Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Jura The idiot
General
now noticed the tweet
China has introduced its toughest regulation on land reclamation along the country's coastline, vowing to demolish illegally reclaimed land and stop approving general reclamation projects.
China has introduced its toughest regulation on land reclamation along the country's coastline, vowing to demolish illegally reclaimed land and stop approving general reclamation projects.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Exports, consumers drive China's 6.9 percent growth in 2017
Kelvin Chan, AP Business Writer 5 hours ago
HONG KONG (AP) -- China's economy gained steam in 2017, expanding at a 6.9 percent pace in 2017 in its first annual increase in seven years, according to data released Thursday that exceeded economists' forecasts and the government's target.
Buoyant consumer spending and robust exports helped drive the faster expansion, as the economy defied expectations of weaker growth in the latter half of the year due to curbs on bank lending.
The data show China's communist leaders have some extra wiggle room as they strive to wean the economy away from reliance on wasteful and polluting industries and exports in favor of slower but more sustainable consumer spending. The rebalancing has been complicated by Beijing's repeated infusions of credit to prevent activity from slowing too much, which has pushed up debt that analysts say is the biggest threat to economic stability.
The government had set a target of 6.5 percent growth after the economy expanded at a 6.7 percent annual pace in 2016, its slowest in 26 years.
Growth in the fourth quarter held steady at 6.8 percent, though that was a tick slower than the 6.9 percent pace of growth in the first half of the year, the report said.
Retail sales rose 10.2 percent in 2017 while exports jumped 10.8 percent from a year earlier despite heightened trade tensions during U.S. President Donald Trump's first year in office.
"The national economy has maintained the momentum of stable and sound development and exceeded expectations," said the report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Continued strong demand should help support China's exports, said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics.
"While domestic demand should cool on tighter financial policy, China's policymakers want the slowdown in credit and the economy to be gradual. We project GDP growth to slow to 6.4 percent this year," he said in a commentary.
The upbeat data underscored debate over the veracity of official figures, following a recent spate of reports about local Chinese governments reporting fake or inaccurate economic data.
Earlier this week, Chen Qiufa, the governor of Liaoning province in China's rust-belt northeast region, admitted that economic figures were padded out from 2011 to 2014, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Similar cases have been reported recently by the port city of Tianjin and Inner Mongolia province.
Such practices have gone on for decades in China. But by understating the severity of the slowdown in the past five years, officials now may be understating the scale of the rebound, some economists say.
"We have doubts about the accuracy of the official figures given how implausibly stable they have been in recent years," Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report, adding that his group's unofficial measure of activity showed a slower pace of growth but a more pronounced recovery.
"Admittedly, the monthly data for December, also published today, suggest that the economy had a relatively strong end to the year," he added.
The statistics bureau's commissioner, Ning Jizhe, vowed to fix the problem, though he said the recent cases of fake data were too small to affect the overall data.
"The accuracy of China's statistical figures and statistical system would not be affected by the problems of some individual local (government), region, enterprise, or unit," he told reporters.
Earlier Thursday, China's foreign exchange regulator said the country's cross-border capital flows hit a turning point in 2017 as foreign currency reserve levels stabilized after two years of declines, the country's foreign exchange regulator.
Wang Chungying, a spokeswoman for China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told reporters in Beijing that the supply and demand of foreign exchange "have shifted to a basic equilibrium."
China's foreign exchange reserves rose for 11 straight months from January-December, expanding by a total of $129.4 billion last year to $3.1 trillion dollars, Wang said at an annual briefing.
Kelvin Chan, AP Business Writer 5 hours ago
HONG KONG (AP) -- China's economy gained steam in 2017, expanding at a 6.9 percent pace in 2017 in its first annual increase in seven years, according to data released Thursday that exceeded economists' forecasts and the government's target.
Buoyant consumer spending and robust exports helped drive the faster expansion, as the economy defied expectations of weaker growth in the latter half of the year due to curbs on bank lending.
The data show China's communist leaders have some extra wiggle room as they strive to wean the economy away from reliance on wasteful and polluting industries and exports in favor of slower but more sustainable consumer spending. The rebalancing has been complicated by Beijing's repeated infusions of credit to prevent activity from slowing too much, which has pushed up debt that analysts say is the biggest threat to economic stability.
The government had set a target of 6.5 percent growth after the economy expanded at a 6.7 percent annual pace in 2016, its slowest in 26 years.
Growth in the fourth quarter held steady at 6.8 percent, though that was a tick slower than the 6.9 percent pace of growth in the first half of the year, the report said.
Retail sales rose 10.2 percent in 2017 while exports jumped 10.8 percent from a year earlier despite heightened trade tensions during U.S. President Donald Trump's first year in office.
"The national economy has maintained the momentum of stable and sound development and exceeded expectations," said the report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Continued strong demand should help support China's exports, said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics.
"While domestic demand should cool on tighter financial policy, China's policymakers want the slowdown in credit and the economy to be gradual. We project GDP growth to slow to 6.4 percent this year," he said in a commentary.
The upbeat data underscored debate over the veracity of official figures, following a recent spate of reports about local Chinese governments reporting fake or inaccurate economic data.
Earlier this week, Chen Qiufa, the governor of Liaoning province in China's rust-belt northeast region, admitted that economic figures were padded out from 2011 to 2014, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Similar cases have been reported recently by the port city of Tianjin and Inner Mongolia province.
Such practices have gone on for decades in China. But by understating the severity of the slowdown in the past five years, officials now may be understating the scale of the rebound, some economists say.
"We have doubts about the accuracy of the official figures given how implausibly stable they have been in recent years," Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report, adding that his group's unofficial measure of activity showed a slower pace of growth but a more pronounced recovery.
"Admittedly, the monthly data for December, also published today, suggest that the economy had a relatively strong end to the year," he added.
The statistics bureau's commissioner, Ning Jizhe, vowed to fix the problem, though he said the recent cases of fake data were too small to affect the overall data.
"The accuracy of China's statistical figures and statistical system would not be affected by the problems of some individual local (government), region, enterprise, or unit," he told reporters.
Earlier Thursday, China's foreign exchange regulator said the country's cross-border capital flows hit a turning point in 2017 as foreign currency reserve levels stabilized after two years of declines, the country's foreign exchange regulator.
Wang Chungying, a spokeswoman for China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, told reporters in Beijing that the supply and demand of foreign exchange "have shifted to a basic equilibrium."
China's foreign exchange reserves rose for 11 straight months from January-December, expanding by a total of $129.4 billion last year to $3.1 trillion dollars, Wang said at an annual briefing.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
GErman exposure to China is higher in term of value added good But with changing pattern of China economy that show more and more growth are due to consumption, German export will be reduced in the future.Looking at the pattern of growth so much for threat of economic war
China consumption contributed 58.8 percent to growth
Chinese growth is now powering ahead even as politicians clamp down on local government lending, with consumption being one of the most important engines. Data released on Thursday showed the world’s second-biggest economy expanded 6.9 percent last year. Consumption contributed 58.8 percent to growth.
If China’s need for capital investment goes down, that would “not be optimal for the German economy,” Herrmann and Moec wrote in a research note. German manufacturers are most exposed to developments in capital expenditure in that country, while goods that benefit from a pick up in consumption are more closely associated with the European market.
“Composition of growth in China may matter more for Germany than its absolute level,” the economists said. The likely future mix of “more Chinese consumption but less capital expenditure, and more European capital expenditure than consumption” might lead to German manufacturing not being able to contribute as much toward overall growth.
China consumption contributed 58.8 percent to growth
Chinese growth is now powering ahead even as politicians clamp down on local government lending, with consumption being one of the most important engines. Data released on Thursday showed the world’s second-biggest economy expanded 6.9 percent last year. Consumption contributed 58.8 percent to growth.
If China’s need for capital investment goes down, that would “not be optimal for the German economy,” Herrmann and Moec wrote in a research note. German manufacturers are most exposed to developments in capital expenditure in that country, while goods that benefit from a pick up in consumption are more closely associated with the European market.
“Composition of growth in China may matter more for Germany than its absolute level,” the economists said. The likely future mix of “more Chinese consumption but less capital expenditure, and more European capital expenditure than consumption” might lead to German manufacturing not being able to contribute as much toward overall growth.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Excellent article why the sky won't fell on China. As well it show maturing Chinese financial market where raising fund is done thru stock market instead of debt
The vanishing of China risk
China equity market risk is now on par with developed markets, but Chinese stocks are still much cheaper -- now they should outperform
By JANUARY 19, 2018 12:23 AM (UTC+8)
“China risk” was a Shibboleth for fund managers during 2015 and 2016, a specter haunting otherwise buoyant financial markets. A run on Chinese reserves, a collapse of Chinese corporate credit, a sudden slowdown in growth, and other disaster scenarios were at the top of the worry list of Western risk managers—until sometime in the middle of 2017, when China began to trade like a developed market.
By the conventional measures of risk, Chinese equities are about as risky as their American or European equivalents, and considerably less risky than Japanese stocks. In terms of valuation, though, important segments of the Chinese market are much cheaper than foreign equivalents.
That explains why Chinese financial stocks are melting up during 2018. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has risen 10% since Jan. 1, and more than three-quarters of its increase in market capitalization comes from the financials. The major banks have risen by 14%-27% (the lowest for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the most for Citic Bank).
The January rally reflects a belated recognition that China’s banks are trading too cheaply: the forward-looking price-earnings ratio for the major Chinese banks is around 6 or 7, about half that of their American and European counterparts. Investors now understand that China isn’t twice as risky.
Source: Bloomberg
Volatility is the universal gauge of risk. During 2014-2016, China’s Shanghai Composite Index showed volatility (the annualized standard deviation of daily returns) of 15% to 30%. In English, that indicates a roughly two-thirds probability of a 15%-30% change in the price of the stock index during the next year. Volatility surged with the 2015 equity market bubble and its aftermath, as China’s authorities first encouraged the run-up in stock prices by looking the other way while investors piled on illegal leverage, and then cracking down.
The devaluation of the RMB in August 2015, moreover, was clumsily executed. China needed to de-link its currency from the overvalued dollar, but it failed to signal its intentions to the market. Chinese corporate borrowers paid back roughly a trillion dollars of foreign currency loans over the next year, and China’s official reserves correspondingly fell by a trillion dollars. Inept Western analysts warned of a run on China’s reserves, although the Bank for International Settlements explained that this simply reflected a currency shift in balance sheets. Contrary to Western critics, China’s growth continued at close to 7% (and we don’t hear any more allegations that the numbers are faked).
What has changed? First of all, the threatened reserve run never emerged, and China’s external position net of corporate debt in foreign currencies remains as strong as ever it was. Second, the modest depreciation of the RMB helped to turn around the deflation in producer prices that in turn depressed corporate profits. As I reported in , rising producer prices buoyed profits, and in turn helped Chinese corporate borrowers to improve their gearing ratios.
China’s authorities have learned a great deal since 2015. The People’s Bank of China is encouraging corporates to de-lever, which is not difficult when profits are rising, and rising fastest among the smokestack companies who took on the lion’s share of the corporate debt burden. The dodgy market for wealth-management products is shrinking, and overall credit growth has slowed.
Investors in Chinese stocks also show more discernment. In volatile stock markets, everything tends to move together. Markets are driven by what the finance profession calls “systemic risk,” that is, a risk affecting all stocks, such as currency problems, deflation, or central bank actions. Between 2007 and 2016, I calculate that 54% of change in the prices of Shanghai Composite Index stocks was driven by a common, “systemic” factor. During 2017, again by my calculations, the “systemic” factor explained only 28% of their change. Investors, that is, looked for value at the individual stock level, rather than responding to overall risk.
When stock-picking replaces concern about the currency, the central bank, or the overall growth outlook, some stocks rise and some fall, but the overall level of the index is less jumpy. That is one thing volatility captures as a measure of risk. Low volatility in the Shanghai Composite Index, in other words, shows that investors are trading Chinese stocks the same way that they trade stocks in developed markets—on the basis of valuation, management and growth prospects, rather than as stand-ins for fears about government policy.
That is a gigantic milestone in China’s economic maturity. It suggests that the equity market can become a more important source of capital for China’s growth, replacing corporate debt which grew too fast as China compensated for the 2008 world financial crisis. It implies that the cost of capital for Chinese companies will fall as the risk premium on their obligations shrinks.
China equity market risk is now on par with developed markets. But Chinese stocks remain much cheaper. The forward-looking price earnings ratio for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is only 8.5, compared to 19 for the S&P 500. When Chinese stocks were twice as volatile as American stocks,that made sense. Now Chinese stocks should outperform.
The vanishing of China risk
China equity market risk is now on par with developed markets, but Chinese stocks are still much cheaper -- now they should outperform
By JANUARY 19, 2018 12:23 AM (UTC+8)
“China risk” was a Shibboleth for fund managers during 2015 and 2016, a specter haunting otherwise buoyant financial markets. A run on Chinese reserves, a collapse of Chinese corporate credit, a sudden slowdown in growth, and other disaster scenarios were at the top of the worry list of Western risk managers—until sometime in the middle of 2017, when China began to trade like a developed market.
By the conventional measures of risk, Chinese equities are about as risky as their American or European equivalents, and considerably less risky than Japanese stocks. In terms of valuation, though, important segments of the Chinese market are much cheaper than foreign equivalents.
That explains why Chinese financial stocks are melting up during 2018. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has risen 10% since Jan. 1, and more than three-quarters of its increase in market capitalization comes from the financials. The major banks have risen by 14%-27% (the lowest for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the most for Citic Bank).
The January rally reflects a belated recognition that China’s banks are trading too cheaply: the forward-looking price-earnings ratio for the major Chinese banks is around 6 or 7, about half that of their American and European counterparts. Investors now understand that China isn’t twice as risky.
Source: Bloomberg
Volatility is the universal gauge of risk. During 2014-2016, China’s Shanghai Composite Index showed volatility (the annualized standard deviation of daily returns) of 15% to 30%. In English, that indicates a roughly two-thirds probability of a 15%-30% change in the price of the stock index during the next year. Volatility surged with the 2015 equity market bubble and its aftermath, as China’s authorities first encouraged the run-up in stock prices by looking the other way while investors piled on illegal leverage, and then cracking down.
The devaluation of the RMB in August 2015, moreover, was clumsily executed. China needed to de-link its currency from the overvalued dollar, but it failed to signal its intentions to the market. Chinese corporate borrowers paid back roughly a trillion dollars of foreign currency loans over the next year, and China’s official reserves correspondingly fell by a trillion dollars. Inept Western analysts warned of a run on China’s reserves, although the Bank for International Settlements explained that this simply reflected a currency shift in balance sheets. Contrary to Western critics, China’s growth continued at close to 7% (and we don’t hear any more allegations that the numbers are faked).
What has changed? First of all, the threatened reserve run never emerged, and China’s external position net of corporate debt in foreign currencies remains as strong as ever it was. Second, the modest depreciation of the RMB helped to turn around the deflation in producer prices that in turn depressed corporate profits. As I reported in , rising producer prices buoyed profits, and in turn helped Chinese corporate borrowers to improve their gearing ratios.
China’s authorities have learned a great deal since 2015. The People’s Bank of China is encouraging corporates to de-lever, which is not difficult when profits are rising, and rising fastest among the smokestack companies who took on the lion’s share of the corporate debt burden. The dodgy market for wealth-management products is shrinking, and overall credit growth has slowed.
Investors in Chinese stocks also show more discernment. In volatile stock markets, everything tends to move together. Markets are driven by what the finance profession calls “systemic risk,” that is, a risk affecting all stocks, such as currency problems, deflation, or central bank actions. Between 2007 and 2016, I calculate that 54% of change in the prices of Shanghai Composite Index stocks was driven by a common, “systemic” factor. During 2017, again by my calculations, the “systemic” factor explained only 28% of their change. Investors, that is, looked for value at the individual stock level, rather than responding to overall risk.
When stock-picking replaces concern about the currency, the central bank, or the overall growth outlook, some stocks rise and some fall, but the overall level of the index is less jumpy. That is one thing volatility captures as a measure of risk. Low volatility in the Shanghai Composite Index, in other words, shows that investors are trading Chinese stocks the same way that they trade stocks in developed markets—on the basis of valuation, management and growth prospects, rather than as stand-ins for fears about government policy.
That is a gigantic milestone in China’s economic maturity. It suggests that the equity market can become a more important source of capital for China’s growth, replacing corporate debt which grew too fast as China compensated for the 2008 world financial crisis. It implies that the cost of capital for Chinese companies will fall as the risk premium on their obligations shrinks.
China equity market risk is now on par with developed markets. But Chinese stocks remain much cheaper. The forward-looking price earnings ratio for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is only 8.5, compared to 19 for the S&P 500. When Chinese stocks were twice as volatile as American stocks,that made sense. Now Chinese stocks should outperform.
I found this an interesting proposal,but why not announce it when the deal is done?
"........
China is in talks to sell Germany state-of-the-art machinery and technology critical in the manufacture of high-performance jet engines, a senior government scientist has revealed
The machinery produced turbine blades capable of withstanding temperatures several hundred degrees Celsius higher than the melting point of metallic alloys, the scientist said.
The scientist, who is involved in the negotiations, asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Turbine blades convert heat generated by combusted fuel into the energy that propels a plane. The blades are one of the most important components in modern aircraft, both military and civilian, and their quality determines how safe, powerful and durable a jet engine will be.
The technological progress could be a very important step for made-in-China jet engines, with China now the world’s largest market for commercial aircraft. Thousands of planes are on order from Airbus and Boeing, and China is also developing its own C919 passenger jet.
In recent years, tremendous leaps in blade-processing technology, combined with breakthroughs in alloy casting and aerodynamic design, have allowed China to produce a brand-new series of powerful military jet engines………..."
"........
China is in talks to sell Germany state-of-the-art machinery and technology critical in the manufacture of high-performance jet engines, a senior government scientist has revealed
The machinery produced turbine blades capable of withstanding temperatures several hundred degrees Celsius higher than the melting point of metallic alloys, the scientist said.
The scientist, who is involved in the negotiations, asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Turbine blades convert heat generated by combusted fuel into the energy that propels a plane. The blades are one of the most important components in modern aircraft, both military and civilian, and their quality determines how safe, powerful and durable a jet engine will be.
The technological progress could be a very important step for made-in-China jet engines, with China now the world’s largest market for commercial aircraft. Thousands of planes are on order from Airbus and Boeing, and China is also developing its own C919 passenger jet.
In recent years, tremendous leaps in blade-processing technology, combined with breakthroughs in alloy casting and aerodynamic design, have allowed China to produce a brand-new series of powerful military jet engines………..."
So scared of competition. China should shut Apple out of China until the US reciprocates with Huawei.
“Political pressure” reportedly kills Huawei/AT&T smartphone deal
Spying concerns from members of congress means AT&T won't be selling Huawei phones.
- 1/9/2018, 10:50 AM
The Huawei Mate S.
Reports from and other outlets say that AT&T was ready to announce a distribution deal with Chinese smartphone maker Huawei, but the deal fell through at the last minute.
The deal would have seen Huawei phones bundled with service deals in AT&T stores, as carrier stores are the primary way US consumers buy phones. The two companies were ready to announce the deal at the currently ongoing CES trade show in Las Vegas.
Huawei is the number three smartphone vendor worldwide, behind only Apple and Samsung, but the company struggles in the US. Huawei currently sells to consumers online, but the lack of carrier deals has made the company basically irrelevant in the US market. Outside of the US, Huawei is a massive company, making not only phones but also its own line of "HiSilicon" SoCs. The company the largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer in the world, but about Huawei's relationship to the Chinese government has mostly kept its equipment out of the US.
A report from claims that the same "political pressure" situation happened here. Apparently members of the US Senate and House Intelligence Committee sent a letter to the FCC citing a committee report of Huawei's alleged ties to the Chinese government, and the letter said that "additional work by the Intelligence Committees on this topic only reinforces concerns regarding Huawei and Chinese espionage."
Huawei has continually denied allegations that it spies for China.
I wonder how a consumer phone on a public network would be a security issue
In regarding to the post about Japanese renewable energy, I am wondering if corruption or non-flexible policy by the government or just the normal Japanese corporate culture that is really stalling the improvements on the electrical generation.
BIG NEWS FROM CHINA. You can only call "WOLF" so many times before somebody notice. Naysayers keeps losing credibility.
Big News From China: Its Implosion Didn't Happen
Somehow the nation once seen as a major swing factor has become the rock on which global growth depends.
by
Daniel Moss
January 18, 2018 5:00 PM -05
Address your thank-you notes to Zhou Xiaochuan.
Photographer: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
China's economic performance is all about what hasn't happened. That's huge.
The world's No. 2 economy didn't implode under a mountain of debt, nor did trade tensions with the U.S. bring exports undone. And there certainly hasn't been the trade war many feared a year ago. The country's growing reliance on services and consumption as an engine of growth -- a little-understood phenomenon in the West -- wasn't reversed. Kudos.
All of these non-events add up to a big deal: The place that accounts for more than a third of global growth is showing remarkable economic resilience and . That's in part a product of, part a contributor to, the synchronized global upswing we hear so much about. Gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in 2017, up from 6.7 percent a year earlier. Things looked pretty good as the year drew to a close; GDP gained 6.8 percent in the final three months of the year.
Sure, there are folks who say the numbers are cooked and that it's all just a matter of time before the Chinese model comes unglued. And it might happen. The figures do, to be fair, show a remarkable stability at the headline level, . It's also true that China critics have been singing the same tune for a while now and the country hasn't collapsed. The worst hasn't come remotely close to passing.
So China has gone from a swing factor in the global economic order something more like the rock underpinning the global outlook. A great reason for policymakers around the planet to fire off some thank-you notes before People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's likely retirement this year.
There are two lessons from all this. The first is that the global economy is an incredibly interconnected and complex place and can't just be undone by slogans like "the end of globalization" that were so trendy a year ago.
The second is broader than economics: China puts experienced policy practitioners in charge, from the president's office on down. They do the hard work and don't rejoice in sowing chaos and confusion. As a result, China is a source of stability, not a threat to it.
Acknowledging this is not the same as becoming a China cheerleader. China faces significant challenges, not least of which are environmental degradation along with an aging and shrinking workforce. But as one travels around the world and talks to policymakers, investors, and current and former officials, there is the unmistakable sense that China is on the rise and the West … well, "muddling through" is probably a charitable way to put it.
Few serious people think that the U.S., a proxy for the West, is remotely capable at this juncture of launching something on the scale of . More corrosive is an idea becoming fashionable that democracies just can't do big things any more. We'll see how that plays out. Declinism is rife throughout American history -- and yet the U.S. keeps bouncing back.
Still, this moment does belong to China. Economics numbers like those we saw this week undergird that notion. On my wish list: stirrings of inflation. They'll have to come eventually. Want to bet they'll emanate from China?
Big News From China: Its Implosion Didn't Happen
Somehow the nation once seen as a major swing factor has become the rock on which global growth depends.
by
Daniel Moss
January 18, 2018 5:00 PM -05
Address your thank-you notes to Zhou Xiaochuan.
Photographer: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
China's economic performance is all about what hasn't happened. That's huge.
The world's No. 2 economy didn't implode under a mountain of debt, nor did trade tensions with the U.S. bring exports undone. And there certainly hasn't been the trade war many feared a year ago. The country's growing reliance on services and consumption as an engine of growth -- a little-understood phenomenon in the West -- wasn't reversed. Kudos.
All of these non-events add up to a big deal: The place that accounts for more than a third of global growth is showing remarkable economic resilience and . That's in part a product of, part a contributor to, the synchronized global upswing we hear so much about. Gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in 2017, up from 6.7 percent a year earlier. Things looked pretty good as the year drew to a close; GDP gained 6.8 percent in the final three months of the year.
Sure, there are folks who say the numbers are cooked and that it's all just a matter of time before the Chinese model comes unglued. And it might happen. The figures do, to be fair, show a remarkable stability at the headline level, . It's also true that China critics have been singing the same tune for a while now and the country hasn't collapsed. The worst hasn't come remotely close to passing.
So China has gone from a swing factor in the global economic order something more like the rock underpinning the global outlook. A great reason for policymakers around the planet to fire off some thank-you notes before People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's likely retirement this year.
There are two lessons from all this. The first is that the global economy is an incredibly interconnected and complex place and can't just be undone by slogans like "the end of globalization" that were so trendy a year ago.
The second is broader than economics: China puts experienced policy practitioners in charge, from the president's office on down. They do the hard work and don't rejoice in sowing chaos and confusion. As a result, China is a source of stability, not a threat to it.
Acknowledging this is not the same as becoming a China cheerleader. China faces significant challenges, not least of which are environmental degradation along with an aging and shrinking workforce. But as one travels around the world and talks to policymakers, investors, and current and former officials, there is the unmistakable sense that China is on the rise and the West … well, "muddling through" is probably a charitable way to put it.
Few serious people think that the U.S., a proxy for the West, is remotely capable at this juncture of launching something on the scale of . More corrosive is an idea becoming fashionable that democracies just can't do big things any more. We'll see how that plays out. Declinism is rife throughout American history -- and yet the U.S. keeps bouncing back.
Still, this moment does belong to China. Economics numbers like those we saw this week undergird that notion. On my wish list: stirrings of inflation. They'll have to come eventually. Want to bet they'll emanate from China?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The BBC’s comments section on the story is filled with barely concealed jealousy and denial masquerading as ‘objectivity’.
It is also striking that in the aftermath of the Carrilian collapse, whenever the debate in the UK comes anywhere near nationalisation or the suggestion that the government could or should do more infrastructure projects rather than contracting out to the private sector for vast profits; without fail that line of ‘dangerous’ thought gets shut down immediately with the blatant falsehood that ‘no government on earth gets directly involved in delivering major infrastructure projects’.
By all means, completely ‘forget’ about China. I mean China is only the world’s biggest infrastructure builder and the country that most consistently and efficiently deliver major infrastructure projects on budget and on time at home and abroad. How could that qualify them to stand as any meaningful example for the UK to study!
If there is one single factor that most contributes to China’s astonishing speed at closing the gap with the west, it is this. China doesn’t hold any ideological or political baggage, they just look at what works best and learns from that.
In the West, if an example or solution, irrespective of how effectively it actually works, doesn’t pass its ‘free media’s’ self-imposed and policed ideological and political purity tests, it is ignored as if it didn’t happen at best, and casually dismissed with some snide cheap shot that plays to tired old stereotypes about human rights, the environment or rule of law etc, most of which no longer applies, if they ever really applied in the first place.