Chinese Economics Thread

[sanblvd]

In order to have a protect and develop model, the country needs a large educated population and resources to start. There aren't that many continent sized countries left that can be self sufficient to develop their economies. Unless a EU style government forms for Africa and pool their resources, it will be hard for them to follow the protect and develop model. Same for south america.

Protect and develop won't work anymore, if the goal of this model is to shield your own industry from competition while you catch up with your competition, then you will only get further left behind as your competition will gain even further advantage with their existing technology and automation.

If the secondary goal of protect and develop is to just for providing jobs for your own people, then that would work in the short term but it will be very inefficient in the long run, it would be like the Qing Dynasty refuse to open up and still producing by handcraft while the West are producing by assemble line, as time goes on your own technology will get further behind with 0 export potential, while your competition dominate rest of the world trade and eventually move on to a brand new technology that you wouldn't never dream of coming up with. And its only a matter of time that your own country's economy is so backward that other people starting to mess with you.

There is really no good solutions for nations that missed this old development ladder, China was the last and they are literally destroying the ladder as they climb up. The only possible solution I can think of is for rest of the smaller nations to became vessel kingdoms to the top dogs, providing natural resources and sovereign rights, while try to survive on negotiate better returns from their dominate country. That and maybe some tourism currency, and hope that their master country will grow weak and soft, became unstable and destroy themselves in a civil war, so the vessel kingdoms might have a chance to take power from the chaos.

 

[vincent]

Protect and develop won't work anymore, if the goal of this model is to shield your own industry from competition while you catch up with your competition, then you will only get further left behind as your competition will gain even further advantage with their existing technology and automation.

If the secondary goal of protect and develop is to just for providing jobs for your own people, then that would work in the short term but it will be very inefficient in the long run, it would be like the Qing Dynasty refuse to open up and still producing by handcraft while the West are producing by assemble line, as time goes on your own technology will get further behind with 0 export potential, while your competition dominate rest of the world trade and eventually move on to a brand new technology that you wouldn't never dream of coming up with. And its only a matter of time that your own country's economy is so backward that other people starting to mess with you.

Do you know why it is so hard for new players to enter a mature market? The incumbents will lower the price of their products to kill off the newbie. Newbies can only survive if they have some overwelming advantages like lower production cost or more advance technologies. Chinese government is encouraging import substitutions by providing tons of money to companies, keep them alive till they can stand on their own feet. Don't think many countries can afford to or got balls to resist the West to do that

 

[sanblvd]

Do you know why it is so hard for new players to enter a mature market? The incumbents will lower the price of their products to kill off the newbie. Newbies can only survive if they have some overwelming advantages like lower production cost or more advance technologies. Chinese government is encouraging import substitutions by providing tons of money to companies, keep them alive till they can stand on their own feet. Don't think many countries can afford to or got balls to resist the West to do that

You are not really saying anything the contradict what I typed, which of course, more reason that protect and develop is not going to work anymore for anyone that is not already developed.

 

[vincent]

You are not really saying anything the contradict what I typed, which of course, more reason that protect and develop is not going to work anymore for anyone that is not already developed.

Protect and develop does work as long as the government set an expiration date for the protection. The government should also prevent underhand tactics like cutting off supplies if a customer uses a competitor's products

 

[AndrewS]

Protect and develop won't work anymore, if the goal of this model is to shield your own industry from competition while you catch up with your competition, then you will only get further left behind as your competition will gain even further advantage with their existing technology and automation.

If the secondary goal of protect and develop is to just for providing jobs for your own people, then that would work in the short term but it will be very inefficient in the long run, it would be like the Qing Dynasty refuse to open up and still producing by handcraft while the West are producing by assemble line, as time goes on your own technology will get further behind with 0 export potential, while your competition dominate rest of the world trade and eventually move on to a brand new technology that you wouldn't never dream of coming up with. And its only a matter of time that your own country's economy is so backward that other people starting to mess with you.

There is really no good solutions for nations that missed this old development ladder, China was the last and they are literally destroying the ladder as they climb up. The only possible solution I can think of is for rest of the smaller nations to became vessel kingdoms to the top dogs, providing natural resources and sovereign rights, while try to survive on negotiate better returns from their dominate country. That and maybe some tourism currency, and hope that their master country will grow weak and soft, became unstable and destroy themselves in a civil war, so the vessel kingdoms might have a chance to take power from the chaos.

I think the old development model worked because transport costs were so much higher in the past, so local production had an huge inbuilt advantage.

But now, transportation costs are typically only 5-15% of the end product price in CN/US for example.

Plus AI and robotics are eliminating unskilled jobs like labour intensive manufacturing jobs for surplus farmers, which were previously the first step to industrialisation for many countries.

And in India this year, we also see the BPO and IT industry is now shrinking the few jobs it has created so far, because AI is replacing higher level jobs as well. Yet even India hasn't gotten on the AI/robotics path that represents the next industrial revolution after the computer age. So what about the other developing countries that don't even have a BPO industry to leverage?

There are a large number of reports that are predicting that China and the USA will reap the majority of the benefits of this era
because they are so far ahead of everyone else.

Also, I don't think vassal kingdom analogies have any relevance anymore

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
Chinese premier stresses efforts to expand employment Xinhua| 2017-09-20 22:44:34

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The State Council said Wednesday that it would step up efforts to expand employment.

"China should encourage entrepreneurship and innovation to create jobs, and help key groups such as college graduates find employment opportunities," according to a statement issued after a State Council executive meeting presided over by Premier Li Keqiang.

"Facing economic downward pressure in recent years, China has made employment a top priority and taken more proactive employment policies, which helped the country add more than 13 million urban jobs every year," the statement said.

It said that demand for jobs was still high and there remained many structural problems, which called for increased effort to improve employment.

Entrepreneurship and innovation should be encouraged to create jobs, with measures to be rolled out to support migrant workers to start their own businesses back home, it said

Pro-employment policies should be made to help key groups such as college graduates and laid-off workers from overcapacity cuts.

Vocational education should be improved to meet the demand of the job market, while labor and social security policies should keep up with new employment trends.

Supervision of the labor market should be strengthened to protect the legitimate right of job seekers and migrant workers, the statement said.

At the meeting, the State Council also decided to establish more pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce in cities with development potential.

Since the approval of the first pilot zone more than two years ago, the new models experimented there have brought valuable experiences for nationwide application, according to the statement.

China already has 13 pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce in cities including Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin, where new models for technical standards, business procedures and regulatory mechanisms are implemented.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, in 2016 the total trade volume via cross-border e-commerce in the 13 pilot zones more than doubled year-on-year to reach 163.7 billion yuan (24.9 billion U.S. dollars).

The meeting also decided to extend the transition period for supervision of cross-border e-commerce retail imports an extra year, to the end of 2018.

 

[advill]

PM Lee HL of Singapore visit to Beijing reinforces the Economic, Trade & Investment ties with China. He met President XI, PM Li Keqiang and an old friend Zhang Dejiang (anti-graft czar) in the midst of China's busy period leading to the 19th Party Congress next month. This bodes well for China's continued good relationship with Singapore, regardless of past hiccups. We live in the same Asian Region and we must continue with the vision of Peace, Progress and Prosperity.

 

[sanblvd]

So what about the other developing countries that don't even have a BPO industry to leverage?

There are a large number of reports that are predicting that China and the USA will reap the majority of the benefits of this era
because they are so far ahead of everyone else.

Also, I don't think vassal kingdom analogies have any relevance anymore

That's right, only US, Germany and China stands a chance and they will be taking away jobs from rest of everyone else.

And yes vassal country still apply and it will be more relevant than ever in the future, they will have no real manufacturing ability to create jobs for their uneducated populations, I'm seeing a future where they will became raw material supplier to nations that is capable of advanced manufacturing, and if they do not submit to those stronger nations that is all they will be, but if they do submit, I think the stronger nations will take them under their wing and throw them some bone by opening up some factory there to process some supply chain stuff, where the end material will still be exported to the strong country for final advanced manufacturing. And of course the dominate country will provide subsidies to those vessel country by means of discount goodies for them to consume, this means their income will never match the dominate nations. This and other sectors like agriculture and tourism which they can develop as well.

 

[AndrewS]

That's right, only US, Germany and China stands a chance and they will be taking away jobs from rest of everyone else.

And yes vassal country still apply and it will be more relevant than ever in the future, they will have no real manufacturing ability to create jobs for their uneducated populations, I'm seeing a future where they will became raw material supplier to nations that is capable of advanced manufacturing, and if they do not submit to those stronger nations that is all they will be, but if they do submit, I think the stronger nations will take them under their wing and throw them some bone by opening up some factory there to process some supply chain stuff, where the end material will still be exported to the strong country for final advanced manufacturing. And of course the dominate country will provide subsidies to those vessel country by means of discount goodies for them to consume, this means their income will never match the dominate nations. This and other sectors like agriculture and tourism which they can develop as well.

Raw materials are not the basis of an economy, unless you have a really small population.

And I still disagree on countries being economic vassals. Today's decreased transportation and communication costs, combined with a relatively liberal trade/investment order means that most countries do have enough freedom to avoid becoming outright vassals.

But I think it really does come down to providing a stable and supportive business environment, then encouraging R&D with a highly educated and trained population.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China Focus: Facial recognition debuts at China's banks
Xinhua| 2017-09-20 15:45:59

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At the Agricultural Bank of China's (ABC) three outlets in Jinan City, cards are no longer needed to withdraw money. A quick scan of the face will do.

"One of the best things about facial recognition technology is that you don't have to carry your cards with you for petty deposits and withdrawals," said Xu Yanru, lobby manager of ABC's Heping Road outlet in Jinan, capital of east China's Shandong Province.

ABC has introduced facial recognition technology at its automatic teller machines (ATM). Other banks, such as the China Merchants Bank and the Construction Bank of China, have also introduced similar technology in their ATMS.

"All you have to do is to press the facial recognition withdrawal button, scan your face in the camera, enter your phone number or ID number, and enter your transaction amount and password," said Zhang Baojing, a banking manager at ABC.

Zhang said that the technology can eliminate the risk of having bank cards illegally copied, and lower the possibility of cards getting eaten by ATMS.

"It can enhance the customer experience," Zhang said.

Technology staff at ABC said that facial recognition is safe because it also requires ID numbers or phone numbers and passwords. In addition, customers' photos will be compared with those in the public security system. The latest infrared cameras also lower the risk of illegal activities.

The ABC limits the daily withdrawal to 3,000 yuan (457 U.S. dollars) via the technology. The bank plans to install the facial recognition technology at 24,064 outlets across the country, according to web portal Sohu.com.

ABC is not the first bank in China to introduce the facial recognition technology. In 2015, China Merchants Bank started using the technology in the southern metropolis of Shenzhen. Last year, it expanded the service to about 1,000 ATMs in 106 cities.

But the new service faces some difficulties, such as high maintenance costs.

"Many senior citizens might find it hard to trust or get used to this way of withdrawing money," said Yang Gan of the Smart City Research Institute in southwest China's Guizhou Province.

But Yang said it will only be a matter of time before the technology permeates society.

"In the future, payment via facial recognition and mobile payment will be complementary," Yang said.

In China, the rapid development of facial recognition technology has led to its use in a number of innovative ways. Beijing's Temple of Heaven has used it in toilets to deter toilet paper theft. In Jinan City, traffic police have installed facial scanners at intersections to catch and shame jaywalkers. Supermarkets in some big cities have been using the technology at bag deposit areas.

Beijing Normal University debuted its first facial scanners in April and expanded their use in all dorms during the summer break. Currently, 70 percent of students have had their face recorded. A facial scan is required for new freshman students, according to the school.