ownership.



To reach UK's level, China has to produce about 500 million more vehicles. At a current production rate of 24 million a year and a 10% growth rate, it will take 10 years at least.



Exactly what's unbalanced?

Best part of China is mountain.
The coastal regions has very high population density.
Guangdong has 600 person per sqkm population density.
England has more than 300 person per sqkm, ad UK 271.
US New York State has a pop density of 162, and the US 33 person / sqkm.


So, I don't think that the car ownership rate can go above the UK level ( and I think it will be way lower than that in long term) .

 

[Jura The idiot]

...
Example there was a moment like this in 1937 in Germany, when they reached the maximum level of armament making.

Interesting.

Anlsvrthng
I noticed you were pushing against China on several pages, I tried to ignore, but now tell me what is your reference to Nazi Germany supposed to mean?!

contrary to your statement
"Example there was a moment like this in 1937 in Germany, when they reached the maximum level of armament making."
Nazi Germany of course produced more weapons during WW2 than in 1937, so what are you insinuating here?!

 

[siegecrossbow]

Anlsvrthng
I noticed you were pushing against China on several pages, I tried to ignore, but now tell me what is your reference to Nazi Germany supposed to mean?!

contrary to your statement
"Example there was a moment like this in 1937 in Germany, when they reached the maximum level of armament making."
Nazi Germany of course produced more weapons during WW2 than in 1937, so what are you insinuating here?!

Probably that China will expand like Nazi Germany in the event of economic collapse? Historical records indicate that the German economy was actually on the verge of meltdown in the years before WWII.

I hope that's not his intention, because that would steer into deeply political (and thus forbidden) territories here.

 

[2handedswordsman]

He is in denial, so this is a point that some things have to be clear. As we know freemarket capitalism is moderate fascism because it comprehends inequality in every transaction between humans. You bring the example of nazi germany for what purpose? Germany those times was the best place in the world for companies to make money . Big contracts with industrial giants such as BMW,Krupp,BASF,Siemens,Bayer,Ford,IBM and a huge cheap labor workforce with restricted political freedom ! Many of them worked for free as slaves , like Jews before ending to concetrate camps. As we know these companies are still heading global economy and we 've seen what they are able to do to maximize profits. Many of those giants out there...It's clear to me that your point of view is much different so you can't convince me to anything because they count nothing to me. "τζάμπα κόπος" is "you waste your time" in free translation from Greek

 

[Jura The idiot]

Probably that China will expand like Nazi Germany in the event of economic collapse? Historical records indicate that the German economy was actually on the verge of meltdown in the years before WWII.

I hope that's not his intention, because that would steer into deeply political (and thus forbidden) territories here.

I had been actually thinking to point your attention to that
Anlsvrthng

 

[manqiangrexue]

I still thinking about the potential outcomes.

But I think the graph about China oil/ore/coal consumption, and the general labour requireet of investment and so on means that without using very creative accounting the further investment fueled headling GDP growth become very hard.

I mean, there is no more technology improvement in making new roads, so now on the exponentialy increasing ammount of road construction will useing exponentialy mroe resources.

I mean, the problem with investment based GDP growth is that if you make 100000 km of road every year then the GDP contribution will stay the same, so if you want to increase the GDP by ten percent then you have to make ten percent more road per year.

After a while you have to restrict the consumption to make this trick, if there is no more free resources in the economy.
In that case the best way is to start to send into bankrupcy the road making companies and banks, and free up the resources to make cosnumption items.
Additionaly, they can start to import mroe consumer item.

The best outcome should be changing trade ballance from surpluss to deficit, big company bankrupcies, but tight labour market and improving sallaries, faster growing than the inflation.

That should be the real reballancing.
Example there was a moment like this in 1937 in Germany, when they reached the maximum level of armament making.

Interesting.

There are too many instances of inaccuracies and false logic to sort through singularly in your pile of incoherent thoughts posing as a paragraph so we're just going to go back to the conclusion, which is that China's economy will continue to grow and expand at around the government target, right? That's your conclusion, ok.

 

[supercat]

Best part of China is mountain.
The coastal regions has very high population density.
Guangdong has 600 person per sqkm population density.
England has more than 300 person per sqkm, ad UK 271.
US New York State has a pop density of 162, and the US 33 person / sqkm.

So, I don't think that the car ownership rate can go above the UK level ( and I think it will be way lower than that in long term) .

Of course China can have a higher vehicle ownership than UK's 510 vehicles/1000 persons. For example, San Marino has a population density of 505, yet it as a vehicle ownership of 1263 vehicles/1000 persons.

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[AssassinsMace]

Anlsvrthng just took the long way around to charge that China is going to be the next Nazi Germany. By the simple logic of what he bases his conclusions that China is not selling as many smartphones as the year before therefore a collapse is coming thus China will turn into Nazi Germany because Germany had a economic downturn that gave rise to the Nazis, China could never be Nazi Germany because Nazis are for white supremacy and the Chinese ain't white.

And let's not forget what the Nazis were for Europe, Great Britain was the Nazis for the world. Another point against China being the next Nazi Germany because as Anlsvrthng likes to point out, China ain't anywhere like superior Great Britain.

 

[supercat]

Ok, it sounds a bit strange.

You mean by saying" savings" liquid assets in the disposal of the population, or money saved in the bank, or what?

It's money in the bank.

I mean, it is quite safe to say the average US citizen has higher level of assets in his/her disposal than the average Chinese household.

So what? The U.S. is still a wealthier nation than China. The average American is still wealthier than the average Chinese. However, since China has 4 times more people, aggregately China now buys as much as stuff as the U.S. See below:

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Or you mean the national level yearly saving rate, that needs to be invested somewhere ?

In the later case the yearly investment has to generate positive return, or at least has to keep its value.

That is the problem in China at the moment.

The businesses making investments with negative return rate.

Means 100 yaun of saving worth only 90 youan in one year time, and it rolled over by using cheap financing, and that helps to avoid the recognition of losses.

Who says Chinese investment has an overall negative return? You are now starting to make things up.

 

[advill]

HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR. May it bring prosperity & good health to you and family. Also for China's economy continue to grow, and may there be peace in the region.