Chinese Economics Thread

Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by Norfolk, Jan 10, 2008.

  1. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Junior Member
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    On the electricity supply side regarding Wind and Solar.

    Transmission and storage are legitimate issues, but if we have millions of battery powered cars which only charge themselves when there is surplus electricity, that is half the problem solved.

    That will kill gas power plants first, then coal afterwards.


     
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  2. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Junior Member
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    On the policy side, we can see Europe, China and India all phasing out combustion engine vehicles in favour of electric cars.

    These countries represent the majority of global automobile demand now, and in the future.


     
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  3. t2contra
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    t2contra Senior Member

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    I can't believe we have to deal someone's half-baked delusions.
     
  4. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Junior Member
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    On the cost/demand side:

    1. Battery costs are a huge proportion of the overall car costs. They have decreased by 5x from 2011-2016. Furthermore, improvements in materials, design, production and electronics means costs are still going down.

    Tesla (and presumably the Chinese battery companies) expect to half the cost of batteries to $100/kwh in the 2016-2020 timeframe. At that level, electric cars will have a lower cost of ownership than combustion engine cars in the USA. But cost-parity will come sooner in China due to the nature of its densely populated cities which means shorter journeys that require smaller and cheaper batteries.

    2. China is looking at 1 in 8 vehicle sales being electric by 2020, which would mean at least 4million vehicles per year. And if the cost of electric cars is cheaper than combustion engine cars, the market for electric cars will see explosive growth. China would be producing at least 32 million automobiles every year, which would be around 3 in 10 of all car sales in the world. And after a few years, this will decimate demand for oil, so it's no wonder that Exxon is in denial.

    3. China is setting up a comprehensive car charging infrastructure now, in anticipation of an electric car future. Remember that there are only 100,000 petrol filling stations in China.

     
    #7874 AndrewS, Sep 13, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
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  5. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    Has anyone compared central A/C (not the flimsy window units) vs charging a car battery? Not sure which one takes up more juice...

    If the current electric grid can support millions of A/C units running at the same time 24/7 especially in the summer (most two-story houses in Texas have two full central A/C units, one for downstairs and one for upstairs), charging a few cars doesn't seem to be a huge burden... my guess though...
     
  6. SamuraiBlue
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    SamuraiBlue Senior Member

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    Around 3.5kW

    http://energyusecalculator.com/electricity_centralac.htm

    But that is not the point you add on the EV power consumption amount on top of the ACs since people are not going to select between turning on the AC OR recharging the EV, most people will want both.

    Here is the chart for charging time and the required power.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charging_station#Charging_time
     
  7. vesicles
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    vesicles Senior Member

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    I'll admit that I'm not an electrical engineer. Based on why I can understand, the power value that you gave me is for every 3 hours. The website you cited has a calculator for estimating how much power I need. In a Texas summer, our central A/C is typically on half of time. So that's 12 hours a day. That would be ~42 kWh a day.

    On the Wiki page for charging electric cars, the chart for charging time and power shows that if you charge your car at night using lower power settings, you would only use 3.3 kw of power. That's less than an A/C.

    The capacity of currently available car batteries is between 20kwh and 80kwh. So at most, it's like two A/C units. It's a lot but doable. Some of my friends have 3 full central A/C units in their houses. It doesn't seem to cause any issues at all. They had full power even during hurricane Harvey, a disaster that's once in every 80 year event.

    The most common car batteries seem to be the 20kwh type. I would think that's the kind that most people can afford anyway. That's half of an A/C. It would be like breeze for most people.

    No electric company will run their grids at max capacity. Adding a few more electric devices equivalent to a central A/C should be perfectly fine. Plus, if no one uses gas any more, the fossil fuel left would be used to generate more electricity to support the increase in demand when there are more electric cars. In fact, that is the main drawback of electric cars. You are not saving energy. It's simply a difference between using fossil fuel in your own car vs. using the same amount of fossil fuel in electric generators of electric companies. Nothing saved.
     
    #7877 vesicles, Sep 13, 2017
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  8. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Junior Member
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    Except that solar and wind power are set to produce lower cost electricity than coal or gas
     
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  9. PiSigma
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    PiSigma "the engineer"

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    Didn't someone just say solar and wind are surge power generation? So how much solar is going to be available at night if there isn't much storage capacity? Need to spend money on that storage first. And wind doesn't necessarily blow during times people are charging their car. So have to depend on coal/nuclear to charge car, so that EV is still coal powered.
     
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  10. Quickie
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    Quickie Senior Member

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    The charging rate is independent of the electricity storage capacity. The charging station, especially if it's a home based one, will limit itself to a maximum power that it can draw. This is for safety reason since most power points in a house can only supply a max power of anywhere from 3KW to a few KW higher (for air-cons). The charging station, as an example, could be plug into 2 high power points for a total of 10KW.

    Whether it will safe energy will depend on how efficient the energy conversion is at the electricity generation plant.

    A higher energy conversion efficiency (from fossil fuel to electricity) of let's say 40% over that of the fuel engine of lets say 20% will provide an opportunity for energy saving, depending on how much energy is lost in the electricity transmission and how efficient is the energy conversion of the electric car, which should be much better than that of a fossil fuel engine powered car.
     
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