Chinese Economics Thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
there are some things that even the most advanced robots can't do that a human child can do easily.
I was watching this documentary on making shoes :) .. pretty much 100% of the shoe was mechanically automated and robotically made EXCEPT the last part. Stringing the shoes through the holes and then tying the laces LOL.
A human at this point in time can still do it much faster and much more efficient even for mass production.

I doubt it will last long .....
 
now I read
Economic Watch: China's economy on steady track despite softened momentum
Xinhua| 2017-11-15 19:17:38
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China is on a steady track to meet its 2017 growth target despite some short-term fluctuations as the government focuses on quality over speed in its pursuit of economic growth.

After a strong performance in the first three quarters, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed growth of factory output, investment and consumption in October all slowed a notch from the previous month.

Industrial value-added output expanded 6.2 percent year on year in October, slowing from 6.6-percent growth in September. Retail sales of consumer goods grew 10 percent, down from 10.3 percent in September.

In the January-October period, fixed-asset investment grew 7.3 percent year on year, down 0.2 percentage points from the January-September level.

Zhang Jun, economist with Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said the moderation of the indicators was "a short-term fluctuation due to seasonal factors and base effect, and would not change the trend of a stable economic growth."

China's economic performance has been generally stable with improved economic structure and quality growth, and it is totally possible for the economy to maintain a stable and positive trend next year, NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua told a press conference.

China has aimed for annual economic growth of around 6.5 percent for 2017, down from the 6.7-percent pace recorded in 2016.

With traditional growth engines losing steam and old growth patterns leading to issues such as environmental degradation and economic inequality, China is pressing ahead with a new model of quality economic development that draws strength from consumption, the services sector and innovation.

NBS data showed the country's economic rebalancing and industrial upgrades continued apace, injecting vitality into the economy.

Excess capacity cuts have exceeded targets in the bloated steel and coal sectors, while advanced capacity steadily expanded its share.

Corporate leverage was down. Industrial firms above a designated size saw their combined debt ratio fall 0.6 percentage points year on year to 55.7 percent by the end of September.

High-tech industries and equipment manufacturing saw their output jump 13.4 percent and 11.5 percent year on year, respectively, in the January-October period, outpacing the overall industrial output growth.

Despite the slowdown in the October indicators, employment remained stable. Nearly 12 million new jobs were created in cities during the January-October period, already exceeding the annual target of 11 million.

Citing pressure such as slowing credit growth as China focused on financial stability and deleveraging, and a downturn in the real estate sector, UBS economist Wang Tao expected China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter from 6.8 percent in the third quarter.

"Resilient consumption and a positive net trade contribution should offer some support... and we see macro policies staying largely stable," said Wang in a report.

Wang said the drive to contain financial risk and supply-side structural reform, including excess capacity reductions and stricter environmental rules, may weigh on growth.

Continued efforts to contain financial leverage and asset bubbles since the second half of 2016 have raised financing costs in the real economy, which may erode profit margins of the corporate sector.

Policy makers should balance the competing aims of short-term, credit-fueled growth and long-term policy measures to increase the resilience of the financial system and to reduce and eventually reverse the growth of leverage in the economy, said Zhang Jun.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said at a symposium last week that China would maintain the stability of its macroeconomic policy, and continue reform and opening up in 2018.

The premier said China should prioritize quality and efficiency when developing its economy, and deepen supply-side structural reform as well as accelerating cultivation of new growth engines and the transformation of traditional growth drivers.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
there are some things that even the most advanced robots can't do that a human child can do easily.
I was watching this documentary on making shoes :) .. pretty much 100% of the shoe was mechanically automated and robotically made EXCEPT the last part. Stringing the shoes through the holes and then tying the laces LOL.
A human at this point in time can still do it much faster and much more efficient even for mass production.

Or you can just make self-lacing Back to the Future shoes :D.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
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, CONTRIBUTOR
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(Photo by Jason Lee-Pool/Getty Images)

In March this year, representatives from 65 countries gathered in Beijing for a two day summit to showcase China’s $1 trillion
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.

Dubbed “the new Silk Road,” OBOR aims to build a network of trade routes connecting Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe – a collective GDP of $2.1 trillion and 4.4 billion consumers.

In the months since,
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. Documentaries have focused on the
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, while analysts have highlighted China’s need to absorb excess domestic capacity, sustain employment and cement strategic ties to support its "Peaceful Rise" as the region’s economic powerhouse.





With China making a concerted push to expand its economic sphere well beyond its geographic borders, what opportunities or challenges does this present for businessmen and corporate executives?

Age of adventure

Stripping away the complexity and political narrative of OBOR, we find a marketing strategy that delivers sophisticated branding, meaningful product segments and a sustainable business model.

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The Silk Road brand is deeply embedded in history and carries positive memories of the productive exchange of goods, culture, religion and friendship that formed a bridge between Eastern and Western civilization.

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Visitors (C) look at a replica of sailing fleets exhibited along side of a replica of a 15th-century treasure ship used by legendary Chinese explorer Admiral Zheng He dominated at the new maritime museum in Singapore on October 6, 2011. (ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images)

It comes too with brand ambassadors like Venetian explorer
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and Chinese admiral
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, whose Ming Dynasty treasure fleets visited ports as far as the east coast of Africa in what is portrayed as a model of peaceful trade and prosperity.

The entertainment industry was one of the first to recognize the allure of the Silk Road. In 2015, Chinese megastar
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where he starred as a Silk Road frontier general who protects a city of flourishing traders from a corrupt Roman leader. While one might criticize the propagandist nature of the story, Dragon Blade was a $65 million marketing investment that yielded a box office return in excess of $120 million.

Value proposition

Great marketing strategies need to offer meaningful Customer Value Propositions that are anchored in market insights. Likewise, every economy needs a strong value proposition for sustainable growth.

For the emerging markets of Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa, as well as the newly industrialized countries of Southeast Asia, foreign infrastructure investment is a key priority to drive economic transformation.

While many casual observers view OBOR as another trade agreement, its vision runs far deeper. It aims to build sustainable long-term markets by first investing in the trading nation’s infrastructure, followed by investments in education, healthcare and technology to win over the local "consumers."

For businesses and corporate executives contemplating where and how to compete in OBOR, the answer can be found through strategic segmentation, dissecting the opportunities by market, industry and projects.

Open platform initiative

Aligning competencies and competitive advantage against a product/market segment is a good starting point. After all, the essence of a marketing strategy is about the concentration of limited resources and focusing effort into an area that provides the greatest chance of commercial success.

At the highest level of thinking by the Chinese government, OBOR is, by design, an inclusive open platform initiative. While the early economic participants may be the partner cities and ports, the intent is to make OBOR the standard platform for international trade.

For example, by helping countries like Sri Lanka build a coal-powered energy power plant, it will help meet the energy needs of a developing economy while creating a long-term customer for China, which produces 48% of the planet’s coal.

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In this photo taken on June 2, 2017, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank vice president Thierry de Longuemar speaks during an interview at the AIIB offices in Beijing. (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP/Getty Images)

To fund the many initiatives associated with OBOR, the
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(AIIB) was launched in tandem to provide the required financing to close infrastructure deals with partnering countries.

Similar to the model adopted by automotive companies who have an in-house financing arm, AIIB aims to be a profit contributor to the initiative. As with all complex deals, the consequential up or downstream business in financial, legal and insurance services will follow closely, furthering the economic impact.

At the core of OBOR, China is offering a simple “Economic Rejuvenation in a Box” partnership, anchored on its competitive advantage in accelerating infrastructure using its own economic resurgence as a model.

This is supported with a clear branding concept, industry/market segment sizing and borrowed business models that add up to making OBOR China’s ultimate marketing strategy.

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solarz

Brigadier
there are some things that even the most advanced robots can't do that a human child can do easily.
I was watching this documentary on making shoes :) .. pretty much 100% of the shoe was mechanically automated and robotically made EXCEPT the last part. Stringing the shoes through the holes and then tying the laces LOL.
A human at this point in time can still do it much faster and much more efficient even for mass production.

This is all just software, and the beautiful (and scary) thing about software is that even the most complex program can be copied and distributed easily. All it takes is one guy to solve the software problem, and almost overnight things will change.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
How come an American company goes broke but becomes a success after being taken over by a Chinese company in the same activity? Was it lack of investment? The quality of the owners in some other respect?
Same as what happened to Volvo car in the hands of Ford vs. Geely. Volvo's global sale has increased a lot since taken over by Geely. Competence of the owner must be the reason.
 
now I read
Is China's public holiday system good for the economy? 2017-11-16 16:43 GMT+8
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Earlier this month, China’s 2018 public holiday schedule was released, showing little change to a model in place since 2000, which sees hundreds of millions of workers take time off en-masse for two “Golden Week” periods at Spring Festival and for the October 1 National Holiday.

With factory lines coming to a standstill, immense pressure on tourism and infrastructure and sudden peaks in consumer spending, are China’s national holidays good or bad for the economy?

Biggest human migration on Earth

From February 15, 2018, hundreds of millions of people will take part in the biggest human migration on Earth for Spring Festival. 2017 saw some three billion trips made, according to Xinhua, putting immense pressure on transportation and leaving offices, factories and schools practically empty for a week.

The same will happen again from October 1. The 2017 Golden Week National Holiday saw 705 million trips taken, with China’s National Tourism Administration estimating a total spend of as much as 600 billion yuan (90 billion US dollars).

While Spring Festival means seven consecutive days off for most workers, the period affected can be much longer – companies ramp up production ahead of the holiday to make up for the lost week, and Spring Festival bonuses for many employees is a significant expense. A Financial Times study of 34 different cities found that in 2016, the average year-end bonus for white-collar workers was 12,821 yuan (1,930 US dollars).

Economic data around Spring Festival this year was reasonably positive, but previous Golden Weeks in the last five years have seen contracting PMI figures (Purchasing Managers Index – a manufacturing indicator), which Xinhua has directly linked to the week-long holiday, blaming it for “distorting economic data.”

In six of the last seven years, overall GDP quarterly growth has dropped slightly between Q4 and Q1 according to the National Bureau of Statistics, coinciding with the Spring Festival period.

The rise in consumption that comes with the Golden Week system may provide a quick boost to the economy, but a huge amount of work is put into ensuring China’s hundreds of millions of travelers can move about safely.

In 2016, Xinhua reported that 214,000 police officers were on the roads to deal with Golden Week traffic, while historic treasures like the Palace Museum in Beijing have had to introduce caps on visitors because of concerns over the effects of mass tourism.

There have previously been calls for a rethink on national holidays both among netizens and experts, with Xinhua reporting that as far back as 2006, Cai Jiming, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and professor at Tsinghua University, proposed shortening the holidays down to just one day.

However, people do need a rest, especially after 600,000 people died in 2014 due to overworking in China, according to Sixth Tone. Besides the 11 days of public holidays, Chinese workers typically can take five days off per year after working for 1-10 years, and longer-term employees can receive more annual leave accordingly.

Balancing productivity and a happy labor force

If Chinese authorities ever did look to abandon the current Golden Week system, what are the other options? While countries in Western Europe have fewer public holidays but more paid leave, the US is one of the only developed economies to leave all paid vacation time to the discretion of the employer.

Various studies have shown that without a legally enforced paid vacation system, Americans are reluctant to take the annual leave their employers give them. A study by Glassdoor this year found the average US worker only takes 54 percent of the holiday time they are given by their company.

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has struggled to boost productivity, with the country’s notorious culture of long working hours and overtime believed to be the cause. In 2015 laws were passed that required companies to force their employees to take all of their annual leave.

Recent years have seen more innovative approaches to trying to find the right balance to vacations – which means achieving maximum productivity while keeping staff happy and focused. LinkedIn, Netflix and Virgin are among the most high-profile companies to introduce “unlimited vacation” policies.

While it sounds ideal – staff can take as much time off as they like – the reality, according to the Financial Times, is that workers actually spend more time in the office, under pressure because of heavy workloads and not wanting to inconvenience colleagues or approach their bosses.

For China’s economy, greater importance is being attached to the quality of growth, rather than quantity. Maintaining productivity and keeping the workforce satisfied will be essential to achieving that goal, and any moves to change the way the country rests and relaxes would have to carefully weigh up those two factors.
 

B.I.B.

Captain
Forgot where I read it at this year's congress meeting there was no mention of any expectation on what the following years GDP growth could be like full stop. Has anyone got an explanation for why this might be if it was true.?
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
From Brian Wang. china is closing the gap on percapita income with lower tier of EU
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China is two Europes and richest provinces catching up to middle income Europe
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| November 18, 2017 |
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China (1.4 billion) has nearly twice the population of Europe (742 million). The populations of China’s 33 provinces is comparable but larger than the 44 countries of Europe.

China will have an overall per capita GDP at the end of 2017 of about $9000 compared to $24000 per capita GDP in Europe. Europe has slow GDP growth of 1-2% per year. China should be at $12500 exchange rate GDP per capita in 2021. This will be about half the GDP per capita level of Europe.

On a per capita PPP GDP level, Europe is at $32000 now while China is at $17000.

China has a narrow range of GDP per person than Europe. The richest European country, Luxembourg is over 50 times richer than the poorest, Moldava on a per person basis. China richest province is about 5-6 times richer than its poorest.

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China’s poorest province Gansu is richer than Armenia, Ukraine and Moldova.

Cyprus and Slovenia are at about the European average for per capita GDP. They are both slightly richer than Portugal.

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2016 statistics

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Beijing, Shanghai And Tainjin are at or slightly above the Cyprus level based upon PPP per capita GDP in 2017. Combined they have a population of 60 million.

Jiangsu with about the population of Germany at 80 million will be above the Portugal level of PPP per person.

Beijing, Shanghai And Tainjin should pass Portugal on exchange rate basis per capita GDP in 2018.

By 2024, the top 7 or 8 provinces with over 300 million should be pass the Portugal level of exchange rate basis GDP per capita.

By 2027, the ten richest provinces in China with about 400 million people will be at about the middle income level of Europe Portugal to Italy level. The richest cities in China will be like France in per capita income.

China has
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Poland is the 8th most populace European country with 38 million. The 9th most populace European country is Romania with 19.7 million. Only 5 of China’s provinces have populations lower than Romania.
 
now I read
Economic Watch: China's home prices remain stable as control policies resume
Xinhua| 2017-11-18 22:14:19
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China's property market remained stable in October with
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falling or posting slower growth in major cities amid tough control policies, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Saturday.

On a yearly basis, new residential
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saw slower growth in 13 of the 15 major cities considered the "hottest markets," NBS data showed.

On a month-on-month basis, new residential housing prices fell in 9 of the 15 cities.

New home prices in Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chengdu climbed 0.1, 0.3, and 0.7 percent, respectively.

Of the 70 large and medium-sized cities surveyed, home prices in 50 cities rose month on month, compared with 44 in September.

NBS statistician Liu Jianwei said that housing prices were "generally stable" in major cities as control policies in different cities continued to take effect.

New residential housing prices in the country's first-tier cities dropped 0.1 percent compared with a month earlier, while second-hand home prices remained flat.

On a yearly basis, both new and second-hand home prices in the first-tier cities reported slower growth for the 13th consecutive month in October.

New home prices in smaller second- and third-tier cities both rose 0.3 percent month on month, higher than the growth in September.

The data provides fresh evidence that China's property market boom is running out of steam as the government continues cooling measures to squeeze asset bubbles.

Since late last year, dozens of local governments have passed or expanded restrictions on house purchases and increased the minimum down payment required for a mortgage.

The property market was also cooled by relatively tightened liquidity conditions as the government moved to contain leverage and risk in the financial system.

Data from the People's Bank of China showed that loans to China's real estate sector continued to grow at a slower pace, with outstanding loans up 22.8 percent year on year to 31.1 trillion yuan (4.7 trillion U.S. dollars) by the end of September, 1.4 percentage points lower than the rate seen at the end of June.

Despite the cooling measures, China's economy expanded by a robust 6.9 percent year on year in the first three quarters, well above the government target of 6.5 percent for the year.

Recent policies have showed the government will not loosen its stance in curbing property speculation, and that will limit the upward potential for housing prices, said Bank of Communications in a research note.

Authorities stepped up measures to act against irregularities in property financing earlier this month, prohibiting property developers, real estate agencies as well as Internet finance and micro-loan companies from offering illicit down payment financing for buyers.

Using funds obtained through channels such as consumer loans for property purchases will also be banned, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

Earlier NBS data showed that property sales in terms of floor area climbed 8.2 percent in the first 10 months, retreating 2.1 percentage points from the January-September level.

By the end of October, 602.58 million square meters of property remained unsold, down by 8.82 million square meters from a month earlier.

Taking into account the tightened liquidity condition and the fact that more cities imposed housing purchase restrictions in October, sales will further trend down at year end, Bank of Communications predicted.
 
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